Could David Dahl Start in the Minors?
At this early stage of the draft season, David Dahl has become a popular target. He has a knack for hard contact, hits for power, and can swipe a bag or three. Physically, Dahl wasn’t the best or even the 10th best player to debut in 2016. His fantasy ceiling may exceed them all because of a little (big) place called Coors Field. Between the park factors and ridiculous supporting cast, Dahl is well positioned to turn in a monster season.
There’s just one teensy problem, he might get caught in a roster crunch.
Even though the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to play first base, nobody around baseball is buying that as the grand plan. The Rockies want sufficient redundancy for Desmond to play anywhere on the diamond. He’s the super utility man. This must be what they have in mind. Right?
The Rockies remain rather left-handed so they’re rumored to want a right-handed hitter. Free agency, as it currently stands, includes Chris Carter, Dae-ho Lee, Mike Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo, Trevor Plouffe, and Jose Bautista. There are just as many left-handed should-be first baseman. One or more of these players will sign a bargain contract. The Rockies should supply one such bargain offer.
If they prefer to go the trade route, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier are on the block. It’s probably possible (if not practical) to pry Wil Myers away from San Diego. The point is, the Rockies have too many options, nay upgrades, at first base to settle for Desmond.
Perhaps Colorado will take the layup. Paying very little to roster Carter, Lee, Reynolds, or Plouffe won’t step on anyone’s toes. Desmond can still make a block of starts at first base then spread the rest of his games around other positions. That keeps everyone fresher at a venue known to increase injury risk. I don’t know when Gerardo Parra would play, but that’s his fault for being terrible in 2016.
If the club is thinking bigger – I know I’d aim to contend while the roster includes any pitchers with actual success at Coors – then Dahl is going to draw the short straw. There’s nobody else. Maybe the Rockies would be willing to try Desmond for a brief period at shortstop in the event of a Trevor Story injury, but that won’t be the healthy alignment.
A real starting first baseman pushes Desmond into the outfield mix. Ok, trade Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez. One of the downsides to calling Coors home is that trade partners worry about illusory performance. Blackmon was good on the road last year, but he was terrible in 2014 and 2015. CarGo is always better at home than on the road. And I’m basing that on their context aware wRC+. If you only look at the raw numbers, the home/road splits are even starker.
It’s very likely both Blackmon and CarGo are more valuable to the Rockies than whatever they can get via trade. Outside observers say the Rockies would target pitching in any such trade. This just adds to the risk since it’s very hard to predict which pitchers will adapt to Coors Field. If history tells us anything, it’s that almost nobody adapts to Coors.
So here’s our scenario. The Rockies probably should acquire a true, mashtastic first baseman. They’re out there for the taking, and the roster has the bullets to contend. Desmond is going to start somewhere. Blackmon and Gonzalez probably won’t be traded. Only Dahl and Story are optionable*. Story is safe.
*Other players like Nolan Arenado have options too, but that’s not going to happen.
Here’s the last layer of the onion. Assuming this scenario happens, Colorado could simply keep Dahl on the active roster. The lineup juggling would be a bit of a nightmare. Somebody, probably Dahl, will settle in as the ninth man. It happened to Javier Baez at times last year.
If Dahl is only playing half the games, it makes more sense for him to continue developing at Triple-A. He only has 68 plate appearances at the top level of the minors. There are flaws aplenty for him to work on in an easier setting. And he’ll never be far from the majors.
Draft Implications
If the Rockies sign a first baseman, it will hurt Dahl’s draft stock. Whether he’s a frequently used backup or a minor leaguer, he’ll still only be one injury away from a return to the lineup. In other words, don’t overreact. Dahl is currently a borderline top 75 pick with a consensus around #100. In our hypothetical scenario, he becomes the best fantasy stash. I’d probably target him around #160 – after Marcell Ozuna but before Jay Bruce (ADP source: FantasyPros).
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Another option for Dahl is a possible trade as you mentioned. Since he had limited time in Coors last year, a small sample size limits us from seeing the effects home vs. road splits. Say he goes in a deal to CWS for Abreu or Frazier and presumably has a starting spot on Opening Day. Still a top #100 pick?
In reality, so not exclusive to CWS, is David Dahl a top 100 pick if he gets traded anywhere else? Or is he more top 150 depending on team/park? All assuming he has a starting spot on Opening Day.
Depending on the situation/expected role, he could fall anywhere from 90-200.
Dahl is the least likely of all outfielders on Colorado’s 40-man to get traded. Cargo, Blackmon, Tapia all would get moved before Dahl.
Agreed. Dahl could be traded, but it’s not going to be for someone like Jose Abreu. He’s a centerpiece like Yoan Moncada. He’d require a Chris Sale-like return. There’s nothing like that on the market.
Hypothetical but not far fetched – COL signs Trumbo (as rumored) to play 1B, Desmond has no where to play so he’s forced to LF. I have a hard time thinking Blackmon or Cargo bring back fair value in a deal considering age/contract status unless willing to trade them at a discount. Cards and Mets have been linked to Blackmon and Cargo lately (and in the past) but don’t seem like good fits currently and Mets can have McCutchen for cheaper most likely. Suddenly Dahl is a trade chip for someone like Quintana.
“He’d require a Chris Sale-like return.”
Go home, Brad. You’re drunk.
Obviously, Dahl would be part of a package. Nobody trades a prospect of Dahl’s ability for less than a non-elite return. Very unique circumstances would be required.
Dahl along with Tapia or Marquez would be a fair trade for Quintana.
Agree with Brad on this – he’d be the headliner in a major trade for someone like Sale (when he was available), Archer, Quintana…
Jose Quintana is pretty close to Sale, has another year of control plus he’s never been hurt.The White Sox would love to build a package around Dahl or Rodgers.
Just how low does “Rockies option Arenado to the minors” fall on the probability spectrum? I’m thinking the only things below it are the truly absurd:
“Rockies dig 4,000 foot pit to house the new stadium closer to sea level”
“Aliens land on Earth. Advise everyone that Trout and Kershaw are really aliens and needed back on their home planet now that they’ve had time to work on their games in the “minors” that is Earth baseball.”
Feel free to add your own
I know Desmond is not a true 1B, but he seems very likely to put up a Blackmon-type season at 1B . . . which would be better production than most of those 1B options. He also should be able to play a perfectly capable 1B defensively, even though he’s not familiar with the position . . . at least until another spot naturally opens up via trade/injury/free agency.
So with potential studs like Dahl and Tapia ready to go in the OF, would the Rockies really keep them all down to add a cheap 1B? (can you tell I own Dahl in a couple keepers?)
Using b-ref’s Neutralized batting tool, Desmond’s numbers last year would translate to 298/351/469 in Coors for an 820 OPS. That’s just not good production at 1B for Colorado. Mark Reynolds put up a pretty similar 282/356/450 line last year and the Rockies were so impressed that they didn’t offer him a contract and are still (probably) looking for a 1B. Among the 23 player seasons where a Rockies 1B had 300 PA, Reynolds’ 806 OPS was 19th. The only seasons lower than his are Ben Paulson in 2015 and 3 decline phase years from Todd Helton after back injuries had robbed him of most of his power. The next lowest after Reynolds’ is an 842 OPS by Andres Galarraga in 1995
I know that isn’t the fairest comparison because the Rockies’ 1B for about 20 years were Galarraga and then Helton back-to-back – obviously 2 very good ballplayers. However I have to think the Rockies are looking for more than an 820 OPS from 1B myself.
I agree with you, but in addition to a similar batting line, Desmond also brings much better baserunning ability and one would think better defense to the position, so that makes it a bit more of an attractive package.
babip .404, file not found.
Yea, there’ll be regression, although he’s also a much better contact hitter than a 14.9% SwStr% and he has more than .185 ISO power. Given his batted ball profiles, he’ll also maintain an elevated BABIP even if .404 is untenable.
He has terrible plate discipline in the minors and good but not great power that is propped up by Coors and their minor league parks.
He’s good, but nowhere near Moncadas level
The difference in physical ability is counteracted by his having already reached and succeeded in the majors. And he still has his full 6+ years of club control.
That’s an angle I forgot. If the Rockies starters do stay healthy, they have a chance at squeezing an 8th season out of Dahl. It’s a long long shot.
That’s a good point, Brad. I hadn’t considered it. I don’t think I believe yet that Dahl has really “succeeded in the majors.” That BABIP is obviously unsustainable. If he had a .301 BABIP instead, he would have slashed about .245/.290/.420 (and that’s only taking away some singles, not doubles).
Even with a .340 BABIP, he’s slashing .270/.315/.450. That’s his ceiling with a really high BABIP unless he gets the plate discipline under control. And that’s if he stays in Coors.
I guess it depends on how much we buy into the improved discipline in AA last year and how long that takes to translate into improvement in the majors (if ever). I’m not sold on him, especially if he is traded.