2020 Rookie ETA Projections
A new Ottoneu league has recently formed with a twist – despite the deep, dynasty-like structure of the platform, our league has decided on a single rule change this year: players without MLB experience (“rookies”) are ineligible for the annual spring player auction. Instead, rookies may only be added to rosters through an in-season free agent player auction once they have accumulated their first MLB PA or IP. Yes, this means Luis Robert cannot be owned (48 hour auction waiting period) until he completes his first PA, most likely to come on Opening Day (3/26) against the Royals.
This one simple rule change impacts a tremendous amount of Ottoneu strategy, a discussion for which I’ll reserve a future post. For now, the purpose of this article is to list the rookies that have at least some opportunity to debut in 2020, and estimate which of these prospects might actually have some relevant fantasy impact this season.
The table below lists 130+ prospects that could potentially make their initial MLB rookie debut in 2020. All players with existing MLB experience (Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May) have been removed. The three columns to the far right should be the most useful:
“Chance” refers to the likelihood the player makes an MLB appearance in 2020.
“Debut” is the estimated month they could make their MLB appearance in 2020.
“Impact” is the fantasy relevance of their 2020 MLB season experience.
Owners play in a variety of leagues where these rookie ETA estimates may be useful, so feel free to sort the columns as you see fit. A few examples:
Jarred Kelenic: despite 21 terrific games at AA last year for the 20 year old, I think there’s a relatively low chance he actually gets called up this year by SEA, partly because I believe SEA will try to stockpile all their dry power for 2021. However, should Kelenic get the call, I think it will be late in the year (September), though it could be meaningful as he’s a possible above average OF contributor immediately (High).
Keibert Ruiz, Tyler Stephenson, and Daulton Varsho: these three catchers profile quite differently, but I expect all to make their debut sometime this summer. Of the three, I like Varsho and his fantasy profile quite a bit more than the others (Medium impact, with even more upside in leagues that reward speed).
Daulton Jefferies: he might be the sneakiest value on the list, but I love his strong K + command profile, the way OAK maximizes the use of their young players, and the possibility of relevant contribution either in the rotation or in the bullpen. Zips rightly sees Jefferies as a Top 100 prospect, and he’s a guy I’d keep an eye on despite ranking well outside the top 120+ prospects in the game right now.
All ETA’s and prospect information come directly from the recent FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects.
| PLAYER | ORG | Age | POS | LEVEL | Top 100 | FV | ETA | 2020 | DEBUT | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wander Franco | TBR | 19.0 | SS | A+ | 1 | 80 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | HIGH |
| MacKenzie Gore | SDP | 21.0 | LHP | AA | 3 | 70 | 2021 | MEDIUM | JUNE | VERY HIGH |
| Jo Adell | LAA | 20.8 | LF | AAA | 4 | 65 | 2021 | LOCK | MAY | VERY HIGH |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | 22.0 | C | A | 5 | 60 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | MEDIUM |
| Luis Robert | CHW | 22.5 | CF | AAA | 7 | 60 | 2020 | LOCK | APRIL | VERY HIGH |
| Nate Pearson | TOR | 23.5 | RHP | AAA | 8 | 60 | 2020 | HIGH | JUNE | VERY HIGH |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | 19.1 | RF | A+ | 9 | 60 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Joey Bart | SFG | 22.9 | C | AA | 10 | 60 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Jarred Kelenic | SEA | 20.6 | CF | AA | 11 | 60 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | HIGH |
| Matt Manning | DET | 22.0 | RHP | AA | 12 | 60 | 2021 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | 20.7 | CF | AA | 13 | 60 | 2022 | MEDIUM | AUG | HIGH |
| Forrest Whitley | HOU | 22.4 | RHP | AA | 15 | 60 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | MEDIUM |
| Casey Mize | DET | 22.8 | RHP | AA | 16 | 60 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Luis Patino | SDP | 20.3 | RHP | AA | 18 | 60 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Cristian Pache | ATL | 21.2 | CF | AAA | 20 | 60 | 2021 | HIGH | JUNE | HIGH |
| CJ Abrams | SDP | 19.4 | CF | A | 22 | 55 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KCR | 19.7 | SS | R | 23 | 55 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Marco Luciano | SFG | 18.1 | SS | A- | 24 | 55 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Spencer Howard | PHI | 23.5 | RHP | AA | 26 | 55 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | MEDIUM |
| Vidal Brujan | TBR | 22.0 | 2B | AA | 27 | 55 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Kristian Robinson | ARI | 19.2 | CF | A | 28 | 55 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | 20.2 | RHP | A | 29 | 55 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 23.0 | 3B | AAA | 30 | 55 | 2020 | HIGH | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | 21.4 | SS | AA | 32 | 55 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | 22.0 | SS | AA | 33 | 55 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Ronny Mauricio | NYM | 18.9 | SS | A | 35 | 55 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | 22.2 | CF | AA | 36 | 55 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | 21.9 | 1B | A+ | 37 | 55 | 2021 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | 19.8 | 3B | A+ | 38 | 55 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | 21.3 | LF | AAA | 39 | 55 | 2020 | HIGH | MAY | VERY HIGH |
| Luis Campusano | SDP | 21.4 | C | A+ | 40 | 55 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Nick Madrigal | CHW | 22.9 | 2B | AAA | 41 | 55 | 2020 | HIGH | JUNE | MEDIUM |
| Deivi Garcia | NYY | 20.7 | RHP | AAA | 42 | 55 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | LOW |
| Drew Waters | ATL | 21.1 | CF | AAA | 43 | 55 | 2021 | MEDIUM | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | 21.7 | RHP | AAA | 44 | 55 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | 22.8 | RHP | AA | 45 | 55 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Jeter Downs | BOS | 21.5 | 2B | AA | 47 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Sixto Sanchez | MIA | 21.5 | RHP | AA | 48 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Jasson Dominguez | NYY | 17.0 | CF | R | 49 | 50 | 2025 | LOW | 2025 | LOW |
| Brennen Davis | CHC | 20.3 | CF | A | 50 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | 22.3 | RF | A+ | 51 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Riley Greene | DET | 19.4 | RF | A | 52 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | 23.2 | LHP | AA | 53 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | 21.8 | 3B | AA | 54 | 50 | 2021 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | 23.0 | RF | AA | 55 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | 23.5 | 3B | AA | 56 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | HIGH |
| Triston Casas | BOS | 20.1 | 1B | A+ | 57 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 22.3 | 1B | AA | 58 | 50 | 2021 | MEDIUM | AUG | MEDIUM |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | 23.6 | C | AA | 59 | 50 | 2021 | HIGH | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Josh Lowe | TBR | 22.0 | CF | AA | 60 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Travis Swaggerty | PIT | 22.5 | CF | A+ | 61 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Jhoan Duran | MIN | 22.1 | RHP | AA | 63 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | MEDIUM |
| Evan White | SEA | 23.8 | 1B | AA | 64 | 50 | 2020 | LOCK | APRIL | MEDIUM |
| Miguel Amaya | CHC | 20.9 | C | A+ | 65 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | 21.8 | RHP | AA | 66 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW |
| Josiah Gray | LAD | 22.1 | RHP | AA | 67 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Heliot Ramos | SFG | 20.2 | RF | AA | 68 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Taylor Trammell | SDP | 22.4 | LF | AA | 69 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | 19.8 | CF | A+ | 70 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Brent Honeywell Jr. | TBR | 24.9 | RHP | AAA | 71 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW |
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | 23.2 | LHP | A+ | 72 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | 23.5 | C | AA | 73 | 50 | 2020 | HIGH | JULY | LOW |
| Jordan Balazovic | MIN | 21.4 | RHP | AA | 74 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Xavier Edwards | TBR | 20.5 | 2B | A+ | 75 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | TOR | 19.4 | RHP | A+ | 76 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | 20.5 | RHP | A+ | 77 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Tahnaj Thomas | PIT | 20.7 | RHP | R | 78 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Jordyn Adams | LAA | 20.3 | CF | A+ | 79 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Jordan Groshans | TOR | 20.3 | 3B | A | 80 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Kevin Alcantara | NYY | 17.6 | CF | R | 81 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Jose Garcia | CIN | 21.9 | SS | A+ | 82 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| George Valera | CLE | 19.3 | CF | A | 84 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Ezequiel Duran | NYY | 20.7 | 2B | A- | 85 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| DL Hall | BAL | 21.4 | LHP | A+ | 86 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Luis Garcia | WSN | 19.7 | 2B | AA | 87 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Keibert Ruiz | LAD | 21.6 | C | AAA | 88 | 50 | 2020 | HIGH | AUG | LOW |
| Orelvis Martinez | TOR | 18.2 | SS | R | 89 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Alexander Vargas | NYY | 18.3 | SS | R | 90 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | 20.3 | SS | A+ | 91 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Nick Lodolo | CIN | 22.0 | LHP | A | 92 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Tyler Freeman | CLE | 20.7 | SS | A+ | 93 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Matthew Liberatore | STL | 20.3 | LHP | A | 94 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | 22.4 | RF | AAA | 96 | 50 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW |
| Yerry Rodriguez | TEX | 22.3 | RHP | A | 97 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Liover Peguero | PIT | 19.1 | SS | A- | 98 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Corbin Carroll | ARI | 19.5 | CF | A- | 99 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Monte Harrison | MIA | 24.5 | CF | AAA | 102 | 50 | 2020 | HIGH | JUNE | LOW |
| Andres Gimenez | NYM | 21.4 | SS | AA | 103 | 50 | 2020 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Brice Turang | MIL | 20.2 | SS | A+ | 104 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Ivan Herrera | STL | 19.7 | C | A+ | 105 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| Mark Vientos | NYM | 20.2 | 3B | A | 106 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 23.0 | LF | AAA | 108 | 50 | 2020 | HIGH | MAY | MEDIUM |
| Kris Bubic | KCR | 22.5 | LHP | A+ | 110 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Ryan Rolison | COL | 22.6 | LHP | A+ | 111 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | 19.1 | SS | A- | 112 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Brailyn Marquez | CHC | 21.0 | LHP | A+ | 114 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | 2021 | LOW |
| Shane Baz | TBR | 20.7 | RHP | A | 116 | 50 | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW |
| Heriberto Hernandez | TEX | 20.2 | RF | A- | 117 | 50 | 2023 | LOW | 2023 | LOW |
| William Contreras | ATL | 22.1 | C | AA | 118 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | 23.2 | 1B | AA | 119 | 50 | 2021 | MEDIUM | SEPT | MEDIUM |
| Isaac Paredes | DET | 21.0 | 3B | AA | 120 | 50 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW |
| George Kirby | SEA | 22.0 | RHP | A- | 45+ | 2022 | LOW | 2022 | LOW | |
| Shogo Akiyama | CIN | 31.8 | CF | JPN | 50 | 2020 | LOCK | APRIL | MEDIUM | |
| Yoshi Tsutsugo | TBR | 28.2 | DH | JPN | 50 | 2020 | LOCK | APRIL | HIGH | |
| Jonathan India | CIN | 23.2 | 3B | AA | 45+ | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Tony Santillan | CIN | 22.8 | RHP | AA | 45+ | 2021 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW | |
| J.B. Bukauskas | ARI | 23.3 | RHP | AA | 45+ | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW | |
| Jackson Kowar | KCR | 23.4 | RHP | AA | 45+ | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Tucker Davidson | ATL | 23.8 | LHP | AAA | 45+ | 2021 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Bryan Mata | BOS | 20.8 | RHP | AA | 45+ | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 22.9 | C | AA | 45+ | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | 22.3 | LHP | AA | 45+ | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Nick Neidert | MIA | 23.2 | RHP | AAA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | LOW | |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | 22.9 | RHP | AAA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| David Peterson | NYM | 24.4 | LHP | AA | 45 | 2020 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Kyle Muller | ATL | 22.3 | LHP | AA | 45 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 24.6 | 3B | AAA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Alex Faedo | DET | 24.3 | RHP | AA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Joey Wentz | DET | 22.4 | LHP | AA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Daz Cameron | DET | 23.1 | CF | AAA | 45 | 2020 | HIGH | SEPT | LOW | |
| Colton Welker | COL | 22.3 | 3B | AA | 45 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Yusniel Diaz | BAL | 23.4 | RF | AA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW | |
| Ryan McKenna | BAL | 23.0 | CF | AA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Wil Crowe | WSN | 25.4 | RHP | AAA | 45 | 2020 | MEDIUM | JULY | LOW | |
| Daulton Jefferies | OAK | 24.5 | RHP | AA | 40 | 2021 | MEDIUM | JULY | MEDIUM | |
| Jorge Guzman | MIA | 24.0 | RHP | AA | 40 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Owen Miller | SD | 23.3 | 2B | AA | 40 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW | |
| Taylor Widener | ARI | 25.3 | RHP | AAA | 40 | 2020 | MEDIUM | AUG | LOW | |
| Pavin Smith | ARI | 24.0 | 1B | AA | 40 | 2021 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | 23.4 | CF | AA | 40 | 2022 | LOW | SEPT | LOW | |
| Beau Burrows | DET | 23.4 | RHP | AAA | 40 | 2020 | MEDIUM | SEPT | LOW | |
| Ryan Castellani | COL | 23.9 | RHP | AAA | 40 | 2020 | HIGH | JULY | LOW | |
| Shun Yamaguchi | TOR | 31.6 | RHP | JPN | 40 | 2020 | LOCK | APRIL | LOW |
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
This. Is amazing. Thank you.
Thanks for the article. What is your reasoning for listing Adell as a May callup?
Probably some aggressive assumptions, but Brian Goodwin is the only thing in his way, and I think LAA realizes they must be all in on 2020. Adell probably shows well this spring and 6-8 weeks is probably enough time to see how he adjusts to AAA 2.0. LAA just doesn’t have a lot of OF depth, either.
Dry powder
I don’t totally understand the rationale for holding down pitching prospects beyond the FA cutoff in April (assuming they are ready). They still need to keep pitching in the minors, so it’s not like you’re saving their innings for later by keeping them down. Say you’re the Padres, you need everything to go right to not finish third in that division, getting everything you can out of Gore is more important than saving him for playoffs that may not happen. They have the guys to go onto the season with a six man rotation (Paddack, Richards, Lamet, Davies, Lucchesi, Gore).
Though, looking at that list, God knows what you have in Richards, Davies will be eaten by the regression monster, and Lamet could easily pitch his way into the bullpen. They are going to need Gore up early one way or another. I say May 1 latest.
The way it seems to be breaking down, which is interesting, is to hold back hitting prospects as long as possible so you eat up as much of their prime years as you can before FA, but to bring up pitchers as soon as they’re ready because you never know when they’re going to break.
“…getting everything you can out of Gore is more important than saving him for playoffs that may not happen…” – In theory I think this is correct, but in practice there aren’t many examples of teams doing this with top pitching prospects, are there? I can think of Strasburg, but who else? Trend seems to be that teams want their best starters for the playoffs, and I’d argue Gore is probably one of their top 2. Gore is talented enough to force this decision early, but I’d be surprised if he’s up really early. I could potentially see a situation where they treat Gore and Patino as one SP, using both to get through the season and into the playoffs, but even that is unorthodox.
Don’t think SD has a real shot at the playoffs even with Gore, however.
Wrong Ruiz is linked in the article under catchers. The link in the chart is right.
What’s the rationale for Pache being high impact?
I thought he’d be good for a few steals and not much else, but I just checked and he stole 8 bases in 19 attempts last year, so I’m not sure we can even count on that.
Scouts are coming around on Pache’s power; trend is up, and he looks like a better hitter than he once did. I could see elite defense plus a little speed plus a little punch to make him an overall above average producer this year.
Maybe I am missing something but Varsho’s ETA is listed as 2021 but his 2020 impact is listed as High.
Correct – the ETA is pulled from The Board, but my expectation is that Varsho is up this summer. If right, I think he has the potential to hit immediately, and his speed will really set him apart in leagues that reward it. If all the stars align, Varsho could be an above average C bat with elite speed at the position that also gets playing time at 2B and OF.