Early NFBC ADP Thoughts

I discovered a Christmas treat over the weekend: NFBC average draft position data is now up for 2016 drafts! I don’t know exactly how many drafts have taken place just yet, but it’s still nice to get an early look at things and see what’s going on. I’ve got some thoughts for every position:

CATCHER:

  • Buster Posey is far and away the top catcher for 2015. The 89-pick gap between Posey and Jonathan Lucroy is more than double the next-biggest at any position – which happens to be 42 picks between Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki.
  • I like Lucroy for a rebound, but I’m not chasing him so if I don’t take Posey then I’m waiting a bit on catcher. It’s not an endless trove, but Blake Swihart, Yasmani Grandal, Derek Norris, Nick Hundley, Miguel Montero, Wilson Ramos, and Welington Castillo are all going after pick 200.
  • Don’t wait too long, though, dollar catchers are the worst investments in dollar days. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler tells us that dollar backstops return negative value on average.
  • Edit: I just realized Kyle Schwarber is listed under OF despite qualifying at C (21 games played) so his 33 ADP makes for just a 13-pick gap between the first and second catcher. 

FIRST BASE:

SECOND BASE:

SHORTSTOP:

  • If you’re not prepared to take Carlos Correa in the first half of the first round, then don’t bother buying that shirsey because he won’t be on your team. The early drafters are paying up for the Rookie of the Year and dreaming of what could be when the kid who popped 22 HR in 99 games gets a full season of work.
  • There’s a youth movement at shortstop that bodes well for the future of the position. In addition to Correa (21 years old), the position has Francisco Lindor (22), Corey Seager (22), and Xander Bogaerts (23) all in the top 5. I wouldn’t object to taking all four ahead of Troy Tulowitzki.
  • Marcus Semien (25) had a solid start (.770 OPS thru May) and big finish (.830 Aug-Sept.), but just a .527 in June and July which held down his season numbers. Keep an eye on him, he doesn’t need major improvements to be a strong play at short.
  • You’ve also got Ketel Marte (22) and Trea Turner (23) who could be strong speed assets at the position, too.

THIRD BASE:

  • Wow, four top-10 third baseman. A position can turn quickly as we see with the hot corner. It was light coming into last year, but now offers the richest frontend of any position with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado all going in the top 10 on average and none of them falling lower than 17.
  • I don’t agree with Bryant ahead of Machado. In fact, I prefer Frazier in the four-spot, but I get it. Bryant had an amazing debut despite a 31% K rate so if he cuts into that, the sky is the limit.
  • If you get a pick of 10 or later, you likely won’t get a crack at any of the superstuds, but you can then wait a bit. Evan Longoria is no longer a sexy pick, but he now has three straight seasons of 670+ PA and getting him as the 11th 3B off the board is pretty solid. He still has 30-HR potential, especially if his HR/FB rate creeps back to his 15% career mark after two years at 11%. (He would’ve had 29 last year with a 15% clip based on his 194 flyballs).

OUTFIELD:

STARTING PITCHER:

RELIEF PITCHER:

  • According to ESPN’s Player Rater, 18 relievers ranked in the top-100 by season’s end. You have to remove Carrasco and Marco Estrada because they are actually starters, but you still have 16 relievers in the top-100. Only 10 are being drafted in the top-100 of early drafts meaning you don’t have to get in early on relief pitching (three others have gone as high as a top-100 pick, but their average pick falls just outside) for a chance to land a stud.
  • I am in favor of securing at least one ace-reliever early, though, and sometimes I’ll do the back-to-back as I did with Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen at picks 75 and 76 of my early-November draft in Arizona.
  • My favorite potential studs outside of the top-12 (I’ll group David Robertson and Cody Allen with those top-100 guys because they’re so close at 104 and 105) include: A.J. Ramos (14th RP/131st overall), Roberto Osuna (15/133), Brad Boxberger (21/173), Glen Perkins (24/192) and both Sean Doolittle (23/190) and Arodys Vizcaino (25/193) if they can stay healthy – a challenge for Doolittle in 2015 and Vizcaino throughout his career.

What are some of your early takeaways from the NFBC ADP data? Leave ‘em in the comments. Also, who is your favorite SP outside of the top-50?





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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THOR
8 years ago

Interesting that Sano is so much lower than Schwarber, even though Schwarber doesn’t appear to qualify at C. Schwarber as an OF is significantly less appealing, at least to me.

THOR
8 years ago
Reply to  THOR

Or, now seeing your edit, Schwarber does qualify at C after all…

Werthlessmember
8 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Addison Russell typo, too. You included Addison Reed in the 2B list.