Could David Dahl Start in the Minors?

At this early stage of the draft season, David Dahl has become a popular target. He has a knack for hard contact, hits for power, and can swipe a bag or three. Physically, Dahl wasn’t the best or even the 10th best player to debut in 2016. His fantasy ceiling may exceed them all because of a little (big) place called Coors Field. Between the park factors and ridiculous supporting cast, Dahl is well positioned to turn in a monster season.

There’s just one teensy problem, he might get caught in a roster crunch.

Even though the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to play first base, nobody around baseball is buying that as the grand plan. The Rockies want sufficient redundancy for Desmond to play anywhere on the diamond. He’s the super utility man. This must be what they have in mind. Right?

The Rockies remain rather left-handed so they’re rumored to want a right-handed hitter. Free agency, as it currently stands, includes Chris Carter, Dae-ho Lee, Mike Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo, Trevor Plouffe, and Jose Bautista. There are just as many left-handed should-be first baseman. One or more of these players will sign a bargain contract. The Rockies should supply one such bargain offer.

If they prefer to go the trade route, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier are on the block. It’s probably possible (if not practical) to pry Wil Myers away from San Diego. The point is, the Rockies have too many options, nay upgrades, at first base to settle for Desmond.

Perhaps Colorado will take the layup. Paying very little to roster Carter, Lee, Reynolds, or Plouffe won’t step on anyone’s toes. Desmond can still make a block of starts at first base then spread the rest of his games around other positions. That keeps everyone fresher at a venue known to increase injury risk. I don’t know when Gerardo Parra would play, but that’s his fault for being terrible in 2016.

If the club is thinking bigger – I know I’d aim to contend while the roster includes any pitchers with actual success at Coors – then Dahl is going to draw the short straw. There’s nobody else. Maybe the Rockies would be willing to try Desmond for a brief period at shortstop in the event of a Trevor Story injury, but that won’t be the healthy alignment.

A real starting first baseman pushes Desmond into the outfield mix. Ok, trade Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez. One of the downsides to calling Coors home is that trade partners worry about illusory performance. Blackmon was good on the road last year, but he was terrible in 2014 and 2015. CarGo is always better at home than on the road. And I’m basing that on their context aware wRC+. If you only look at the raw numbers, the home/road splits are even starker.

It’s very likely both Blackmon and CarGo are more valuable to the Rockies than whatever they can get via trade. Outside observers say the Rockies would target pitching in any such trade. This just adds to the risk since it’s very hard to predict which pitchers will adapt to Coors Field. If history tells us anything, it’s that almost nobody adapts to Coors.

So here’s our scenario. The Rockies probably should acquire a true, mashtastic first baseman. They’re out there for the taking, and the roster has the bullets to contend. Desmond is going to start somewhere. Blackmon and Gonzalez probably won’t be traded. Only Dahl and Story are optionable*. Story is safe.

*Other players like Nolan Arenado have options too, but that’s not going to happen.

Here’s the last layer of the onion. Assuming this scenario happens, Colorado could simply keep Dahl on the active roster. The lineup juggling would be a bit of a nightmare. Somebody, probably Dahl, will settle in as the ninth man. It happened to Javier Baez at times last year.

If Dahl is only playing half the games, it makes more sense for him to continue developing at Triple-A. He only has 68 plate appearances at the top level of the minors. There are flaws aplenty for him to work on in an easier setting. And he’ll never be far from the majors.

Draft Implications

If the Rockies sign a first baseman, it will hurt Dahl’s draft stock. Whether he’s a frequently used backup or a minor leaguer, he’ll still only be one injury away from a return to the lineup. In other words, don’t overreact. Dahl is currently a borderline top 75 pick with a consensus around #100. In our hypothetical scenario, he becomes the best fantasy stash. I’d probably target him around #160 – after Marcell Ozuna but before Jay Bruce (ADP source: FantasyPros).