2020 Rookie ETA Projections

A new Ottoneu league has recently formed with a twist – despite the deep, dynasty-like structure of the platform, our league has decided on a single rule change this year: players without MLB experience (“rookies”) are ineligible for the annual spring player auction.  Instead, rookies may only be added to rosters through an in-season free agent player auction once they have accumulated their first MLB PA or IP.  Yes, this means Luis Robert cannot be owned (48 hour auction waiting period) until he completes his first PA, most likely to come on Opening Day (3/26) against the Royals.

This one simple rule change impacts a tremendous amount of Ottoneu strategy, a discussion for which I’ll reserve a future post.  For now, the purpose of this article is to list the rookies that have at least some opportunity to debut in 2020, and estimate which of these prospects might actually have some relevant fantasy impact this season.

The table below lists 130+ prospects that could potentially make their initial MLB rookie debut in 2020.  All players with existing MLB experience (Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May) have been removed.  The three columns to the far right should be the most useful:

“Chance” refers to the likelihood the player makes an MLB appearance in 2020.

“Debut” is the estimated month they could make their MLB appearance in 2020.

“Impact” is the fantasy relevance of their 2020 MLB season experience.

Owners play in a variety of leagues where these rookie ETA estimates may be useful, so feel free to sort the columns as you see fit.  A few examples:

Jarred Kelenic: despite 21 terrific games at AA last year for the 20 year old, I think there’s a relatively low chance he actually gets called up this year by SEA, partly because I believe SEA will try to stockpile all their dry power for 2021.  However, should Kelenic get the call, I think it will be late in the year (September), though it could be meaningful as he’s a possible above average OF contributor immediately (High).

Keibert Ruiz, Tyler Stephenson, and Daulton Varsho: these three catchers profile quite differently, but I expect all to make their debut sometime this summer.  Of the three, I like Varsho and his fantasy profile quite a bit more than the others (Medium impact, with even more upside in leagues that reward speed).

Daulton Jefferies: he might be the sneakiest value on the list, but I love his strong K + command profile, the way OAK maximizes the use of their young players, and the possibility of relevant contribution either in the rotation or in the bullpen.  Zips rightly sees Jefferies as a Top 100 prospect, and he’s a guy I’d keep an eye on despite ranking well outside the top 120+ prospects in the game right now.

All ETA’s and prospect information come directly from the recent FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects.

 

2020 Rookie ETA Projections
PLAYER ORG Age POS LEVEL Top 100 FV ETA 2020 DEBUT IMPACT
Wander Franco TBR 19.0 SS A+ 1 80 2021 LOW SEPT HIGH
MacKenzie Gore SDP 21.0 LHP AA 3 70 2021 MEDIUM JUNE VERY HIGH
Jo Adell LAA 20.8 LF AAA 4 65 2021 LOCK MAY VERY HIGH
Adley Rutschman BAL 22.0 C A 5 60 2021 LOW 2021 MEDIUM
Luis Robert CHW 22.5 CF AAA 7 60 2020 LOCK APRIL VERY HIGH
Nate Pearson TOR 23.5 RHP AAA 8 60 2020 HIGH JUNE VERY HIGH
Julio Rodriguez SEA 19.1 RF A+ 9 60 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Joey Bart SFG 22.9 C AA 10 60 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Jarred Kelenic SEA 20.6 CF AA 11 60 2021 LOW SEPT HIGH
Matt Manning DET 22.0 RHP AA 12 60 2021 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Royce Lewis MIN 20.7 CF AA 13 60 2022 MEDIUM AUG HIGH
Forrest Whitley HOU 22.4 RHP AA 15 60 2020 MEDIUM AUG MEDIUM
Casey Mize DET 22.8 RHP AA 16 60 2020 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Luis Patino SDP 20.3 RHP AA 18 60 2020 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Cristian Pache ATL 21.2 CF AAA 20 60 2021 HIGH JUNE HIGH
CJ Abrams SDP 19.4 CF A 22 55 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR 19.7 SS R 23 55 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Marco Luciano SFG 18.1 SS A- 24 55 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Spencer Howard PHI 23.5 RHP AA 26 55 2020 MEDIUM AUG MEDIUM
Vidal Brujan TBR 22.0 2B AA 27 55 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Kristian Robinson ARI 19.2 CF A 28 55 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Grayson Rodriguez BAL 20.2 RHP A 29 55 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT 23.0 3B AAA 30 55 2020 HIGH JULY MEDIUM
Oneil Cruz PIT 21.4 SS AA 32 55 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Jazz Chisholm MIA 22.0 SS AA 33 55 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Ronny Mauricio NYM 18.9 SS A 35 55 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Brandon Marsh LAA 22.2 CF AA 36 55 2020 MEDIUM JULY MEDIUM
Andrew Vaughn CHW 21.9 1B A+ 37 55 2021 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Nolan Gorman STL 19.8 3B A+ 38 55 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Dylan Carlson STL 21.3 LF AAA 39 55 2020 HIGH MAY VERY HIGH
Luis Campusano SDP 21.4 C A+ 40 55 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Nick Madrigal CHW 22.9 2B AAA 41 55 2020 HIGH JUNE MEDIUM
Deivi Garcia NYY 20.7 RHP AAA 42 55 2020 MEDIUM JULY LOW
Drew Waters ATL 21.1 CF AAA 43 55 2021 MEDIUM JULY MEDIUM
Ian Anderson ATL 21.7 RHP AAA 44 55 2020 MEDIUM JULY MEDIUM
Logan Gilbert SEA 22.8 RHP AA 45 55 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Jeter Downs BOS 21.5 2B AA 47 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Sixto Sanchez MIA 21.5 RHP AA 48 50 2020 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Jasson Dominguez NYY 17.0 CF R 49 50 2025 LOW 2025 LOW
Brennen Davis CHC 20.3 CF A 50 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
JJ Bleday MIA 22.3 RF A+ 51 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Riley Greene DET 19.4 RF A 52 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Tarik Skubal DET 23.2 LHP AA 53 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Nolan Jones CLE 21.8 3B AA 54 50 2021 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Trevor Larnach MIN 23.0 RF AA 55 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Alec Bohm PHI 23.5 3B AA 56 50 2020 MEDIUM JULY HIGH
Triston Casas BOS 20.1 1B A+ 57 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Alex Kirilloff MIN 22.3 1B AA 58 50 2021 MEDIUM AUG MEDIUM
Daulton Varsho ARI 23.6 C AA 59 50 2021 HIGH JULY MEDIUM
Josh Lowe TBR 22.0 CF AA 60 50 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Travis Swaggerty PIT 22.5 CF A+ 61 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Jhoan Duran MIN 22.1 RHP AA 63 50 2020 MEDIUM JULY MEDIUM
Evan White SEA 23.8 1B AA 64 50 2020 LOCK APRIL MEDIUM
Miguel Amaya CHC 20.9 C A+ 65 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Edward Cabrera MIA 21.8 RHP AA 66 50 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Josiah Gray LAD 22.1 RHP AA 67 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Heliot Ramos SFG 20.2 RF AA 68 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Taylor Trammell SDP 22.4 LF AA 69 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Alek Thomas ARI 19.8 CF A+ 70 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Brent Honeywell Jr. TBR 24.9 RHP AAA 71 50 2020 MEDIUM AUG LOW
Daniel Lynch KCR 23.2 LHP A+ 72 50 2022 LOW SEPT LOW
Tyler Stephenson CIN 23.5 C AA 73 50 2020 HIGH JULY LOW
Jordan Balazovic MIN 21.4 RHP AA 74 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Xavier Edwards TBR 20.5 2B A+ 75 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Simeon Woods Richardson TOR 19.4 RHP A+ 76 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Hunter Greene CIN 20.5 RHP A+ 77 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Tahnaj Thomas PIT 20.7 RHP R 78 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Jordyn Adams LAA 20.3 CF A+ 79 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Jordan Groshans TOR 20.3 3B A 80 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Kevin Alcantara NYY 17.6 CF R 81 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Jose Garcia CIN 21.9 SS A+ 82 50 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
George Valera CLE 19.3 CF A 84 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Ezequiel Duran NYY 20.7 2B A- 85 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
DL Hall BAL 21.4 LHP A+ 86 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Luis Garcia WSN 19.7 2B AA 87 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Keibert Ruiz LAD 21.6 C AAA 88 50 2020 HIGH AUG LOW
Orelvis Martinez TOR 18.2 SS R 89 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Alexander Vargas NYY 18.3 SS R 90 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Geraldo Perdomo ARI 20.3 SS A+ 91 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Nick Lodolo CIN 22.0 LHP A 92 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Tyler Freeman CLE 20.7 SS A+ 93 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Matthew Liberatore STL 20.3 LHP A 94 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Jesus Sanchez MIA 22.4 RF AAA 96 50 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Yerry Rodriguez TEX 22.3 RHP A 97 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Liover Peguero PIT 19.1 SS A- 98 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Corbin Carroll ARI 19.5 CF A- 99 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Monte Harrison MIA 24.5 CF AAA 102 50 2020 HIGH JUNE LOW
Andres Gimenez NYM 21.4 SS AA 103 50 2020 LOW SEPT LOW
Brice Turang MIL 20.2 SS A+ 104 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Ivan Herrera STL 19.7 C A+ 105 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
Mark Vientos NYM 20.2 3B A 106 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Ryan Mountcastle BAL 23.0 LF AAA 108 50 2020 HIGH MAY MEDIUM
Kris Bubic KCR 22.5 LHP A+ 110 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Ryan Rolison COL 22.6 LHP A+ 111 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Brayan Rocchio CLE 19.1 SS A- 112 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Brailyn Marquez CHC 21.0 LHP A+ 114 50 2021 LOW 2021 LOW
Shane Baz TBR 20.7 RHP A 116 50 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Heriberto Hernandez TEX 20.2 RF A- 117 50 2023 LOW 2023 LOW
William Contreras ATL 22.1 C AA 118 50 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Lewin Diaz MIA 23.2 1B AA 119 50 2021 MEDIUM SEPT MEDIUM
Isaac Paredes DET 21.0 3B AA 120 50 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
George Kirby SEA 22.0 RHP A- 45+ 2022 LOW 2022 LOW
Shogo Akiyama CIN 31.8 CF JPN 50 2020 LOCK APRIL MEDIUM
Yoshi Tsutsugo TBR 28.2 DH JPN 50 2020 LOCK APRIL HIGH
Jonathan India CIN 23.2 3B AA 45+ 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Tony Santillan CIN 22.8 RHP AA 45+ 2021 MEDIUM AUG LOW
J.B. Bukauskas ARI 23.3 RHP AA 45+ 2020 MEDIUM AUG LOW
Jackson Kowar KCR 23.4 RHP AA 45+ 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Tucker Davidson ATL 23.8 LHP AAA 45+ 2021 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Bryan Mata BOS 20.8 RHP AA 45+ 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Ryan Jeffers MIN 22.9 C AA 45+ 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Trevor Rogers MIA 22.3 LHP AA 45+ 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Nick Neidert MIA 23.2 RHP AAA 45 2020 MEDIUM JULY LOW
Cristian Javier HOU 22.9 RHP AAA 45 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
David Peterson NYM 24.4 LHP AA 45 2020 LOW SEPT LOW
Kyle Muller ATL 22.3 LHP AA 45 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Bobby Dalbec BOS 24.6 3B AAA 45 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Alex Faedo DET 24.3 RHP AA 45 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Joey Wentz DET 22.4 LHP AA 45 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Daz Cameron DET 23.1 CF AAA 45 2020 HIGH SEPT LOW
Colton Welker COL 22.3 3B AA 45 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Yusniel Diaz BAL 23.4 RF AA 45 2020 MEDIUM AUG LOW
Ryan McKenna BAL 23.0 CF AA 45 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Wil Crowe WSN 25.4 RHP AAA 45 2020 MEDIUM JULY LOW
Daulton Jefferies OAK 24.5 RHP AA 40 2021 MEDIUM JULY MEDIUM
Jorge Guzman MIA 24.0 RHP AA 40 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Owen Miller SD 23.3 2B AA 40 2020 MEDIUM AUG LOW
Taylor Widener ARI 25.3 RHP AAA 40 2020 MEDIUM AUG LOW
Pavin Smith ARI 24.0 1B AA 40 2021 LOW SEPT LOW
Jarren Duran BOS 23.4 CF AA 40 2022 LOW SEPT LOW
Beau Burrows DET 23.4 RHP AAA 40 2020 MEDIUM SEPT LOW
Ryan Castellani COL 23.9 RHP AAA 40 2020 HIGH JULY LOW
Shun Yamaguchi TOR 31.6 RHP JPN 40 2020 LOCK APRIL LOW
Estimated 2020 impact of top prospects

We hoped you liked reading 2020 Rookie ETA Projections by Trey Baughn!

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Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com

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lostatlimbo
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lostatlimbo

This. Is amazing. Thank you.