Who Should I Pick?!
If you’ve been reading any of my writing this winter or listening to the podcast, then you’ve heard me reference a draft I started back in November (click link for pics of first 23 rounds) during a trip to Arizona for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forums. It’s one of the NFBC Draft Champions 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. We did the first 23 rounds live and we start the final 27 today.
I picked 15th out of 15 in this draft and part of that was for today. I knew that 15th pick gets the first pick of the second part and the time in between often pushes some strong options up the rankings who otherwise would’ve been gone if we started from round 1 today. By the way, NFBC does the Kentucky Derby Style draft slotting where you pick your spot from what’s available. So I was 5th or 6th I think to make my selection and once 1, 2, and 3 were gone, I decided to jump back to 15 to be on the elbow with added benefit of the first pick in the winter session.
I’m interested in who y’all think I should take. Mind you, I’m not polling and then automatically taking the top choice, especially if it’s not a runaway vote. I just find this split-draft really interesting and I’d like to cash in my advantage so I figure talking it out with y’all will help.
I’m on the clock as of noon central with an 8-hour timer. I’m certainly not looking to take very much of that time at all since I’ve been sitting on this pick for quite some time. So after about 1 pm central, comments on who I should take will be moot as the selection will have been made, but then you can just make fun of me for picking incorrectly.
Before we get to who is available, let’s take a gander at my team (who says “take a gander”?):
| POS | PLAYER | ROUND | NOTE |
| C | Yasmani Grandal | 13 | Catchers always go fast in this league; I had to get at least one |
| C | |||
| 1B | Joey Votto | 1 | Everyone knows my Votto love, but it’s not OBP & I should’ve taken Correa |
| 3B | Mike Moustakas | 7 | Came around on him in ’15 |
| CI | Yangervis Solarte | 22 | Has 3B/1B elig.; could add 2B in-season (10 gm qualifier) |
| 2B | Ian Kinsler | 10 | Scored 94 on a last-place DET team & they aren’t finishing last again |
| SS | Eugenio Suarez | 18 | I waited too long at SS, which will be addressed in choices for my next pick |
| MI | Joe Panik | 16 | Great approach (elite K%; good BB%) |
| OF1 | Mookie Betts | 2 | Does everything well; has skills to contend for top fantasy hitter |
| OF2 | J.D. Martinez | 4 | Hardest-hitting OF since ’14 |
| OF3 | David Peralta | 12 | Obliterates righties enough to mitigate lefty ineffectiveness |
| OF4 | Randal Grichuk | 13 | Another guy who smokes the ball regularly |
| OF5 | Aaron Hicks | 19 | Took him before trade to NYY; love it even more now |
| UT | Enrique Hernandez | 23 | Good in 350 MLB PA since ’14 (123 wRC+); has OF/2B elig-could add SS again in ’16 |
| P1 | Stephen Strasburg | 3 | The skills are not – and never have been – in question; need some health |
| P2 | Marcus Stroman | 8 | IP could be light since he only got 55 last year, but it wasn’t an arm inj. |
| P3 | Justin Verlander | 9 | I believe the re-birth; needs to maintain the high fastball |
| P4 | Raisel Iglesias | 11 | Prob. could’ve waited another round at the time, but now this is where he goes |
| P5 | Lance McCullers | 15 | His ADP is now 100 picks higher so I’m thrilled with this price |
| P6 | Patrick Corbin | 17 | This one’s only 50 picks better than his ADP, but I’m still pleased |
| P7 | Andrew Cashner | 20 | The early market is about done with him, but I think it’s premature |
| P8 | Kenley Jansen | 6 | Can make a case for both closers as #1 overall, espec. if Chapman is susp. |
| P9 | Wade Davis | 5 | “No way he’ll maintain that 1.00 ERA from ’14!” -me last year… I was RIGHT!!! (0.94) |
| R1 | Hunter Strickland | 21 | Might take a month-plus, but I think he wrests the role from Casilla |
The Candidates
So right off the bat, I’ve got a starting spot open with the C2. I mentioned above catchers go quickly in this league. It happens every year and yet I’ve been slow to adjust and too often get stuck at catcher. Grandal was my lone solid catcher last year, too. I ended with Tyler Flowers as my C2.
Eight of the 15 teams have two catchers, one even has three (Welington Castillo, Devin Mesoraco, and Cameron Rupp). Rupp was actually my C2 target in round-20 or later, but he went in the middle of round 18 so I just decided to wait and only James McCann and A.J. Pierzynski went after that.
Here are the top catchers on my board:
- John Ryan Murphy (MIN)
- Jason Castro (HOU)
- Dioner Navarro (CWS)
- Caleb Joseph (BAL)
- Robinson Chirinos (TEX)
- Hank Conger (TB)
Soooo yeeeaaahhhh. I could also go back to Flowers!
I hinted in Suarez note that maybe shortstop is the way to go. If I had just taken Correa instead of Votto, I wouldn’t be in this position and I’d have Correa & Betts en route to a wire-to-wire win. Alas, that’s merely fiction at this point. At least the Todd Frazier trade improved the Suarez pick because he’s now slotted in at third instead of having to battle Zack Cozart for SS reps.
Here are the top shortstops on my board:
- Ketel Marte (SEA)
- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
- Chris Owings (ARI)
- Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA)
- Andrelton Simmons (LAA)
Marte jumps out from this list and perhaps from the entire pool of available guys. He’s going 11th among shortstops with an ADP of 228. For reference, this will be pick 346 that I’m making to start round 24. I don’t have a great read on Marte, but he impressed in a small 247-PA sample last year. But how legit is that 10% BB rate?
With 10 career HR in 1896 minor league PA (and just a .370 SLG), there’s no reason to pitch him too carefully, so I’m thinking that walk rate has to drop in 2016. He does have three straight 20+ SB seasons, though, and then 31 in 131 games during his first two seasons in Seattle’s system. I’ve only got one SS-eligible player right now, too. Hernandez had 16 games there last year and you only need 10 in-season to qualify for NFBC so maybe he could earn it.
Espinosa is a starter with Yunel Escobar being dealt. Owings was a colossal disappointment last year, but maybe the shoulder that cost him nearly half of 2014 was still an issue that he played through. He still swiped 16 bags in 20 tries despite the wretched season (52 wRC+). He’s shown enough pop in the minors that a double-double isn’t out of the question for him. Adeiny and Andrelton are more glove than bat, but that glove will keep them on the field and playing time is very valuable in a league like this where we will only have these 50 drafted players all year.
Best of the rest position players:
- Byung-ho Park (MIN) – 1B
- Nori Aoki (SEA) – OF
- Brandon Moss (STL) – 1B/OF
- Chris Carter (MIL) – 1B
- Yunel Escobar (LAA) – 3B
I’m pretty set on closers with two super-studs, but here are the penciled-in closers who are out there:
- Steve Cishek (SEA)
- David Hernandez (PHI)
- Brandon Maurer (SD)
- Corey Knebel (MIL)
- Jumbo Diaz (CIN)
- Jason Motte (COL)
I’m not too excited about Cishek so even if I needed a closer, I might still pass these guys for a couple rounds.
There are obviously tons of starting pitchers available, but the only one I’m really considering here is:
- Kenta Maeda (LAD)
I like how my starting rotation played out after seeing it marinate for a couple months. I certainly need plenty more pitching given some of my high-risk assets, but I don’t think it’s a huge need right away in round 24. But Maeda is out there. I’m just not sure on him.
Fill my open spot in the starting lineup? Address a thin position up the middle? Take the highest ADP available (Park)? Or none of those options?!
Please vote for who you think I should take and definitely feel free to leave your comments on the team so far. You can also comment if you prefer someone who isn’t listed, but I think these are the guys I’m really considering… so now that I’m thinking about it maybe don’t comment on someone you’d prefer over these candidates because I’m not going to take him.
UPDATE:
I took Byung-ho Park. Thank you so much to all of you who voted and commented. I really appreciate the talk-through. I think Marte and Maeda will definitely go before I pick again, but several of the other guys listed should make it back in round 25. I’ll probably write an update of this draft after another 5 or so rounds if that’d be at all interesting to y’all.
I highly recommend A Simmons at SS as your next choice. High contact rate, speed upside which was limited in Atl and a solid 2H w underlying skills growth. Not spectacular, but with his D you’re guaranteed the AB
Is Espinosa really going to start or is Trea Turner ready? Inquiring minds (and owner of Turner in a dynasty league) want to know.
Before I vote, need to know the scoring in this league. Is it traditional 5×5 or something else? I ask because you referenced Marte’s BB% which would have more impact in an OBP or points league.
BTW Hope you’re correct about Strickland because I’ve kept him using the same rationale.
It is traditional 5×5. I do worry that Baker will favor Espy over Turner. Baker tends to favor vets over rooks (probably why Revere was brought in over giving Taylor the job in CF).
There is a lot of risk in your pitching staff. I voted for Maeda, but that only adds to your uncertainty. If I were you I would look for a more stable, or known, SP option. You are betting on a lot of guys that need luck. Take a step back and read through your notes for your staff.
If you go position player, you have a bunch of stable guys, take a gamble on high upside with Park. You already made a mess of SS but the position overall is pathetic so it’s a good place to have a mess. It is up to you to think about if one of your C’s will be there on the way back and what the defference between them really is.
You have a nice base for pitching and in these NFBC drafts I’ve had success really pounding my SP depth after round 25. You’re almost there, but it’s between Marte and a catcher for me. After that, you can really load up on pitchers, throw in some prospects for the “lottery” type selections and round out your boring offensive depth after that. Just finishing my 2nd D/C now.
And for what it’s worth, I think taking Votto over Correa was definitely the right move.
I’d take Ketel Marte. It would give you added flexibility and safety. Eugenio Suarez will be 3B availability before long and it is no certainty that Moose can repeat.
Is being a lefty keeping Will Smith from the closer role?
Randal Grichuk in the 13th round seems like the steal of your draft.
I’d take your catcher of choice (I’d pick Navarro over Murphy), so I voted for Murphy
Failing that, I’d take a really long look at Moss. Look at where he’s been drafted the past few years and ask what really has changed about to him to cause this drop? (Playing time will be fine)
Third would be Ketel Marte. Espinosa stands to lose some playing time to all the new guys, but maybe he runs with Baker (but that’s also a reason he might turn to Turner earlier)
In the 24th Rd. Im taking the most upside and that’s Park. I think he’d quickly supplant Solarte @ CI or Hernandez at UT.
Definitely boom or bust, but I’d take Chris Carter
Park is projecting to have some awesome power, and your bats leave something to be desired. Suarez was quite good last year.
uhhh… solarte as your CI is not good. he’s competing with 1B players in that spot and with votto and moose already starting at 1B/3B, you’re way behind in HRs. at this point you have to take the risk on power, which means park or even chris carter.
I’m OK with Solarte in a league like this because he plays a ton and all over the field so he becomes an even better asset in-season as I’m moving guys around. That said, I think your point was well-stated re my Corner power so this comment helped push me down the Park path. Thanks. Btw it’s on you if this fails!!! 🙂
Position versatility is huge in this format so I definitely see his appeal, though it was much higher when he was MI eligible too. I’m finishing up my first DC of the year and I’ve been trying to target a few guys with versatility like Solarte to fill in for the inevitable injuries myself.
Don’t sleep on Solarte this year.
This HQ Forecaster comment box has some intriguing data points regarding this climb in skill.
I’m two Draft Champs in and have landed him both times for next to nothing.
If he gets close to his HQ upside play of 25HR .280BA I’ll be more than thrilled
Take Park. Let’s be honest, all the other bats are replacement level and you can probably find similar options on the waiver wire during the course of the season. At this stage in a draft I’m always looking for upside regardless of position. Take the gamble on Park here, your offense needs help and you’re not risking anything to do it. Marte, Espinosa, Cishek give me about as much wood as Rosie O’Donnell in a thong.
pistol, I did it! I took Park!!
You know Marte… You don’t know Maeda. At this point in the draft, Maeda can yield the most benefits. What if Maeda is Iwakuma? Boom!
I voted Park but would consider Carter over him as others have mentioned.
Your team needs steals but even so, I’d hope to get some with the next picks or deal later…and go with likely power/run production over Marte.
Thanks for all of the great comments so far. Except now I’m super-conflicted, LOL.
As you know, I have the 5th pick in this draft and am very pleased to see that you aren’t considering the guys I’m looking at. Of course, maybe I should reconsider! I do think that a catcher or SS makes sense for you. Good luck!
Thanks, Dick! I didn’t mind exposing a handful of considerations under the assumption that those who I don’t take are unlikely to be there in round 25 (except the Cs… those could drop since it’s not a special group).
Maeda and Park are the reason you chose this draft position. Of those two, Park is your best shot at improving a weak CI position.
Marte could be good, but not likely an upgrade over suarez and panik.
It may take awhile for the NL to adjust to Maeda…he has an out pitch with close to a fastball trajectory that breaks
straight down…then he’ll surprise the hitter with a sneaky-fast heater up in the zone…should generate a lot of groundballs as he keeps the ball around the knees…moves to a big ballpark…fits well in a rotation dominated by lefties.
If I’m reading this right, and it’s a draft and hold league meaning no in season pick ups that leans me heavily towards Andrelton Simmons. Not exciting, but could have a little bounce back and even if he bats lower in the order in the AL it’s not as much as a death sentence as the NL.
You are reading right. We have our 50 guys all year and that’s it. I think there’s a chance Andrelton makes it all the way back to me in rd 25. I actually still believe there is more in his bat, but he needs to show some improvements this year.
Agreed. No reason he can’t go 10/10 this year, but he could also go 5/5 or 5/15. Either way, At-Bats in a format like this is the name of the game when it comes to back-end or depth pieces.
I’d rather have Owings, Espinosa or Hechavarria than Simmons, despite the playing time risk for the first two. By that I mean wait on SS and take another upside play if available…then grab Owings etc later than Simmons would go.
ewv, Owings actually went right after my Park pick. I thought he miiiiight make it back because there isn’t much heat behind him in the market, but I’m friends with the guy who took him and he’s sharp so I shouldn’t be that surprised.
This is neither here nor there, but drafts/leagues like this seem crazy to me. My favorite part of any league is the draft. That enthusiasm would be diminished significantly if Yunel Escobar, Steve Cishek, or Danny Espinosa were my first “pick”.
(I understand this is more akin to a regular MLB team where you don’t completely rebuild your roster every year, etc., and to each their own. I don’t at all intend to diminish your league, I’m sure it’s still a blast and takes quite a bit of skill and acumen to do well. Just saying I love drafting and pondering/evaluating different draft strategies but actually look forward to getting some ‘name’ players, studs, n’ superstars in the draft. Helps to get over a wretched team or a lost season the year before, which seems much harder to do when you keep 46 players apiece.)
First pick of the 24th round. We did the first 23 rounds live in Arizona like any other draft. This is the continuation of that draft.
Very injury prone pitching staff. You’ll need some more sneaky arms to counter for them and the unproven guys like McCullers and Raisel IMO.