Early NFBC ADP Thoughts
I discovered a Christmas treat over the weekend: NFBC average draft position data is now up for 2016 drafts! I don’t know exactly how many drafts have taken place just yet, but it’s still nice to get an early look at things and see what’s going on. I’ve got some thoughts for every position:
- Buster Posey is far and away the top catcher for 2015. The 89-pick gap between Posey and Jonathan Lucroy is more than double the next-biggest at any position – which happens to be 42 picks between Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki.
- I like Lucroy for a rebound, but I’m not chasing him so if I don’t take Posey then I’m waiting a bit on catcher. It’s not an endless trove, but Blake Swihart, Yasmani Grandal, Derek Norris, Nick Hundley, Miguel Montero, Wilson Ramos, and Welington Castillo are all going after pick 200.
- Don’t wait too long, though, dollar catchers are the worst investments in dollar days. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler tells us that dollar backstops return negative value on average.
- Edit: I just realized Kyle Schwarber is listed under OF despite qualifying at C (21 games played) so his 33 ADP makes for just a 13-pick gap between the first and second catcher.
- First base is stacked at the top per usual with seven guys hold a Min Pick in the top 25. It has the most top-100 picks on the infield with 11 (third base was second with 8). You’ll see Prince Fielder under the first basemen, but he’s a DH-only player in most leagues.
- I feel like you really want one of the top 9 in Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Eric Hosmer.
- Even if you jump on 1B early, chances are you’ll be revisiting it for your corner infielder or utility player. There are later options for some upside like Justin Bour, Greg Bird, and Travis Shaw or useful-but-unspectacular vets like Adam Lind, Mitch Moreland, and Mike Napoli.
- After the two speedsters leading the position (Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon), there’s a big jump down to the next tier of established veterans who feel more like high-floor than high-ceiling: Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, and Ian Kinsler with Anthony Rendon mixed in (who I still see with tons of upside and now at an affordable price).
- After that it splits into two distinct groups: reliable vets (Daniel Murphy, DJ LeMahieu, Dustin Pedroia, Logan Forsythe, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Neil Walker, and Howie Kendrick) and young gambles (Rougned Odor, Kolten Wong, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Joe Panik, Jonathan Schoop, and Devon Travis).
- Starlin Castro kind of straddles both groups. He’s only 26 years old, but he has six full seasons under his belt. Two of his last three seasons have been duds so he’s not that reliable, but he does have some upside, especially going into Yankee Stadium.
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- If you’re not prepared to take Carlos Correa in the first half of the first round, then don’t bother buying that shirsey because he won’t be on your team. The early drafters are paying up for the Rookie of the Year and dreaming of what could be when the kid who popped 22 HR in 99 games gets a full season of work.
- There’s a youth movement at shortstop that bodes well for the future of the position. In addition to Correa (21 years old), the position has Francisco Lindor (22), Corey Seager (22), and Xander Bogaerts (23) all in the top 5. I wouldn’t object to taking all four ahead of Troy Tulowitzki.
- Marcus Semien (25) had a solid start (.770 OPS thru May) and big finish (.830 Aug-Sept.), but just a .527 in June and July which held down his season numbers. Keep an eye on him, he doesn’t need major improvements to be a strong play at short.
- You’ve also got Ketel Marte (22) and Trea Turner (23) who could be strong speed assets at the position, too.
- Wow, four top-10 third baseman. A position can turn quickly as we see with the hot corner. It was light coming into last year, but now offers the richest frontend of any position with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado all going in the top 10 on average and none of them falling lower than 17.
- I don’t agree with Bryant ahead of Machado. In fact, I prefer Frazier in the four-spot, but I get it. Bryant had an amazing debut despite a 31% K rate so if he cuts into that, the sky is the limit.
- If you get a pick of 10 or later, you likely won’t get a crack at any of the superstuds, but you can then wait a bit. Evan Longoria is no longer a sexy pick, but he now has three straight seasons of 670+ PA and getting him as the 11th 3B off the board is pretty solid. He still has 30-HR potential, especially if his HR/FB rate creeps back to his 15% career mark after two years at 11%. (He would’ve had 29 last year with a 15% clip based on his 194 flyballs).
- Of course Mike Trout and Bryce Harper lead the position and will be taken with the top 3 of virtually all drafts.
- After those two, it’s essentially five-category types (Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Mookie Betts, etc…) or pure power (Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, etc…) assets throughout the rest of the top 20.
- OF always feels deep because of how many superstars play there, but once we start looking at 15 teams needing five plus others taken for different positions/utility spots, it’s not that deep.
- Or maybe it just gains depth in-season. After all, we weren’t talking about Michael Conforto, Delino DeShields Jr., Billy Burns, Ender Inciarte, or Stephen Piscotty last winter and they’re all top-50 OF now.
- Guys like Trayce Thompson, Aaron Judge, Derek Dietrich, Josh Bell, and Nick Williams could be the off-the-radar guys ready to make a big impact in 2016.
- OK, now this position is actually deep. The last two AL Cy Young winners (Corey Kluber and Dallas Keuchel in case you forgot) are going 13th and 14th, just behind Stephen Strasburg and just ahead Noah Syndergaard. Any of them could lead your staff.
- Oh and even if you miss out on all of them, you can get Chris Archer, Felix Hernandez, or Carlos Carrasco at 16, 17, and 18.
- Hell, you could realistically go with offense in the first seven rounds and then commit to a double-up of SPs in rounds 8 and 9 (12-team league) and wind up with two of Jon Lester, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Danny Salazar, Michael Wacha, Tyson Ross, Johnny Cueto, Marcus Stroman, and Garrett Richards. It’s all about getting two, though, because you’ll be going up against some teams that have two of those top-18 guys and many others with at least one of them so don’t half-ass it.
- Like last year, there is a big glob of talent after the top-30 or so. Lance McCullers Jr. is going 34th and while I like him a good bit, I feel like I’d rather wait on Carlos Rodon (39th), Raisel Iglesias (45th), Taijuan Walker (47th), or Joe Ross (56th) because they all have pretty similar upsides and risk so don’t pay for the top of that youthful tier.
- Jose Quintana gets no love at 50 even after three straight 200+ IP seasons of mid-3.00s ERA. He’s still just 27 years old, too.
- We tend to focus on the top-50 or top-75 SPs, but there will be tons of guys outside of the top-80 who end up being big contributors. Some of the guys outside the top-80 that I like include young guys on the rise, injury returns, post-hype youngish guys such as: Daniel Norris (83), Vincent Velasquez (89), Kyle Gibson (96), Jesse Hahn (101), Zack Wheeler (109), Drew Hutchison (yes, still… 110), Rubby de la Rosa (117), and Adam Conley (120) to name a few.
- According to ESPN’s Player Rater, 18 relievers ranked in the top-100 by season’s end. You have to remove Carrasco and Marco Estrada because they are actually starters, but you still have 16 relievers in the top-100. Only 10 are being drafted in the top-100 of early drafts meaning you don’t have to get in early on relief pitching (three others have gone as high as a top-100 pick, but their average pick falls just outside) for a chance to land a stud.
- I am in favor of securing at least one ace-reliever early, though, and sometimes I’ll do the back-to-back as I did with Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen at picks 75 and 76 of my early-November draft in Arizona.
- My favorite potential studs outside of the top-12 (I’ll group David Robertson and Cody Allen with those top-100 guys because they’re so close at 104 and 105) include: A.J. Ramos (14th RP/131st overall), Roberto Osuna (15/133), Brad Boxberger (21/173), Glen Perkins (24/192) and both Sean Doolittle (23/190) and Arodys Vizcaino (25/193) if they can stay healthy – a challenge for Doolittle in 2015 and Vizcaino throughout his career.
What are some of your early takeaways from the NFBC ADP data? Leave ‘em in the comments. Also, who is your favorite SP outside of the top-50?
Interesting that Sano is so much lower than Schwarber, even though Schwarber doesn’t appear to qualify at C. Schwarber as an OF is significantly less appealing, at least to me.
Or, now seeing your edit, Schwarber does qualify at C after all…
We were probably typing at the same time, but I added a Schwarber bit to catchers. He qualifies there with 21 games. Meanwhile, Sano is DH/UT only despite being listed under 3B so I’m skeptical of his ADP.
Addison Russell typo, too. You included Addison Reed in the 2B list.
Whoops!! Good looking out. Kind of a hilarious typo when you consider how far apart in value those two are!
Awesome write up Paul! I discovered the NFBC ADP data last night as well, which is great as my first draft champion starts on New Years day.
Picking from the 9 spot, I’m HOPING Arenado falls to me. If not, I’m going with Encarnacion and hopefully nabbing Starling Marte in the 2nd. If Arenado is available at 9, there’s still a good chance E5 will fall to me in the second according to this ADP data.
From there, I think you have to consider going pitcher/pitcher in the 3rd/4th in a 15 team league – at least a draft and hold league. According to ADP data one of, Bumgarner, Kluber, Keuchel, Degrom will be available in the 3rd round. To be able to double down in the 4th with an Archer, Felix or Lester gives you a great pitching base to build from and helps offset injury risk in a draft and hold.
From there it seems boring guys like Adam Jones, Kyle Seager, Agon, Freeman are all falling. In the 5th – yes please.
6th round seems like a good place to gamble on upside – Gregory Polanco or Khris Davis are my options.
I like to land some definite saves in Draft and Hold and the 7th round ADP’s of Cody Allen, Mark Melancon and Trevor Rosenthal line up nicely.
After that, back to hitting, with Yelich and Duda looking like prime targets depending on team needs.
I feel I’ll then circle back for my 2nd closer (and last definite closer before throwing plenty of darts late) with Krod, Rondon & possibly even Betances available. There’s also a great selection of upside SP’s available around here – McCullers, Severino and Iglesias are my favorites.
Next is catcher 1 – Realmuto, d’arnaud or Gomes should be available and perhaps Martin or McCann fall, but I doubt it. For second catcher (around pick 200) Castillo, Norris and Montero are all great plays and at a great price.
Short stop I am waiting until 200-215 with guys like Semien, Miller, Marte and Asdrubal all available.
Right after that I found an interesting pocket of SP’s in Alex Wood, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel.
A corner infield tier emerges after that with Solarte (really like him this year), Castellanos and Plouffe.
Land Nate Karns after that and we’re heading into Round 20+ with a great foundation.
I too am curious how many drafts make up this data at this point
I’ve been following the NFBC message boards a bit and saw that ADPs were first posted Dec. 18, after the completion of just 5 drafts. It looks like they’ve started at least 16 DC drafts, but I don’t think the ADPs are updated until each draft is actually complete, so I’m not sure how many have actually been incorporated into the ADP data. Since these are 50-round slow drafts, they can take 2 or 3 weeks to complete.
Looking at the Avg Pick stats, I’m going to assume the data is incorporating 9 completed drafts so far. All Avg Pick values are xx.00, .11, .22, .33…
So you’re winging it, basically?
Just read on Baseball HQ over a dozen per Greg @ NFBC
Kang seems underdrafted. And he’s only listed at 3B. He’s injured and there’d be some concern about whether he makes it back by May 1 but seems he should be higher.
I’d gladly take Russell 80 spots after Lindor and Seager. As for the SP after 50, I do like Corbin personally.
This upcoming Spring, my 12-team fantasy baseball league will have its first draft since switching to keepers. Draft pick trading is on and I was planning on punting this year by trading most of my middle round picks for very high draft picks. I was thinking about trading for 3 first round picks in a range where I could get Bryce Harper/Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Carlos Correa as well as a late second round pick to target Jose Fernandez with. In our league we will keep five players every year so obviously they’d make up 4 of my 5 keepers for the foreseeable future. I welcome any thoughts about this strategy.
What kind of assets do you have to be able to get that many 1’s? Depending on where they fall in the first round, a single 1 will cost you a 2+3, or 2+4 at the least. For the other, maybe your 3, 5, and 6?
I guess my point is, if you have the assets to acquire 3 1’s, you should be competing this year.
It’s the inaugural draft for the first year of our keepers league so every team has the same amount of assets (one pick per round). Pick trading during the draft is not allowed so we can only trade draft picks before the draft. Because of this, I’m targeting the #5 and #10 overall picks for correa and Bryant. I already have the #2 overall pick that I plan on using for either Harper or trout and I’ll use my second rounder on Fernandez. Every single other pick I’m open to trading for the #5 and #10 picks.
There’s a good chance that Correa goes with pick 4, in my opinion, in your initial keeper draft. I’m not saying that your strategy to acquire as many 1st round picks is bad, but you should have a plan for that. Kershaw with number 5 instead??
You may also consider trading your top pick for next year. It’s equivalent to a round 6 pick, but some other owners may not realize that and overvalue it.
While Correa will likely go #4 in many leagues, in past drafts, my leaguemates have followed the ESPN ratings which currently have Correa ranked 8th. If Correa does go #4, I’d be fine with kershaw or Stanton. I’m much more concerned with Bryant’s availability at #10 because a die-hard Cubs fan holds the 8th overall pick and has shown no intention of moving it. If Bryant does go at #8, I’d be fine with machado.
How do you plan to keep all of those first round picks after this season? Won’t you need 3 first round draft picks next year too?
Trayce Thompson seems a real longshot for any PT — LAD has depth in the OF. How would he compare to: Brito, Reed and Altherr?
Remind me again what the rosters are for NFBC. I thought I read it somewhere (probably right in front of me in the article above) but I can’t find it now. Is this a two catcher format? Thanks – and sorry if the answer is right in front of me.
I got Pedroia in a DC currently ongoing with pick 239 in round 16. Well after adp, fwiw.
Obviously the early results aren’t promising but is there any chance Correa falls outside the top 10 by spring? I can keep him but I lose his draft slot based on NFBC ADP. That wouldn’t be such a big deal if I didn’t have the #2 overall pick in the draft. My hope was that some combination of Trout, Harper, Goldy, Kershaw, Donaldson, Arenado, Machado, Altuve, Bryant, Stanton, Rizzo or Miggy would be ahead of him.
Nothing for 2B eligible Matt carpenter?
The NFBC ADPs are based on 15 teams. Your comments are based on a 12 team draft using a 15 team ADP!!! ???????????? DO OVER!!
Where is Kenta Maeda going?