Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best baseball prospect in the world. He’s better than most recent #1 overall prospects. He’s the best offensive prospect since at least Kris Bryant (ROY + MVP), and many would say you’d have to go back much further to Miggy or even Pujols to get a true comparison. For some scouts he possesses the seemingly impossible combination of both an 80 grade hit tool and an 80 grade power profile. His batter’s box skills have HOF lineage and yet somehow he has done nothing but exceed expectations (batting .402 in AA at age 19 helps). He already has the look and potential of an all-time great.  Best of all, Vlad, Jr. will debut in 2019.

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It’s prospect season (thank goodness, as nothing else is happening).  Nearly one year ago I borrowed from the great work by Eric and Kiley here and applied some fantasy context to their overall Top 100 prospect rankings from 2018.  We’ll do something similar for 2019, but before the full frenzy of this season’s prospect rankings reaches it’s peak, I thought it prudent to review prospect perceptions from this time last year to see if we can learn anything.

From last year’s post, the same purpose applies:

The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).

For comparison, last year’s comments are at the top, followed by a value trend and general update on where things appear to be for each prospect heading into 2019.

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At first glance, Max Kepler had a very Max Kepler year. In several key categories, he was pretty much the same player he’s always been, which is to say that he once again came close to, but failed to achieve, league average offensive output:

Where it really counts, in wOBA and wRC+, Kepler has been consistent—but consistently underwhelming. Skimming over these results, one would be inclined to conclude that the Twins are still waiting for Kepler to break out.

But ask anyone in the Twins front office, and they’d likely say that Kepler broke out last season, beneath our noses. And indeed, looking under the hood, we find several reasons to reach that same conclusion for ourselves:

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Warning: This genre of post may not appeal to most readers. I don’t want to waste your time if it’s not your thing. Hereafter I’ll pull back the curtains to review of performance in two “expert” leagues: FanGraphs Staff leagues #1 and #2, both constituting my first foray into the ottoneu world.

This is about accountability, which is something I am, as some would say, “all about.” It’s really easy to parade your victories; it’s more difficult to advertise and own your losses, both regading overall performance (league titles and return on investment) and also player-specific analysis. I’m eager to remind readers I called a Jose Ramirez breakout in 2015 (and, again, in 2016, when it actually happened), an Austin Barnes “breakout” in 2017, and Luke Weaver and Madison Bumgarner implosions prior to 2018. What I decline to admit, though, is, in the posts to which I just linked, I declared I’d fade Justin Verlander hard in 2016, when he won 16 games with a 3.04 ERA, or that I thought Chris Davis might out-earn Giancarlo Stanton. Sometimes, The Process^TM finds diamonds in the rough; other times, it mistakes turd-shaped rough for diamonds.

I can chalk those L’s up to a lack of experience and knowledge. I’ll readily admit some of my analyses from only a couple of years ago make me cringe. But I also know that even great calls can fall victim to variance or misfortune (which is why I refreshed my Ramirez breakout pick from 2015 for 2016, and my Barnes breakout pick from 2016 for 2017 — and, spoiler, probably again for 2019). Some losses are unearned, akin to a quality start with a bullpen implosion. Others are downright bad. But, I stand by them! I once believed them. It’s just how it goes.

It’s my first time doing this. Just figured it was high time to hold myself accountable and try to learn from my league-specific performances, both profitable and otherwise.

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The ottoneu keeper deadline has come and gone. The last week of January is always a frenzy of last minute trades and keeper decisions. I know I was up until midnight on January 31 negotiating a variety of swaps around the fringes of my rosters.

In recent seasons, I’ve developed a general approach to ottoneu FGpts formats – specifically with regards to offseason trading, the keeper deadline, and the draft. While I remain a huge proponent of zigging while others zag, I’ve also become rather predictable. This concerns me. However, the success rate and rationale behind my approach are air tight.

And so, what follows are three ottoneu rosters. I expect all three to finish somewhere around first place. Let’s use the comments to discuss the how’s and why’s.

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If you’re participating in an ottoneu league, chances are it’s reached a frenzied pitch over the last few days. The winter keeper deadline is tonight, January 31 at 11:59pm ET. All trades and cuts must be executed by that time.

For last minute keeper, cut, and trade advice, I recommend joining my personal BaseballATeam Discord server. Use the #ottoneu thread. The knowledgeable community of superfans loves to offer their opinions, and I’ll be around intermittently whilst tending to my own ottoneu decisions.

What follows are a series of deadline deals I struck earlier in the week. I’m updating this post as we speak with more trades! If you read this post on Tuesday, I’ve marked new deals with a snazzy —New Trade— logo.

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UPDATE: A co-manager has been selected. Thank you to all who applied.

I’d like to thank all those who applied in response to last Thursday’s talent search for the Screw Cancer ottoneu league. We raised over $300 for charity in the process. Unfortunately, we only had one open spot thus quite a few applicants were left hat in hand. Today, I have a fresh new opportunity to play fantasy baseball and battle cancer.

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UPDATE: Thank you for your applications. The position has been filled. Please be on the lookout for a new opportunity early next week.

Last year, Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer ottoneu league required some help. Five new owners, including me, were needed. Instead of recruiting purely by fantasy chops, we decided to put charity at stake and raised $1,258 from the new entrants. Since its inception in 2012, the league has contributed over $30,000 to cancer related charities. Cameron has forsaken his responsibilities due to a silly little thing like joining the Padres front office. We’ll carry on without him.

Today we’re looking for one new owner. Read on if you’d like to apply. We’re also encouraging general donations.

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Ottoneu arbitration began on October 15 and runs through November 15. This omnibus is a one stop shop for all the strategy and tactics you need to get through the process. The following omnibus is a recreation of the one I published the last three years. We’ve mostly said everything there is to say over the course of more than 10,000 words. But first, some background.

Ottoneu is the award-eligible fantasy platform hosted by FanGraphs. Think of it as dynasty-lite. You get a 40-man roster, a $400 payroll, and way too much freedom to manage your team your way. For reasons unbeknownst to me, the platform is named after former St. Louis Browns player Otto Neu who compiled a whopping zero plate appearances over his “career.”

Over the offseason, the price of every major league player increases by $2. Minor leaguers increase by $1. Then there is an arbitration process that can be done one of two ways. Most leagues use the allocation process which ultimately adds an additional $11 to $33 per team. This omnibus is intended for both forms of arbitration, but the allocation process does open more possibilities for strategery and thus has more words dedicated to it.

As I mentioned, there are two systems of arbitration: voting and allocation. An asterisk indicates that the article is intending for voting leagues. I’ve organized the omnibus into sections: intro, intermediate, and advanced. Read the rest of this entry »

The following is the first in a series of probably two articles about my FanGraphs Staff League team on ottoneu. This was written during the season, prior to the start of the playoffs. Thus it contains no further reference to Nick Pollack’s heartrending defeat of me. That’s the topic of the next one.

Last winter, just before the ottoneu keeper deadline, our dark overlord (shh, don’t say his name) informed us that we would be switching to the new Head-to-Head format. I would say we didn’t have much time to adjust to the new settings, but, well, those settings were still very much in the design phase. At this point, my roster was set up as a back-end contender. With a little luck, I had a shot at first place. Maybe 15 percent? I wasn’t drawing dead, but I also wasn’t the odds on favorite.

The new format was a gift – manna from heaven – an unexpected opportunity to play a little Moneyball to get out ahead of the competition. And, after going 20-1 in the regular season, I’m comfortable saying I Moneyballed the crap out of my opponents.

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