It’s been a month since I last checked in on the hottest pickups in CBS leagues. So let’s take another gander. Below are the players whose ownership rates have increased most in the past week on CBS. Are owners justified in rushing to the free agent pool to add these players?
Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the underperformers versus the overperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
Purposes of this post:
Last year, when FanGraphs obtained Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) batted ball data, I was, in a word, jazzed. Kind of like the Statcast revolution now (but not nearly as popular or flashy), FanGraphs in conjunction with BIS bestowed upon the sabermetric community more great tools to describe and predict player performance. I developed an equation to estimate a hitter’s expected batting average on balls in play, or xBABIP. This was not an original idea — other iterations of xBABIP already existed — and I freely admitted then (and now) that my equation was not necessarily superior to any other. My equation simply offered new value by (1) using the new batted ball data and (2) incorporating metrics from a single, easy-to-locate source to make easier the calculation of the equation.
Unfortunately, the equation has long been overdue for a makeover — right from the very start, basically. See, in my attempt to create a relatively simple equation, I overlooked a critical element of the data that has produced imperfect xBABIP estimates. In an attempt to make this a learning experience for anyone who cares, let’s take a look at batted ball data by season at the league level.
Yesterday, I calculated every qualified hitters’ xBABIP and compared it to each of their BABIP marks to determine which hitters have most underperformed. Today will bring a look at the opposite side of the coin — those hitters whose BABIP marks most exceed their xBABIP marks. These aren’t necessarily sell high candidates, but you figure their batting averages should decline, perhaps significantly, the rest of the way.
It’s the All Star Break already! My, has time gone by quickly. So let’s check in on xBABIP, Alex Chamberlain’s version, and begin by identifying those hitters who might enjoy a batting average surge over the second half. I have included all the components of the equation in the table so we could discuss what’s driving the xBABIP.
It’s time for an updated list of potential HR/FB rate decliners! As usual, I scanned the batted ball distance leaderboard, matched each hitter with his HR/FB rate, and identified those hitters whose distance suggests major HR/FB rate downside. Yesterday, I looked at the potential surgers.
As a reminder, please be aware that the other two components of my xHR/FB rate equation are missing from this analysis. So to avoid giving wrong advice, I have stayed away from discussing the hitters in the middle of the distance ranking. Also remember that this ignores park effects, which certainly plays a role.
Early last season, I introduced an equation that calculates a hitter’s expected isolated power, or xISO. Since I haven’t discussed it all so far this season, and we’re halfway through June, I figured now is better than never.
Before I proceed: Andrew Dominijanni expanded on my research about a month ago. He incorporated exit velocity, sourced from the new Statcast data hosted at Baseball Savant. The model better explains the variance in the data and has slightly better predictive (year-to-year) qualities, making it the optimal choice.
Andrew’s version of xISO generates a pretty simple calculation, but I’m feeling especially lazy today, and I can find hard-hit rate (Hard%), pull rate (Pull%) and fly ball rate (FB%) all on FanGraphs’ batted ball leaderboards.
Last week, I discussed a multitude of players who have hit a shocking number of home runs so far this season. So today let’s check in on those on the opposite end of the spectrum, the players that beg the question…what the heck happened to your home run power?!?!?!
Yesterday, I discussed five players whose early season home run totals have like totally shocked the world. Clearly, I missed a couple of obvious names and some of you commented reminding me of such. So let’s get to the rest of those shocking hitters sitting on home run totals we never expected at this point in the season.
• Felix Hernandez got some bad news. He will not be back for four to six weeks.
The team initially hoped that Hernandez, who is 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 10 starts, would miss only two starts after being placed on the disabled list June 1. But Hernandez told ESPN’s Marly Rivera on Saturday that while the second MRI showed improvement, the Mariners’ medical director, Dr. Edward Khalfayan, wants him to rest the calf for four to six weeks.
“I have already been [on] the DL about 12 days, so those days are included [in the 4-6 weeks],” Hernandez said, adding that he expects to be throwing again before the team returns from its next road trip on June 24.
This update sucks for Hernandez owners.
