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Previous Outfield Reviews

• Marsee, Caglianone, Carpenter, & Crews
• Marte, Doyle, Stowers, & Butler
• Nimmo, Ward, Profar, Happ

I’m examining outfielders starting around 150 ADP. A few guys have moved, so a few went early in recent drafts. Read the rest of this entry »

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Previous Outfield Reviews

• Marsee, Caglianone, Carpenter, & Crews
• Marte, Doyle, Stowers, & Butler

I’m working my way down the outfielders and first big tier drop. An 18 pick difference between Ward and Profar (there are others between Nimmo and Ward). I’m not sure what to make of it just yet. Read the rest of this entry »

Syndication: The Enquirer

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Andy Pages) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later. Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Addison Barger) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later.

Note: I plan on using the the Final Take writeups in my outfielder rankings when they come up in little over a month.

Dylan Crews (Pick 146): There were high hopes for the 23-year-old top prospect (we had him ranked as #3 overall prospect) coming into the 2025 season. He was limited to 322 PA over 85 Games because of a mid-May oblique strain. He did not return until mid-August. Before going on the IL, he had a .620 OPS and a .643 OPS after returning. While the values seemed similar, he was a different hitter.

Before the injury, he posted a 28% K% (.196 AVG), and he was able to drop it to a 19% K% after the injury (.222 AVG). The improved contact came with a tradeoff, with all his power metrics down (.158 ISO to .126 ISO, 15% Barrel% to 5% Barrel%). He showed no signs of gaining his early-season power.

On the hitting front (I’ll get to the stolen bases in a bit), he has the deadly combination of too many Strikeouts for his limited power. On their own, they aren’t an issue, but the combination is. Here are the hitters around him in HardHit%-K% (min 300 PA).

Some upward regression is expected since he has the lowest OPS of the group. Also, it’s nice to see Greene, Robert, and Edwards on the list since they got drafted ahead of Crews. Overall though, it’s an uninspiring list.

The 17 SB saved Crews’ fantasy value, and the hope is that he’ll double them with a mid-30s total. There could even be hope of more since he stole 11 bags before going on the IL and just six after returning. Or he could minimize his injury risk and have a mid-20s stolen base total.

Final Take: As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Jakob Marsee (Pick 148): The one person I wrote about in my waiver wire report that I’ve got the most feedback on was Marsee. After the trade deadline, a spot opened up for him with Jesús Sánchez going to the Astros. All I wrote was:

Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.

In fairness, I didn’t care much about his overall game, but just the 57 bases he stole. At that point in the season in a Roto league, several teams could use a boost in stolen bases, and that’s what the 24-year-old provided … and more. In 235 PA (55 G), he had 5 HR, 14 SB, and a .292 AVG. While he didn’t start batting at the top of the lineup, he eventually got there by rotating through the top three spots. So, what to expect in 2026?

Starting off, here are players with similar projections to his Steamer600, where he ranks as the 144th-best option.

Not the league’s best hitters, but all provide a good number of stolen bases and a dozen or so home runs if they are given a full-time role. But those batting averages. Woof.

Our 3-year ZiPS projections agree with Steamer, non-zero power, and a good number of stolen bases, but with a near .200 AVG.

The disconnect between Marsee’s 2025 season and this projection is the 60 points or more in batting average. I’m going to go against this projection (hopefully, a clearer picture emerges once other projections become available).

I can see why the projections are not a fan of him after, in the minors, he posted a .200 AVG in ’24 and a .246 AVG in ’24. Those are over 1000 PA against weaker competition to help drag down his overall projection. On the positive side:

1. He posted a .283 xAVG, not much lower than his .292 AVG.
2. He maintains a reasonable strikeout rate and won’t need a high BABIP to keep his batting average up.
3. I have three batted ball and swing comps I can run. They average out to a .245 AVG and .280 BABIP. By increasing his rate stats by 13 points, the comps are better, but still not great.

Final Take: Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jac Caglianone (Pick 161): Caglianone’s 2025 minor league stats (1.025 OPS) compared to Nick Kurtz (1.090 OPS), but they were opposites once promoted to the majors. Kurtz nearly matched his minor league production with a 1.002 OPS. Caglianone was at half that number (.532 OPS).

Caglianone dealt with a mid-season hamstring strain, but the effects of it didn’t drag him down since he hit worse before going on the IL (.485 OPS) than after it (.643 OPS). No reasonable fantasy manager is aiming for a .643 OPS with an earlier round pick.

He struggled in all aspects of his game, with the main drags being a .172 BABIP and a 50% GB%, especially with a Sprint Speed in the bottom third of the league. He’s not beating out many throws to first base. Additionally, his power was good but not elite.

I hate to go with the answer (upward) “regression”, but all his comps and projections point to a .245 to .250 AVG. Say, he hits .250 with 25 HR (if he repeats 2025, he should have a high teens home run number) and no stolen bases. Those numbers are comparable to the Andrew Vaughn, Brett Baty, and Josh Bell level of batter. Not a top-10 round talent.

Now, if Caglianone can push those numbers to 30 and a .265 AVG, he’s more in the Riley Greene and Austin Riley talent level. Or he could repeat his 2025 season and be unrosterable. Nobody knows.

Final Take: Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Kerry Carpenter (Pick 163): As long as he’s healthy (see 2024), Carpenter is the easiest 25 HR, 0 SB, .265 AVG, and 460 PA projection. In two of his last three seasons, these numbers were almost identical, and the value wasn’t there in 2024 when he dealt with a back injury. In 2025, he came in as the 122nd-rated hitter and the 116th in 2023. A safe bet would be between the 110th and 130th hitter in 2026.

The 28-year-old sees limited at-bats because he struggles against lefties. Over his career, he has a .866 OPS against righties and a .606 OPS against lefties. He didn’t show much improvement last season with a .638 OPS against lefties.

With his consistency, the key is to find any possible upside. The most obvious would be batting against lefties, where he’d see his three counting stats go up but his batting average drop. There aren’t any other areas for him to improve unless he goes full Josh Naylor and starts stealing bases out of nowhere. He is who we thought he was.

Final Take: While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.

The outfield pool thins out every season and it seems to happen quickly this season. Here is how I would approach them when creating a draft plan. 

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Sunday morning, at 7 am (which felt like 6 after springing forward), I sat down at my computer, started the auction for Ottoneu league 1199 and immediately dropped $88 on Juan Soto. Spending $88 on one player isn’t something I would typically do and (as much as I would like to) I can’t blame the early hour. When prepping for the draft a couple of days earlier, I had put $90 as a target price for Soto…and then upped it to $95. $88 wasn’t me panicking, sleep-bidding, or just going all out to get my guy – it was very much the plan. And it’s all because OF has become so deep that it’s shallow.

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The Outfield & THE BAT episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

THE BAT Projections

• Projections accuracy contest on FantasyPros
  • What is the best way to test projections accuracy?
• What are the key components of a projection system?
• What is the difference between THE BAT & THE BAT X?
• THE BAT methodolgy
  • Details on weighting of years
  • Runs & RBI
  • Stolen bases
  • Accounting for park factors for new stadium dimensions

Strategy Section

• Positional Eligibilty
  • Which is more valuable for 2025 – 2B, 3B or OF?
  • The value of multi-position eligible players
• Outfield strategy
  • Player pool
  • Should you draft an elite outfielder?
  • Are there certain statistics that you should acquire from your outfielders?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Outfielders
  • Anthony Santander
  • Taylor Ward
  • Nick Castellanos
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Lane Thomas
  • George Springer
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Matt Wallner
    • Board bet !

Injury Update

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Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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After a year hiatus, I’ll be presenting my Ottoneu tiered positional rankings alongside Chad. If you’re wondering about the format and methodology, you can find all of that in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players. Generally, if you’re able to fill at least three of your OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, you can grab a handful of low cost players to mix and match and platoon based on matchups.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys at the top of the rankings. Chad has Judge in a tier all on his own above Soto but I think they’re closer in value simply based on Soto’s age. On that basis alone, you could make an argument that Soto should be ranked first — I won’t make that argument, but you could.

I understand the trepidation behind Chad ranking Acuña lower in his rankings, but the projections absolutely believe that he’ll return from his knee injury and simply continue producing like one of the best players in baseball. It probably won’t be as simple as that, but the talent is undeniable and he’s still just 27 years old.

I also have Tucker and Tatis Jr. swapped in the rankings and that’s mostly due to the wide gap in the projections between the two. There’s a pretty significant cliff between the two of them, and all things considered, I’d rather have Tucker around $50 than Tatis Jr. at the same price.

Although they’re in the same tier as Chad, I’ve ranked that trio of young outfielders a little lower ordinally. Both Carroll and Rodríguez struggled to some degree in 2024 and Chourio only just got his first taste of the big leagues last year. The sky’s the limit for all three of them, but I think you’re going to suffer though some growing pains with all of them before they really hit their ceiling.

I originally had Trout in the tier above in my first draft of these rankings but I think I agree with Chad; we really just don’t know what to expect from him anymore and the reality is that you’re probably paying for a partial season and will be pleasantly surprised if he can stay healthy for 150 games.

I also have Rooker a tier above Chad though ordinally ranked the same. I believe in the changes he’s made to his plate approach last year and the contact quality is undeniable. Plus, he’ll be playing in a much friendlier home ballpark in Sacramento.

This is a really interesting tier because you’ll find stable veterans who will consistently produce in Yelich, Suzuki, and Reynolds alongside youngsters who broke out last year in Duran, Greene, Merrill. Do you want that stability or would you rather dream on a guy who could grow? I think most Ottoneu players would say the latter, which means the former is a little undervalued, especially for teams who need just a piece or two to push for a championship.

I like Duran a bit more than Chad and a lot more than the projections. Duran improved his barrel rate by nearly four points while simultaneously improving his plate discipline in his breakout 2024 season. Steamer sees a pretty significant step back from that level of production but I believe in the changes and think he can replicate it this season.

For Soler and Bellinger, I think their new home ballparks will give them both a boost into a higher tier.

Lee and Buxton both have great projections but their health is a huge question mark. If you’re okay with that risk, they could both be really solid players for your team, except they may only be available for half a season.

Friedl is probably the biggest disagreement between me and Chad’s rankings. I get that all of Friedl’s underlying batted ball metrics look pretty terrible, but his plate approach is stellar and I think there’s a bit of Isaac Paredes in him. His pull rate was over 48% in 2024 and I think he’s selective enough to do damage on his pulled contact while still slapping singles around the field. The biggest reason his production fell last year was because his BABIP cratered to .229; in 2023 when he posted a 115 wRC+, his BABIP was just a hair above league average at .308. He also doesn’t have a traditional platoon split; rather, he has a reverse split where he’s been able to thrive against left-handed pitching by putting the ball in play while reserving all of his pulled and elevated contact against right-handed pitching.

I think the other big difference between me and Chad — and this is going to be true for every position — is that I just don’t value prospects all that highly. If I’m rostering a prospect, I want them to be nearly MLB-ready, have a clear path to playing time in the near future, and they need to have a high FV grade. Rostering a 50 FV prospect who is two to three years away from even sniffing the majors just doesn’t feel like good value to me. By the time they’re established and producing for your fantasy team, their salary is likely to be $5-$7 higher than what you’re rostering them for currently. That’s why there’s that group of prospects at the tail end of my $0-$1 tier who are all ranked higher by Chad.

I typically start with catcher and work my way around the infield, but I went straight to the outfield grass this year. Is it because OF is the most important position? Or because I have deep thoughts about OF this year? No, it is because it covers the most players which makes it the most painful to write notes for, and I wanted to be done with it.

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