Syndication: The Enquirer

Previous Outfield Reviews

• Marsee, Caglianone, Carpenter, & Crews
• Marte, Doyle, Stowers, & Butler
• Nimmo, Ward, Profar, Happ
• Simpson, Adell, Rafaela, & Kwan

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The rankings beat marches on. Yesterday, you saw my 4×4 rankings for outfield and today I’ll share my FanGraphs Points rankings, as well as thoughts on the other formats.

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After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: MI | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

David Banks-Imagn Images

Changelog

• 12/19/2025 – First Release
• 1/7/2026 – Update with summaries written for Harris, Pages, Anthony, Lile, Burleson, Trout, Wood, Rooker, Langford, and Chourio.

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on a standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Full Rankings Without Tiers

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I started with the corner infielders and middle infielders before the holidays and will wrap up with pitchers later this week.

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Teoscar Hernández, OF
Salary: $18, $19, $20
Average Salary: $21
2025 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.04

A big bounce back season during his first year in Los Angeles had me hopeful that Teoscar Hernández’s down year in Seattle in 2023 was a one year blip. A year later, it kind of seems like the bounce back was the blip after Hernández posted a 102 wRC+ in ‘25, slightly worse than the 107 he posted with the Mariners a few years ago. Entering his age-33 season this year, which Hernández should we expect to see in 2026?

Let’s get the good news out of the way first: Hernández’s contact quality looked pretty good despite the underwhelming results. His hard hit rate was still well above average, and even though his barrel rate fell by more than three points, it was still barely outside the top quartile among qualified batters. That drop in barrel rate might have had an outsized effect on his bottom line results however. His expected wOBA on contact fell from .457 in 2024 to .403 in ‘25 despite no significant change to his batted ball mix. He wasn’t pounding the ball into the ground more often, he was simply less productive on the contact he was making. His average bat speed was down a little, but not dramatically which does provide some hope that he can rediscover his knack for barrelling up pitches.

The other concerning trend last year was a walk rate that fell to the lowest it’s been in his career. Hernández has never really been a patient hitter, but his walk rate usually fell right around league average when he was a middle-of-the-order run producer in Toronto. In 2025, it dropped to 4.8%. There were no dramatic changes to his underlying plate discipline metrics which makes his walk rate even more of a mystery. His swing rate in three-ball counts was 72.7%, much higher than his norm and the second highest three-ball swing rate in baseball. That tells me he was trying to swing his way out of his struggles rather than maintaining his measured aggression that served him so well in the past.

Steamer is essentially splitting the difference between Hernández’s down seasons in 2023 and ‘25 and the rest of his productive history. That’s probably a pretty reasonable expectation — he’s getting to the age where power output starts to slide and he doesn’t have the kind of approach that would allow him to thrive once his bat speed falls off a cliff. I think he’s probably got one or two more productive seasons left in his bat and there’s always the possibility he bounces all the way back to his ‘24 level.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m cutting all three of my shares of Hernández. His projection isn’t terrible but two out of the last three years have been extremely disappointing. I’m just not comfortable paying that much salary to see if he can figure things out in 2026 as he enters the decline phase of his career.

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Kerry Carpenter, OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $10
2025 P/G: 4.44
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.37

How do you evaluate a part-time player who absolutely scorches the ball as the strong side of a platoon but useless when facing same-handed pitching. And what if that part-time player was coming off a down season where many of his offensive metrics took significant steps backwards. That’s the dilemma posed by Kerry Carpenter.

Because he’s the strong side of a platoon, Carpenter’s fantasy performance needs all sorts of context to fully understand. He’s primarily used against right-handed pitching and often pinch hits late in games if he isn’t starting. Those extra appearances off the bench artificially depress his overall points per game, though we can use points per game started, or more simply, points per plate appearance, to cut through some of that noise. Here’s a look at the various lenses we can use to clear up our evaluation of his production:

When looking at points earned in games he started, Carpenter wasn’t too far off his production from his breakout two years ago and he looks a lot better from a points per plate appearance stand point as well.

The source of his struggles in 2025 seem to stem from a 54 point drop in BABIP and a 3.5 drop in walk rate. All of his underlying batted ball and plate discipline metrics look in line with his established norms and he even posted a career-best 22.8% strikeout rate last year.

Keep or cut?

I’m having a hard time justifying keeping a platoon outfielder for $15, even if he absolutely crushes right-handed pitching. The highs of 2024 are probably a high-water mark for him and Steamer isn’t predicting a big step forward for him in 2026. $10 is a more reasonable value for a really good part-time player like Carpenter, but a $15 salary gets squeezed off the roster.

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Trent Grisham, OF
Salary: $7, $5, $4
Average Salary: $5
2025 P/G: 5.35
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.19

After settling in as a defense-first center fielder in San Diego, Trent Grisham enjoyed a huge breakout in New York in 2025. He’s shown he’s capable of producing at the plate in the distant past — he posted a 110 wRC+ across his first two seasons in San Diego in 2020 and ‘21 — but hasn’t hit very well until last year. All of a sudden, he started mashing the ball and wound up blasting a career-high 34 home runs in 2025.

Grisham has always had a patient approach at the plate and his batted ball quality significantly improved after joining the Yankees in 2024. The biggest difference was turning his sometimes overly patient approach into selective aggression on pitches in the zone early in the count. Ambushing pitchers when they tried to steal strikes worked wonders for Grisham and represents a real change in approach for him.

Surprisingly, Steamer believes in the changes Grisham made. It would have been easy to write off his breakout as a one-year blip, but the projections are calling for a solid follow-up season, though not necessarily up to the heights of his breakout.

Keep or cut?

I see the improvements in Grisham’s approach and batted ball quality and I’m willing to bet that they stick around in 2026. I’m keeping all three of my shares.

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

• Marsee, Caglianone, Carpenter, & Crews
• Marte, Doyle, Stowers, & Butler
• Nimmo, Ward, Profar, & Happ

I’m examining outfielders starting around 150 ADP. A few guys have moved, so a few went early in recent drafts. Read the rest of this entry »

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

• Marsee, Caglianone, Carpenter, & Crews
• Marte, Doyle, Stowers, & Butler

I’m working my way down the outfielders and first big tier drop. An 18 pick difference between Ward and Profar (there are others between Nimmo and Ward). I’m not sure what to make of it just yet. Read the rest of this entry »

Syndication: The Enquirer

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Andy Pages) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later. Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Addison Barger) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later.

Note: I plan on using the the Final Take writeups in my outfielder rankings when they come up in little over a month.

Dylan Crews (Pick 146): There were high hopes for the 23-year-old top prospect (we had him ranked as #3 overall prospect) coming into the 2025 season. He was limited to 322 PA over 85 Games because of a mid-May oblique strain. He did not return until mid-August. Before going on the IL, he had a .620 OPS and a .643 OPS after returning. While the values seemed similar, he was a different hitter.

Before the injury, he posted a 28% K% (.196 AVG), and he was able to drop it to a 19% K% after the injury (.222 AVG). The improved contact came with a tradeoff, with all his power metrics down (.158 ISO to .126 ISO, 15% Barrel% to 5% Barrel%). He showed no signs of gaining his early-season power.

On the hitting front (I’ll get to the stolen bases in a bit), he has the deadly combination of too many Strikeouts for his limited power. On their own, they aren’t an issue, but the combination is. Here are the hitters around him in HardHit%-K% (min 300 PA).

Some upward regression is expected since he has the lowest OPS of the group. Also, it’s nice to see Greene, Robert, and Edwards on the list since they got drafted ahead of Crews. Overall though, it’s an uninspiring list.

The 17 SB saved Crews’ fantasy value, and the hope is that he’ll double them with a mid-30s total. There could even be hope of more since he stole 11 bags before going on the IL and just six after returning. Or he could minimize his injury risk and have a mid-20s stolen base total.

Final Take: As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Jakob Marsee (Pick 148): The one person I wrote about in my waiver wire report that I’ve got the most feedback on was Marsee. After the trade deadline, a spot opened up for him with Jesús Sánchez going to the Astros. All I wrote was:

Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.

In fairness, I didn’t care much about his overall game, but just the 57 bases he stole. At that point in the season in a Roto league, several teams could use a boost in stolen bases, and that’s what the 24-year-old provided … and more. In 235 PA (55 G), he had 5 HR, 14 SB, and a .292 AVG. While he didn’t start batting at the top of the lineup, he eventually got there by rotating through the top three spots. So, what to expect in 2026?

Starting off, here are players with similar projections to his Steamer600, where he ranks as the 144th-best option.

Not the league’s best hitters, but all provide a good number of stolen bases and a dozen or so home runs if they are given a full-time role. But those batting averages. Woof.

Our 3-year ZiPS projections agree with Steamer, non-zero power, and a good number of stolen bases, but with a near .200 AVG.

The disconnect between Marsee’s 2025 season and this projection is the 60 points or more in batting average. I’m going to go against this projection (hopefully, a clearer picture emerges once other projections become available).

I can see why the projections are not a fan of him after, in the minors, he posted a .200 AVG in ’24 and a .246 AVG in ’24. Those are over 1000 PA against weaker competition to help drag down his overall projection. On the positive side:

1. He posted a .283 xAVG, not much lower than his .292 AVG.
2. He maintains a reasonable strikeout rate and won’t need a high BABIP to keep his batting average up.
3. I have three batted ball and swing comps I can run. They average out to a .245 AVG and .280 BABIP. By increasing his rate stats by 13 points, the comps are better, but still not great.

Final Take: Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jac Caglianone (Pick 161): Caglianone’s 2025 minor league stats (1.025 OPS) compared to Nick Kurtz (1.090 OPS), but they were opposites once promoted to the majors. Kurtz nearly matched his minor league production with a 1.002 OPS. Caglianone was at half that number (.532 OPS).

Caglianone dealt with a mid-season hamstring strain, but the effects of it didn’t drag him down since he hit worse before going on the IL (.485 OPS) than after it (.643 OPS). No reasonable fantasy manager is aiming for a .643 OPS with an earlier round pick.

He struggled in all aspects of his game, with the main drags being a .172 BABIP and a 50% GB%, especially with a Sprint Speed in the bottom third of the league. He’s not beating out many throws to first base. Additionally, his power was good but not elite.

I hate to go with the answer (upward) “regression”, but all his comps and projections point to a .245 to .250 AVG. Say, he hits .250 with 25 HR (if he repeats 2025, he should have a high teens home run number) and no stolen bases. Those numbers are comparable to the Andrew Vaughn, Brett Baty, and Josh Bell level of batter. Not a top-10 round talent.

Now, if Caglianone can push those numbers to 30 and a .265 AVG, he’s more in the Riley Greene and Austin Riley talent level. Or he could repeat his 2025 season and be unrosterable. Nobody knows.

Final Take: Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Kerry Carpenter (Pick 163): As long as he’s healthy (see 2024), Carpenter is the easiest 25 HR, 0 SB, .265 AVG, and 460 PA projection. In two of his last three seasons, these numbers were almost identical, and the value wasn’t there in 2024 when he dealt with a back injury. In 2025, he came in as the 122nd-rated hitter and the 116th in 2023. A safe bet would be between the 110th and 130th hitter in 2026.

The 28-year-old sees limited at-bats because he struggles against lefties. Over his career, he has a .866 OPS against righties and a .606 OPS against lefties. He didn’t show much improvement last season with a .638 OPS against lefties.

With his consistency, the key is to find any possible upside. The most obvious would be batting against lefties, where he’d see his three counting stats go up but his batting average drop. There aren’t any other areas for him to improve unless he goes full Josh Naylor and starts stealing bases out of nowhere. He is who we thought he was.

Final Take: While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.