This is not a “sleeper” list. Read the rest of this entry »

Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

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Just yesterday, I mentioned I was happy to get Michael Pineda in the 19th round in Lindy’s mock draft. I am not a believer he can quit getting hit around so hard and therefore lower his ERA near his FIP. I do though want the pitcher with a +9 K/9 and a walk rate under 3 BB/9.

Using NFBC average draft position data, Pineda’s is getting picked as the 230th player off the board but he has gone as early as 184th. A spread of 46 picks is about three to four rounds depending on league size. I created a simple spreadsheet to help an owner know the chances a player is still available at each of their picks thereby knowing when to wait on a player or immediately pick them up.

Merging an owner’s personal projections and the current ADP is probably one of the most important processes in a preparing for a draft. It takes some time (which I understand not everyone has) but it can give an owner a nice leg up on competition. These owners understand when they can get 5th round values in the 12th round.

In past articles, I demonstrated how to go through each round and use ADP to see which players may or may not be available. I would sort of gamble on when a player may go using the earliest and average pick. By setting up a spreadsheet to calculate the normal distribution using the draft pick data from NFBC.

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I have been playing in dynasty and keeper leagues as long as I have been playing fantasy baseball. There is something satisfying about being able to attempt to build long term contending teams and scour the wire for future talent. I also find that they stay the most active from the beginning to end of a season and in the off season. For a fantasy junkie like me, that is a fix I often need. However, there is a dark side to leagues like this…

*Cues the gloomy music* Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite parts about coming out to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League and Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum is getting to do my first draft of the year. I’ve already done mocks, but this is my first draft that actually gets played out. It’s a 50-round NFBC Draft & Hold league. For those unfamiliar with the format, it’s just as the name says, you draft and hold these 50 guys for the entire season. There are no waiver periods at any point. We always do the first 23 rounds out here and then complete the final 27 online starting in January. The D&H format alone is really cool, but the added wrinkle of a split draft makes this one of my most unique drafts every season.

I posted the results from last year’s iteration of this draft – well the first 23 rounds, at least. As amazing* as my first 23 went, I only finished 9th out of 15. I just didn’t uncover too many gems in those other 27 rounds to cover my misses in the first 23. Nomar Mazara, Sean Manaea, and Vince Velasquez were my only substantial hits from the second half of that draft. Perhaps unsurprisingly, pitching carried my team. I had a 28.5/45.5 hit/pitch point split. The pitching was 6th-best, but only three teams had worse hitting than mine. But enough of that team. Time for a new one!

*sarcasm… obviously

Initially, I didn’t think I was going to be able to participate this year. The drafts were scheduled for Friday night, but Mother Nature had other plans for me. We normally go to a game and have a welcome reception on Thursday night of this event, but it was rained out. Yes, it was rained out in Arizona. To fill the time, they decided to host a draft Thursday night which allowed yours truly to play after all! Today, we’ll take a look at my first five rounds. I’ll do another piece covering the rest of my 23 as well as identify where some intriguing players went throughout the draft.

The NFBC does something called Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft slotting so when they pick the names out of the hat, you then get to pick what slot you want out of the ones left. I’ve been doing this draft here since 2012 and never picked early. My highest pick has been 8th and I’ve regularly picked 14th or 15th. This year I was hoping to have my name pulled early so I could get a high pick.

And it actually happened!!

I was third or fourth of the hat and wound up with the second pick. Interestingly, my first two picks this year are the same two I got at pick 15 a year ago. Let’s take a look:

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If you’ve been reading any of my writing this winter or listening to the podcast, then you’ve heard me reference a draft I started back in November (click link for pics of first 23 rounds) during a trip to Arizona for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forums. It’s one of the NFBC Draft Champions 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. We did the first 23 rounds live and we start the final 27 today.

I picked 15th out of 15 in this draft and part of that was for today. I knew that 15th pick gets the first pick of the second part and the time in between often pushes some strong options up the rankings who otherwise would’ve been gone if we started from round 1 today. By the way, NFBC does the Kentucky Derby Style draft slotting where you pick your spot from what’s available. So I was 5th or 6th I think to make my selection and once 1, 2, and 3 were gone, I decided to jump back to 15 to be on the elbow with added benefit of the first pick in the winter session.

I’m interested in who y’all think I should take. Mind you, I’m not polling and then automatically taking the top choice, especially if it’s not a runaway vote. I just find this split-draft really interesting and I’d like to cash in my advantage so I figure talking it out with y’all will help.

I’m on the clock as of noon central with an 8-hour timer. I’m certainly not looking to take very much of that time at all since I’ve been sitting on this pick for quite some time. So after about 1 pm central, comments on who I should take will be moot as the selection will have been made, but then you can just make fun of me for picking incorrectly.

Before we get to who is available, let’s take a gander at my team (who says “take a gander”?):

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If you don’t have an issue with position scarcity adjustments, then I already furnished 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings with Steamer Projections and highlighted sleepers last week.

Naturally, position scarcity remains an argument, but there is one solid way around the argument: find the best value (projections relative to average draft position) within the scarcer positions and prebuild a roster with options heading into the draft; then you can focus on best available value and not position scarcity. I will explain and provide options below.

Below, is an embedded file of updated (1.5.2016) NESN NFBC Average Draft Position and Rotochamp Composite projections (Rotochamp & Steamer). This time, I did not adjust the rankings for position scarcity. Everyone is ranked simply by their relative value (hitters to all other hitters and pitchers to all other pitchers). That value is then compared to ADP. I also included the sorting capability so that you can manipulate the file:

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Episode 294

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back for one more 2015 episode! Yeah, I thought the last episode would be their last of 2015, but y’all got lucky! Today they’re talking the Chapman trade, some mid-tier signings (Murphy, Leake, etc…) and their early thoughts on the NFBC ADP data released over the weekend.

Who stands out to you based on their early draft position?

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I discovered a Christmas treat over the weekend: NFBC average draft position data is now up for 2016 drafts! I don’t know exactly how many drafts have taken place just yet, but it’s still nice to get an early look at things and see what’s going on. I’ve got some thoughts for every position:

CATCHER:

• Buster Posey is far and away the top catcher for 2015. The 89-pick gap between Posey and Jonathan Lucroy is more than double the next-biggest at any position – which happens to be 42 picks between Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki.
• I like Lucroy for a rebound, but I’m not chasing him so if I don’t take Posey then I’m waiting a bit on catcher. It’s not an endless trove, but Blake Swihart, Yasmani Grandal, Derek Norris, Nick Hundley, Miguel Montero, Wilson Ramos, and Welington Castillo are all going after pick 200.
• Don’t wait too long, though, dollar catchers are the worst investments in dollar days. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler tells us that dollar backstops return negative value on average.
• Edit: I just realized Kyle Schwarber is listed under OF despite qualifying at C (21 games played) so his 33 ADP makes for just a 13-pick gap between the first and second catcher. 

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