After covering difficult keep/cut decisions at the infield positions the last few weeks, the RotoGraphs Ottoneu team will turn our attention to the outfield this week (and possibly next week too). Here are five guys on my keep/cut bubble.

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Michael Harris II, OF
Salary: $27
Average Salary: $18
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 6.02

Michael Harris’ struggles in his third big league season were all the result of the hamstring injury that cost him two months of the season, right? When you split his season pre-injury and post-injury, things don’t really line up with that narrative. Before he hit the IL, he was posting a rather disappointing .250/.295/.358 slash line, good for an 80 wRC+ with a particularly conspicuous absence of power. After he returned from his injury, he was a lot more productive at the plate, slashing .283/.318/.506 (125 wRC+) but stole just two bases through the end of the season.

Under the hood, everything looked right in line with the norms he had established for himself through the first two seasons of his career. His hard hit rate, barrel rate, xwOBA, and wOBA were all well above league average and his aggressive high contact approach at the plate remained intact. It wasn’t just simple bad luck either, though his BABIP did fall 34 points from 2023; his BABIP was nearly exactly the same before and after his hamstring injury. The only thing I can see is a batted ball mix that was a little out of whack early in the season; his groundball rate was over 53% through mid-June and his pull rate was nearly 10 points higher than what it was the year prior. Both of those metrics came back down towards his norms in August and September and his results on balls in play benefitted.

And then there’s his Steamer projection for 2025. The computer is enamoured with his potential to breakout next year and ZiPS shares in the optimism. Harris will turn 24 under a month before Opening Day and apparently his rebound during the second half of this season was enough to convince the computers that his struggles during the first half were just a mirage.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping Harris at $27 (or I would have if I hadn’t just traded him away in that league for a $43 Corbin Carroll). Still, that feels like a ceiling for him. It assumes the projections are right and that he’s due for a significant improvement in 2025, but it doesn’t leave much room for him to produce much surplus value if that improvement comes to fruition.

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Luis Robert Jr., OF
Salary: $29
Average Salary: $28
2024 P/G: 4.03
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.07

A hip injury sustained in early April sidelined Luis Robert Jr. for two months of the season and he never really recovered once he returned to the field. Between the injury, the constant trade rumors, and the historically bad team surrounding him, it was a miserable year for Robert. His strikeout rate spiked to 33.2% and his power output dipped to just a .155 ISO as he limped to a career-worst 84 wRC+.

There’s certainly some cause for concern when looking at his peripherals. His hard hit rate dipped slightly but his barrel rate fell by more than five points. That tells me that his overall quality of contact was intact but something else in his batted ball mix was leading to a lower power output. Indeed, his pull rate fell nearly 13 points, down to 34%. In the two seasons where his pull rate has been higher than 40%, Robert has posted wRC+s of 155 (43.1% pull rate) and 128 (46.8%); in his other three seasons in the majors with a pull rate under 40%, his wRC+ has been 111 or lower.

And then there’s his plate discipline issues. He’s always been an aggressive swinger, but the amount of damage he was capable of doing on contact helped him offset some of those strikeout issues. Well, he cut his overall swing rate by more than five points but his contact rate continued a two-year downward trend so the result was a lot more called strikes and a nearly five point jump in strikeout rate.

Honestly, between the lackluster season in 2024, the injury issues, and the red flags in both his batted ball and plate discipline peripherals, it’s agonizingly difficult to evaluate Robert. We know that when everything clicks and he’s firing on all cylinders, he can be a phenomenal offensive producer, but the inconsistency will kill you. His 2025 projection isn’t very rosy either.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $29 and I’d cut all the way down to around $15. Unless he’s traded to a much better team environment this offseason, I’m avoiding him wherever I can.

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Spencer Steer, 1B/OF
Salary: $8, $14, $18
Average Salary: $12
2024 P/G: 4.66
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.02

I really loved Spencer Steer for his multi-positional eligibility which is why I rostered him wherever I could. Now that he’s lost 2B and 3B eligibility, I’ve got to figure out how to evaluate him as an OF with a bit of flexibility at 1B. The player pool at his new position isn’t as shallow as it was at 2B or even 3B but it can be tricky to roster five reliable outfielders to fill all five of those lineup spots in Ottoneu. He’s lost a bit of value by simply going from four eligible positions down to two, but not as much as I think you’d expect.

As for his actual on-field production, 2024 was a bit of a weird year for him. Everything in his peripherals looked stable; his batted ball data was solid and his plate discipline even slightly improved. Despite all that, his wOBA fell from .355 to .316 thanks to a 58 point drop in BABIP. There’s nothing amiss with his batted ball data or his plate approach — it really seems like he was just the victim of old fashioned bad luck.

The projections don’t see his BABIP returning to his 2023 levels and nor should they; he isn’t very fast and he elevates too much of his contact to take advantage of a high line drive rate. A BABIP just below league average is a pretty good bet to make and that’s exactly where the computer pegs him.

Keep or cut?

I’m happy to keep him up to $15 or $16 I think. $18 is probably too high, especially without the positional flexibility that made him so valuable the last few years.

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Nolan Jones, OF
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $9
2024 P/G: 3.16
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.97

Are you willing to pay for a breakout that’s now two years removed? That’s the central question surrounding Nolan Jones. His season in 2024 was marred by a recurring back injury and he had plenty of issues reproducing his outstanding season from ‘23 when he was on the field. His hard hit rate actually increased by three and half points but his power production cratered despite all the hard contact. It’s not hard to figure out what happened either; his groundball rate jumped almost 10 points and his pull rate fell by more than 10 points. That’s a seriously bad combination for a power hitter.

Assuming he’s healthy in 2025, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Jones. The projection essentially splits the difference between his breakout season and injury marred season. We can be pretty assured that his .401 BABIP from 2023 won’t happen again but his power gains all looked legitimate. If he can figure out how to start pulling and elevating his contact again, his home ballpark and fantastic contact quality give him a pretty high ceiling. There are a lot of “ifs” that need to go right for his 2025 season to be successful, making the risk pretty high if you opt to keep him.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m fine with keeping at $10 but no higher. That feels like a decent price to pay for the potential that he’s healthy and figures out all his batted ball issues. It’s also cheap enough that he becomes an easy cut if his 2023 breakout turns out to be just a flash in the pan.

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Matt Wallner, OF
Salary: $4 (x2)
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 5.36
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.90

Chad asked me to include Wallner here because I just acquired him in one of our shared leagues in exchange for Jazz Chisholm Jr. I understand the hesitation surrounding him. He’s got an extremely volatile profile full of strikeouts and tons of power. The highs will be excellent — like the 169 wRC+ he posted from July 7 through the end of the season — but the lows will likely be unplayable. To make matters more complicated, he’s likely to be platooned heavily since he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching. Thankfully, he’s on the strong side of the platoon, but a part-time player is a little more difficult to roster.

But let’s look at what he’s capable of. The 169 wRC+ over the final three months of the season was fantastic, but that came with a .410 BABIP and a 34.2% strikeout rate. What he does have going for him is outrageously good contact quality. His hard hit and barrel rates, xwOBA, and max exit velocity all sat in the top 5% in the majors. He may not make much contact, but when he does, ball go far.

Keep or cut?

I don’t want to overhype a player because the red flags in Wallner’s profile are certainly glaring, but he’s got a lot of prime Joey Gallo in him and he was an incredibly valuable player in Ottoneu for a long time. I’m happy to keep at $4 on the chance that Wallner actually does turn into the second coming of Gallo, but even if he settles in as a lesser version of Gallo, that’s still a valuable player in a format that rewards power and patience. The ceiling is a bit trickier to determine but I think I’d keep Wallner up to $6 or $7 and there’s probably a good chance he’ll go for even more at auction.

When I wrote about relief pitcher spend last week, I kept looking at the data I was using – Opening Day rosters and end of season results for all OPL-eligible FanGraphs Points leagues – and thinking about all the other questions I could explore. It took a lot to stay focused on bullpens. But with that behind me, I can now turn my attention to a topic I have wrestled with for years: how to split budget between hitters and pitchers.

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If you have been reading my content or following me on Twitter (or now on Bluesky) over the years, you know my stance on RP. If not, here is the TL;DR of everything I have ever written about relievers in Ottoneu: I don’t like to spend on them. Go cheap on the pen, spend elsewhere. But, to be transparent, that was always more a vibes-based thing than real analysis. Until now.

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As always, I am just following the footsteps of Lucas and Jake, who already covered their tough MI keeper decisions this week. They covered a few guys I also have to make calls on, but we’ll turn our attention to some new names for today.

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Lucas started off this week with a look at tough keep or cut decisions at 2B and SS. Now it’s my turn with four guys on the keep/cut bubble.

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Bo Bichette, SS
Salary: $28, $34
Average Salary: $29
2024 P/G: 3.04
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.31

I’m sure I’m not the only Ottoneu player wondering what the heck to do with Bo Bichette this offseason. His 2024 season was marred by multiple calf injuries and then cut short in the middle of September by a fractured finger. Even when he was on the field, he was horrendous, posting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and xwOBA. It would be easy to chalk up his struggles to those injuries and expect a rebound season for him in 2025, but there were already some yellow flags in his profile before this year.

Bichette’s power output has been steadily declining year-over-year since peaking at a .260 ISO during his rookie year. His 2021 breakout now seems like a distant memory after settling in with a .348 wOBA across the two years afterwards. Despite all his injury issues this year, his hard hit rate stayed relatively stable even if his barrel rate collapsed. That tells me that he had no trouble making solid contact but his batted ball profile was all out of whack. Indeed, when we look at his rate of pulled elevated contact, 2024 represented a career low for him — just 19% of his elevated contact went to his pull side. His 29 home runs in 2021 notwithstanding, Bichette isn’t a traditional slugger but pulling the ball with authority is a surefire way to generate extra-base hits. Without that power, Bichette has produced a lot more empty batting average than you’d like to see, and that type of hitter just isn’t as valuable in Ottoneu than in traditional 5×5 leagues.

Steamer isn’t exactly bought in on a full bounce back either. It’s calling for a .330 wOBA which would have been a career low for him had 2024 not happened. My rankings aren’t sure what to do with him either as they currently show him in the mid-teens at shortstop in a tier with CJ Abrams and Xavier Edwards. That feels too low based on what he’s accomplished in the past but there are just so many question marks about what his product will look like in 2025.

Keep or cut?

I think $34 is too high a price with so much uncertainty surrounding him which makes him an easy cut in that league. $28 feels like it’s right on the cusp of the cut line too, but I think I’m up for gambling at that price. I could probably get him back in the draft somewhere around that price, but I’d rather hold on to him just for the roster clarity.

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Brandon Lowe, 1B/2B
Salary: $13
Average Salary: $10
2024 P/G: 4.97
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.12

Oh look, another guy who feels tricky to evaluate due to injuries. Brandon Lowe’s injury history is much more extensive than Bichette’s, but to Lowe’s credit, he’s performed decently well when on the field. This year, he actually posted his best wRC+ since his monster season in 2021, and he only had one trip to the IL for an oblique strain towards the beginning of the season. Once he returned from that injury, he posted a scorching hot 152 wRC+ over the next three months, from May 20 through August 18. Afterwards, he fell into a bit of a slump and finished the season with an overall wRC+ of 123.

His batted ball peripherals all looked good; his hard hit and barrel rates all fell within his established norms and his power production was the best it’s been since 2021. There were some yellow flags in his plate discipline, however. His walk rate had sat at 11% over the last four years but fell to just 7.8% this year. His strikeout rate fell by about a point, which is good news, but the missing free passes are a lot more concerning. It all stems from an approach that was a lot more aggressive; his overall swing rate was a career high and was largely fueled by a five point jump in his zone swing rate. Swinging at more strikes is better than swinging at pitches outside the zone, but unless it comes with a corresponding jump in contact rate, it’s going to negatively affect his walk rate. That’s exactly what happened. He swung more often, didn’t make any more contact, and wound up walking and striking out less.

Of course, the real question for Lowe is how much he’ll end up playing in 2025. Between the injuries and the Rays careful handling of him against left-handed pitching, he’s accumulated more than 450 plate appearances in exactly one season during his career. On a per-plate-appearance basis, he’s one of the most productive second basemen out there, but rostering him means you’ll need to have a backup plan ready to go for 300 or so plate appearances.

Keep or cut?

His injuries and lack of playing time have depressed Lowe’s value these past few seasons, but he can really hit when he’s healthy. Still, $13 feels like it’s a bit too high to bet on a full season from Lowe. His average salary of $10 seems like a much better ceiling.

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Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF
Salary: $4, $7
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 5.06
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.46

An absolutely ridiculous month of July fueled Tyler Fitzgerald’s surprise breakout this year. Seriously, he hit .321/.390/.849 across 15 games that month and quickly took over the starting shortstop gig for a Giants team that was going nowhere. He continued to hit well through the end of the season and is slated to begin next season as the Giants starting second baseman after they signed Willy Adames.

He was ranked 26th on the Giants preseason prospect list as a 35+ FV prospect so his ascent and subsequent breakout were genuine surprises. Looking at all of his batted ball peripherals explains why no one really believes he’ll be able to replicate his success in 2025. He had below average exit velocity, hard hit rate, whiff rate, and xwOBA and his barrel rate was only slightly above average. His sweet spot rate was very high and his sprint speed was among the highest in baseball which could explain how he sustained such a high BABIP.

Fitzgerald’s entire approach is based on pulling the ball with authority; it’s the same kind of approach that Isaac Paredes uses with such great success. Indeed, look at how correlated Fizgerald’s pull rate is with his wOBA.

When he was crushing pitches to left field in July and August, he was a legitimate threat in San Francisco’s lineup. The issue is that this kind of approach is easily exploitable unless the batter has a good eye and can wait for the right pitch, like Paredes does. Unfortunately for Fitzgerald, he simply has too much swing-and-miss in his profile and isn’t patient enough to make his pull-happy ways work in the big leagues. My guess is that he’ll be a pretty streaky hitter in 2025, with some peaks like we saw this year, but an overall below average hitter.

Keep or cut?

Despite all the red flags laid out above, I’m not necessarily out on Fitzgerald at $4. He’ll add 2B back to his positional eligibility fairly quickly and a MI with his kind of potential for a hot streak is useful at that price. $7 feels like you’re paying for his July and August with the expectation that that hot streak is closer to his true talent and that’s just not going to be the reality.

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Michael Massey, 2B
Salary: $3, $5
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: 3.98
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.51

I’m going to make this quick. Let’s play Chad’s favorite game: how many points did Michael Massey earn in games that he started? 4.64 points per game started! That’s a useful bench MI, and because he’s on the strong side of a platoon, it’s pretty easy to know when to lock him into your lineup or leave him on the bench. What’s funny is that even though the Royals protected him against left-handed pitching, Massey’s platoon split was just 4 points of wOBA.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $3. At $5 things get a little dicey but it sounds like the Royals might be open to using Massey in the outfield now that they’ve acquired Jonathan India. Adding that positional flexibility might make him worth the extra couple of dollars.

The points per game (P/G) mark drops when it hits the middle infield position. In fact, players lined up at second and short hold the lowest P/G replacement level marks among defensive positions. Even Catchers do better. It’s hard to find power-hitting middle infielders and easy to find quick, speedy base-stealing ones. Analyzed below are three who emanate young potential and one who pulsates nostalgia. Each of them bring their own challenges to the keep/cut decision-making process. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, Lucas and Jake covered some tough decisions at CI (and helped me make some tough decisions, as well). Today, it is my turn.

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Salaries can inflate as the season goes on. A player that makes you think pass as the auction price heads above $2 in March may look more like an easy $4 in the middle of July. Ben Rice is that player. But what do you do with him once the season is over? Check RosterResource? Follow the offseason beat? Or, take matters into your own hands and head to the winter meetings to ask the brass some hard-hitting questions? Whatever you choose, you can also incorporate a plethora of statistics to make your decisions more informed. Join me as I grapple with my own keep/cut decisions at the corner-infield position.

Replacement level 1B (24 rostered): 4.55 P/G

Replacement level 3B (24 rostered): 4.36 P/G

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF – SP – RP

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After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

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Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

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Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

Everyone loves a good MVP debate (actually, everyone might hate a good MVP debate, now that I think about it) and fantasy MVPs are particularly fun (or not fun, I guess) to debate because value can be tough to define. Because of the fixed budget in any fantasy league (either a set number of dollars or a set number of draft slots), a player’s acquisition cost has a real impact on their value. This leaves fantasy managers to debate if the most valuable players are the ones who produce the most, the ones who return the most value relative to cost, or something else. Today I want to consider “something else.”

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