Buying Generic: An Underrated Comp for a Budding Star

As a RotoGraphs reader, I’ve always enjoyed Joe Douglas’s “Buying Generic” series. In past articles, he has compellingly compared “generic” players like Ryon Healy, Logan Forsythe, and Justin Bour to “brand name” ones like Jake Lamb, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana.

The fantasy relevance of the exercise is obvious: Buying generic allows owners to acquire players cheaply and with relative ease, instead of paying a premium (whether in a trade or in a draft or auction) for a brand-name player.

For today’s comparison, we’re going to analyze two players who have played in parts of the last three seasons, but neither has eclipsed 350 plate appearances in any one year. Both appear on their way to full-time jobs in 2017 and beyond.

Here’s how Mr. Generic and Mr. Brand Name have fared since 2015:

They’ve had strikingly similar outcomes. Mr. Brand Name has about 40% more plate appearances, and has struck out 6% less often, but the slash lines, wOBAs, and wRC+s are virtually identical.

Mr. Generic is running a much higher BABIP, and it could be cause for concern, especially because of the small number of career plate appearances. His strikeout rate, too, borders on uncomfortably high.

Next let’s examine their respective batted ball profiles:

The soft-, medium-, and hard-hit rates are just about identical, but everything else is different. Mr. Generic hits ground balls about 10% more often than Mr. Brand Name (which could explain the higher BABIP). Both are running HR/FB rates much higher than the ~ 12% league average from 2015-2017. This could be cause for legitimate concern, especially for Mr. Generic, whose HR/FB rate is fourth-highest in all of baseball since 2015 (min. 400 PA). Major regression in that department could have a drastic impact on his overall production (i.e., wOBA).

By now you’re probably anxious to know who’s who. I won’t keep you waiting any longer:

Mr. Generic is Tommy Pham, and Mr. Brand Name is Michael Conforto.

Conforto, 24, is five years younger than Pham. His strikeout rate is more manageable, his BABIP is more realistic, and his combination of youth and power is beyond intriguing.

Pham, however, has been more or less just as good since 2015 (granted, in far fewer plate appearances), while receiving much less attention.

Yes, the HR/FB rate is elevated and will probably fall quite a bit, hurting his overall numbers. Also, his .346 BABIP since 2015 is significantly higher than the .332 BABIP Steamer projects ROS.

However, on the positive side, Pham’s strikeout rate this year is just 23.2% in 82 plate appearances, and he has five home runs and four steals (two CS). Most importantly, he appears to have a path to a full-time job.

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said before Monday’s game, “When Stephen [Piscotty] makes it back [from personal leave], which should be soon, we’re in a spot where Tommy’s earned the right to keep playing.”

Stephen Piscotty will play right field, and Dexter Fowler will play center, so that leaves left field, where Randal Grichuk normally plays. However, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak announced before Monday’s game that Grichuk was optioned to high Class A Palm Beach. Pham had been been playing extremely well, Grichuk had not, and the team made a move to give Pham a chance at a full-time role.

With a clear path to playing time, the issue of platoon splits comes to mind. In this department, Pham actually holds an advantage over Conforto. In 95 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Conforto has a .245 wOBA and 50 wRC+. Against righties, he has a .372 wOBA and 137 wRC+. As for Pham, he has a .345 wOBA and 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 239 career plate appearances, and a .331 wOBA and 108 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 117 plate appearances.

Conforto is doing his best to quell the notion that he can’t hit lefties: he has a .458 wOBA in 27 plate appearances against them this year. But still, the overall numbers (.245 wOBA) are much worse, so it remains to be seen if he can consistently handle left-handed pitching.

Almost everything “remains to be seen” for these two promising players without much big-league experience. Both are at a point where they’re probably going to receive full-time at-bats after being relegated to part-time roles in the past. Conforto almost certainly has the higher ceiling, and the projections like him much more than they like Pham. Steamer projects a .347 wOBA ROS for Conforto, and a .324 wOBA ROS for Pham. Conforto’s youth and superior projections make him a much more attractive option.

In fantasy, however, no one is selling cheap shares of Michael Conforto, and Pham is owned in just 18% of Ottoneu leagues. Conforto may have the brighter future, but Pham has been providing similar offensive production at virtually zero cost. As is often the case, the better value may come from buying generic.