A wise man once told me, “Thirty is the new 20.” He spoke not of my dating prospects but of percentages — specifically, strikeout percentages. The gist of his sentiment was back in the olden days, a player’s fantasy value would have been harmed, perhaps irreparably, if he struck out 20-something percent of the time. Now, we see hitters subsist and more with 30-something strikeout rates — Joey Gallo, Keon Broxton, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis and Aaron Judge, to name a few.

We — or, if I dare not speak for you, you intellectual, you, then just I — have been forced to reassess how we (I) “scout” the intersection of contact and power for fantasy purposes. This monologue is peripherally relevant to the eventual subject of this post, Domingo Santana, because he, too, once ran a 30-something strikeout rate. He no longer does that, though, which is good. That’s part of the reason why I’m here. But it’s more of the icing on this cake, so allow me to bake the cake first.

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A few weeks ago, I stole RotoGraphs contributor Joe Douglas’ idea (with his permission) as I pointed out that the “generic” Tommy Pham had provided surprisingly similar offensive production in his career to the “brand name” Michael Conforto. It was a fun exercise, and one that we’re going to do again today.

To set the stage, we’re going to talk about two rookies with outfield eligibility. One receives plenty of attention and hype; the other, not so much. Mr. Generic debuted in 2016 but is still considered a rookie this season, while Mr. Brand Name debuted in 2017. Here’s how they’ve fared so far this year:

The first thing that jumps out is the nearly 100-point difference in BABIP, and the fact that Mr. Generic’s BABIP is perhaps unsustainably high. More about that in a minute.

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Every year, it seems like there’s a handful of veteran players who go overlooked by fantasy owners. Part of it is likely that these 30-somethings do not excite you anymore. You’ve been scrolling past some of these names for a decade, if not longer. Your eyes simply skim through them on their quest to find that young sleeper who’s about to break out.

Another part of the the puzzle may be that no analysts write about these guys anymore. What would anyone possibly have to say at this point about a player we’ve all been watching since 2005? “He’s still here”? That’s no fun — at least, it’s far less fun than projecting the next breakout performer.

As someone who understands that life isn’t always fun, I hereby declare my intent to remind you that the following three players are worth owning, despite their relatively high ‘old and boring’ levels.

Shin-Soo Choo (17% Yahoo, 17.5% ESPN, 46% CBS, 92.1% Ottoneu)

I understand there might not be anything sexy about owning Choo these days. The guy does turn 35 next month, and spent most of last year struggling with injuries. However, the fact that he’s owned in about 17% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues is entirely unforgivable. Check out these numbers and tell me why he’s on your waiver wire.

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Last week, I examined a list of hitters who were near the top of the league in exit velocity, while also lagging behind their peers in terms of expected results on their batted balls. For reference, I showed the following chart to explain how batters have performed during 2017 (updated for current games over the past week):

I didn’t do well at explaining this chart, last week. To reiterate, at the footer of the table you can see see that there are currently 395 players with over 30 balls in play in 2017. The numbers shown in each z-score row, display the average metrics for all players with exit velocities in excess of that performance level. For example, those with an exit velocity z-score in excess of 2 have average an exit velocity of 93.96, with an expected OBA of .406 (on same scale as wOBA). Please let me know if any confusion surrounds this chart.

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Since statcast has been added to MLB parks, exit velocities and launch angles have been a hot topic. Some of this is as simple as a players ground ball rates decreasing, while others dive into a little more detail. For example, showing that a player is hitting more balls into the ideal launch angle ranges for batted balls (19-26 degrees). Regardless, it can be hard to keep track of these changes, or to understand what it all means if you are not familiar with the data. Luckily, Andrew Pertpetua put together this primer. You should definitely read it if you have not already. As Andrew notes, there are a few takeaways.

1. Exit Velocity is more predictive than launch angle in terms of measuring success.
2. Exit Velocity peaks between -10 and 10 degrees.

This follows along with what we should intuitively expect. The harder a player hits the ball, the more likely he is to be making good contact, which should lead to better expected results. Certainly, this isn’t an absolute, but it’s an okay starting point. The less directly a ball is hit – positive or negative launch angles – the greater a sacrifice in exit velocity we would expect to see, at the benefit of a potentially more ideal launch angle. Read the rest of this entry »

As a Marwin Gonzalez owner, I’ve considered writing about him several times over the season’s first two months. I took a $1 flier on him in a 4×4 ottoneu Classic league this offseason, and at the time my expectations could be roughly summarized as “There’s worse ways to fill out a roster.” In most fantasy formats, Marwin qualifies at every position except pitcher and catcher, and he was coming off a season that saw him produce 25 HR+SB. Like I said, there’s worse ways to spend a dollar on a bench player.

Every time I’ve thought previously about writing up Marwin this year, I got hung up on the fact that I had absolutely no idea if his breakout was for real, or if it was just a fluky hot start. Actually, if I’m being completely honest, the whole reason I decided to write this piece you’re currently reading is because I still don’t know. In the following paragraphs, I invite you to join me as I take a stab at figuring out Marwin Gonzalez.

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As a RotoGraphs reader, I’ve always enjoyed Joe Douglas’s “Buying Generic” series. In past articles, he has compellingly compared “generic” players like Ryon Healy, Logan Forsythe, and Justin Bour to “brand name” ones like Jake Lamb, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana.

The fantasy relevance of the exercise is obvious: Buying generic allows owners to acquire players cheaply and with relative ease, instead of paying a premium (whether in a trade or in a draft or auction) for a brand-name player.

For today’s comparison, we’re going to analyze two players who have played in parts of the last three seasons, but neither has eclipsed 350 plate appearances in any one year. Both appear on their way to full-time jobs in 2017 and beyond.

Here’s how Mr. Generic and Mr. Brand Name have fared since 2015:

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Cody Bellinger has been superb in his call up with the Dodgers, hitting 6 home runs in 65 plate appearances. With Andrew Toles out for the season with a torn ACL, the likelihood of Bellinger staying in the big leagues has improved. However, what should reasonably be expected for the Dodgers phenom for the rest of 2017? It doesn’t take an advanced statistician to understand that the .446 wOBA he has posted thus far will regress, but the question is how far? Does Bellinger’s performance line up with what was expected? The first place I want to start is with Bellinger’s scouting report courtesy of our own Eric Longenhagen. (Trimmed it down a bit)

…That power comes from the monster hacks that Bellinger takes in all counts. He doesn’t protect or shorten up with two strikes and instead he’s constantly threatening low-flying aircraft with his incredible torque, hand speed and uppercut swing. This results in lots of airborne contact (majestic blasts as well as weak pop ups) and plenty of strikeouts… Bellinger has shown the ability to stay back on breaking balls, as well the ability to turn on plus velocity in on the hands and, while he does try to pull everything, he has solid plate coverage…

He’s also seen time in the outfield, including center, and there are scouts who think he could play all three outfield spots in a pinch…

There’s some risk here because of the swing and miss, and I expect major-league pitchers will feed Bellinger a steady diet of offspeed pitches, especially back-foot sliders, once they see the swings he takes…

Jeff Zimmerman has already dived into Bellinger’s defense in the OF, which may be better than expected. While defense isn’t really pertinent to our discussions for ottoneu/fantasy, (Bellinger has already secured OF eligibility for 2018), Jeff does good work. If you’re not reading it, you’re missing out. Read the rest of this entry »

#2: April 24
#1: April 13

If you’ve tuned in before, you know what this is about. If not: the Small-Sample Normalization Service (SSNS) seeks to, ah, normalize a player’s performance in the context of his own previous achievements (or lack thereof). Most of us are human, and our humanity leaves us vulnerable to the biases that cloud rational thought and critical analysis. Such vulnerability is eagerly exploited by the small sample size, never more so than in April. While midseason small samples cower under the cover of hundreds more plate appearances, April performances have no such luxury.

A month’s worth of playing time is certainly more worthwhile to assess than one week’s worth, but 30 innings or 100 plate appearances can still be pretty volatile. Here are a few still-small samples that recently caught my eye.

All graphs pulled prior to yesterday’s games.

Name: Byron Buxton, MIN OF
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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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