More Shocking Home Run Totals

Yesterday, I discussed five players whose early season home run totals have like totally shocked the world. Clearly, I missed a couple of obvious names and some of you commented reminding me of such. So let’s get to the rest of those shocking hitters sitting on home run totals we never expected at this point in the season.

Robinson Cano | 18 long balls

Last year through 281 plate appearances, Cano had socked a puny two home runs. Over the rest of the season, he knocked 19 over the wall, hitting one just about every 20 at-bats. He’s already just three away from his entire 2015 season total and on pace to shatter his career high home run mark of 33 set in 2012. The first method to his madness is that his fly ball rate is at a career high. He has never been a big fly ball guy, but he had sat below 30% for the past three years. Second, and more obvious, is his HR/FB rate has jumped to above 20% for just the second time, though it’s still short of his high set in 2012. The thing is, his batted ball distance is almost identical to last year and barely above his career average. If he can sustain the career best fly ball rate, that’s definitely going to help him reach the 30 homer mark for just the second time, but that HR/FB rate is going to decline, potentially back into the mid-teens.

Mookie Betts | 14 taters

Woah, since when was Betts and elite power hitter?? Wait, has Mike Trout inhabited Betts’ body?! Betts has more home runs and more steals than Trout. He’s just four shy of his 2015 home run total, which was a level I thought he would stabilize at for a while. Betts’ strikeout rate is just a tick worse than last year and he’s actually hitting fewer fly balls. So the entirety of his home run surge has come from a spike in HR/FB rate. In fact, that mark has just about doubled. Sure enough, his batted ball distance has jumped about 15 feet, validating most of the power increase. I’m not sure he can maintain that distance, but if he does, his HR/FB rate is a bit more sustainable at this batted ball distance level than Cano’s is. That said, I’d still expect a bit of regression. I don’t think he’s going to reach 30 homers.

Neil Walker | 13 bombs

Not surprisingly, Walker has slowed down a bit, as he has yet to go deep in June, spanning 10 straight games. He now sits just three homers short of his total from last year and just once in his career has he exceeded 20 home runs. It appears that he may be selling out for power as both his strikeout rate and SwStk% are at career highs, while his fly ball rate has surged into the mid-40% range, up from the mid-to-high 30% range the last three seasons. But his batted ball distance is identical to last year! Which is just weird. However, his pull rate on his fly balls has jumped above 30% for the first time, so that’s definitely part of the explanation. It’s clear he has changed his approach, but who knows how long it will last. Given his pedestrian batted ball distance, I wouldn’t count on a high teens HR/FB rate lasting, even given the additional pulled fly balls.

Eugenio Suarez | 13 big flies

Suarez’s 2015 homers – 13
Suarez’s 2016 homers – 13

And this year’s has come in 147 fewer at-bats. He’s striking out even more than last year and hitting about the same rate of fly balls. So, that can only mean one thing — more of his fly balls are leaving the yard! And indeed that’s been the case, as a hefty 22% of his fly balls have hopped over the fence. He actually sits back-to-back with Cano on the batted ball distance leaderboard, but it’s simply not an impressive enough figure to expect Suarez to maintain such a lofty HR/FB rate. It’s worth noting that he’s boosted his distance by 17 feet and the home park certainly helps (where he owns a 25% HR/FB rate this year), but his away mark is still an inflated 17.9%. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to expect some regression going forward, but I think he could continue with a mid-teen HR/FB rate.

Leonys Martin | 10 dingers

Perhaps the biggest surprise on today’s list? Martin has literally doubled his home run output from last year in 131 fewer at-bats. He hit only eight home runs in his first full season in 2013, seven in 2014, and then five in essentially half a season last year. He looks to be taking the Neil Walker path, as his strikeout rate has risen thanks to an increased SwStk%, while he’s hitting far more fly balls. But still, his homers are up because of that HR/FB rate, a mark that has nearly tripled from last year. His batted ball distance is up 12 feet, which is a positive, but at nearly 288 feet, ranking 115th on the leaderboard, it doesn’t come close to justifying a 20% HR/FB rate. Then again, his pulled fly ball rate has surged, a la Walker, which could push that HR/FB rate higher than his distance alone would suggest. Let’s say he’ll continue with a low-to-mid teen HR/FB rate over the rest of the season. It’s still well above what we expected from his power.