2020 Rookie ETA Projections

A new Ottoneu league has recently formed with a twist – despite the deep, dynasty-like structure of the platform, our league has decided on a single rule change this year: players without MLB experience (“rookies”) are ineligible for the annual spring player auction.  Instead, rookies may only be added to rosters through an in-season free agent player auction once they have accumulated their first MLB PA or IP.  Yes, this means Luis Robert cannot be owned (48 hour auction waiting period) until he completes his first PA, most likely to come on Opening Day (3/26) against the Royals.

This one simple rule change impacts a tremendous amount of Ottoneu strategy, a discussion for which I’ll reserve a future post.  For now, the purpose of this article is to list the rookies that have at least some opportunity to debut in 2020, and estimate which of these prospects might actually have some relevant fantasy impact this season.

The table below lists 130+ prospects that could potentially make their initial MLB rookie debut in 2020.  All players with existing MLB experience (Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May) have been removed.  The three columns to the far right should be the most useful:

“Chance” refers to the likelihood the player makes an MLB appearance in 2020.

“Debut” is the estimated month they could make their MLB appearance in 2020.

“Impact” is the fantasy relevance of their 2020 MLB season experience.

Owners play in a variety of leagues where these rookie ETA estimates may be useful, so feel free to sort the columns as you see fit.  A few examples:

Jarred Kelenic: despite 21 terrific games at AA last year for the 20 year old, I think there’s a relatively low chance he actually gets called up this year by SEA, partly because I believe SEA will try to stockpile all their dry power for 2021.  However, should Kelenic get the call, I think it will be late in the year (September), though it could be meaningful as he’s a possible above average OF contributor immediately (High).

Keibert Ruiz, Tyler Stephenson, and Daulton Varsho: these three catchers profile quite differently, but I expect all to make their debut sometime this summer.  Of the three, I like Varsho and his fantasy profile quite a bit more than the others (Medium impact, with even more upside in leagues that reward speed).

Daulton Jefferies: he might be the sneakiest value on the list, but I love his strong K + command profile, the way OAK maximizes the use of their young players, and the possibility of relevant contribution either in the rotation or in the bullpen.  Zips rightly sees Jefferies as a Top 100 prospect, and he’s a guy I’d keep an eye on despite ranking well outside the top 120+ prospects in the game right now.

All ETA’s and prospect information come directly from the recent FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects.