Can you believe it’s already November? I always lament the end of the season, but the gold lining is my annual trip to the Arizona Fall League for BaseballHQ’s First Pitch Forum event. This was my 10th year attending, and I absolutely love it.

Not only do we get to watch live baseball from some of the best prospects in baseball, but there’s also nonstop fantasy baseball talk as well as the beginning of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. We run the first 23 rounds live in Arizona and then pick it up in January online for the final 27. Let’s take a closer look at the team I put together on Friday night.

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The date is March 19, 2018. You are about to compete in a live NFBC fantasy baseball auction. You are prepping vigorously for your draft auction. You are reading over your player lists, mulling over which OFs you will go for at the auction table.

Fast forward to September 27, 2018. Now that the season is almost all in the books, you can now look back at your fantasy auction and see all the good, the great, the bad and the terrible decisions you had made just 6 months prior.

Let’s start with a simple OF decision. Which player should you have bought back in March?

Mike Trout (OF, LAA)

OR

Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN)

Sounds like a fairly easy decision, no?  But to help you out, before you answer the question … I’ll provide you with some 2018 statistics (as of 9/26):

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I think there are not one, but many, questions because there are not one, but many, ways Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are similar.

Here’s one answer to one possible question:

who has the best fantasy season in 2019?

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) August 29, 2018

I can’t say I’m surprised, but I’m kind of surprised. I asked this question very deliberately, its design not remotely accidental, the response options dripping with subtext. Mondesi, with his elite speed, decent power for a speedster, and very questionable contact skills, in 2018 is almost a dead ringer for Buxton in 2017. Mondesi doesn’t quite have Buxton’s baggage — he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations of a No. 1 prospect — but he has his own, continuing a familial legacy. But they do have a lot in common, as aforementioned, which can be summarily boiled down to this great quip from our Eric Longenhagen: “wholly untamed physical abilities.”

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Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.

I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.

I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.

Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.

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Finally. I have combed through all the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids, linked them to past CBS ownership rates, and I’m able to provide some interesting facts on the FAAB bidding process. Besides the overall FAAB breakdown, I have this week’s estimated FAAB bids.

I’d like to again thank NFBC’s Greg Ambrosius for providing the information on some missing weeks. There is no way this project could have moved forward without his help.

1. Overall Spending Rate

With the complete dataset, the ideal versus actual spending rates can be calculated.

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3/22/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Alex Cobb to BAL (25:42)
• Steven Souza Jr. hurt shoulder (36:42)
• Ronald Acuna sent down (41:41)

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The NFBC Main Event is different. In case you’re unfamiliar, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is a series of 32 individual 15-team leagues that also functions as its own super league of 480 teams. It’s a no-trading format, too, so balance isn’t just a strategy, it’s a must. It’d be great to win your individual league, but you’re playing to win the Main. It’s also loaded with some of the best fantasy players in the entire game. There’s something about a $125,000 dollar prize that brings out the best of the best!

This is my second year in the Main, but my first time doing a live draft. It paired perfectly with my trip to NYC for Tout Wars (more on that team on the podcast) making for a brilliant double-draft weekend. Tout Wars on Saturday and the Main Event on Sunday with my co-manager and friend, Dusty Wagner.

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The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

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Yes, I know that “sleepers” don’t exist in fantasy baseball as they used to with the Information Age uncovering every potential gem so that no one is truly hidden, but it’s still a term we use to connote an undervalued asset. For this exercise, I’m putting together a lineup with someone at every infield position and three outfielders going after pick 200 in the NFBC average draft position. ADP is coming from our projections page, by the way.

LINEUP

C: Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers, Pick 228 – Grandal is penciled in as the primary starter and yet he’s going a good bit later than his backup, Austin Barnes. I’m a big Barnes fan, but he’s now dealing with an elbow issue and sits on the short end of the platoon. Grandal is a batting average liability, but he’s clubbed 49 homers over the last two seasons and at this cost, there’s a chance he’s your second catcher.

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In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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