Shockingly Low Home Run Totals
Last week, I discussed a multitude of players who have hit a shocking number of home runs so far this season. So today let’s check in on those on the opposite end of the spectrum, the players that beg the question…what the heck happened to your home run power?!?!?!
Hanley Ramirez | 5 long balls
Welp, if you had heeded the advice inferred from my February article that highlighted five hitters with major HR/FB rate downside, then you would not have drafted Hanley! Sadly, I don’t always take my own advice, but that’s also because everyone does have a price. So you have been forgiven if Hanley still found his way onto your team. Unfortunately, his decline has been even more dramatic than even I expected! He’s striking out a bit more than usual, but it all comes down to a HR/FB rate than has been more than cut in half.
There is good news, however. And it’s actually quite good. His batted ball distance actually ranks 49th in baseball at a sterling 298 feet, and his highest mark since 2013! The problem is he’s going the opposite way on his fly balls far more often than ever before and his fly ball pull rate is at the second lowest mark of his career. This could be a conscious change in approach, which would likely keep his HR/FB rate low, or just an early season fluke. The strong distance confirms the power remains, it’s just a matter of hitting his balls in a direction more beneficial to his power.
Prince Fielder | 5 taters
Fielder’s slow start is costing him at-bats thanks to the return of a finally healthy Jurickson Profar, who’s reminding us why he was once considered an elite prospect. Not only is he hitting just .200, driven by a career low and wildly suppressed .221 BABIP, but his HR/FB rate is at the lowest mark of his career and just the second time it’s been in the single digits. Unlike Ramirez discussed earlier, Fielder isn’t actually hitting the ball far, but not clearing the fence. His distance is actually a pathetic 264 feet, ranking just 220th, and representing a decline of a whopping 15 feet from last year, which itself was a decline of eight feet from the previous year. So this decline for Fielder is really just a continuation of what occurred last season. He’s 32, which is the wrong side of 30, but not necessarily an age we might expect a hitter to fall of a cliff offensively. Given his body, perhaps that’s what’s happening. I wouldn’t buy low here.
Adrian Gonzalez | 6 bombs
Gonzalez has been so consistent, it’s hard to believe he’s stuck on just six home runs two and a half months into the season. His issues are interesting, though, as his HR/FB rate is fairly normal and backed by a strong batted ball distance. The problems are two-fold — he’s striking out more than ever before and his fly ball rate has plummeted. The strikeout rate is perplexing because his SwStk% is actually at its lowest mark since 2012 and below his career average. His plate discipline metrics look normal to me, which suggests the strikeout rate should improve. The fly ball rate, which used to sit in the mid-to-high 30% range, has tumbled all the way down to 24.3%, which is now the level you expect from a power hitter. He’s never been below 32.1% previously, so this is a significant drop. I’m not sure what has led to the switch from flies to grounders, but we have enough batted balls at this point to take the change seriously. He’ll probably improve a bit, but he’s not going to get back to a 25-homer pace the rest of the way.
Justin Upton | 6 dingers
Upton is still just 28 years old, which surprises even more, so you don’t expect a hitter who should be in the middle of his prime to see his power disappear. Strikeouts have been a big problem, as his current rate would be a career high, and the first time it has jumped above 30%. The good news is that his walk and strikeout rates are back to normal so far in June. Not a real big sample size, of course, but he has improved those rates in each month, which is a good sign. His June HR/FB rate has also rebounded into normal range, so basically Upton has been Upton, finally, in June. He’s still hitting lots of fly balls and his batted ball distance is nearly identical to last year when he posted a 15.2% HR/FB rate, nearly double his current mark, but about what he posted in June. I would buy here.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Any hope for Puig? His ISO has been trending down every year while his FB% has been trending up, which you would think would bode well for more power as long as he is hitting the ball hard enough. He’s also posted an insane 29% IFFB% so far this year. Dave Roberts implied that there was a mechanical issue with his swing that they identified so maybe there is a change he can/has made.
Not completely related, it was really odd to see Puig attempt 3 steals in his brief rehab assignment. Even more odd to see he was caught twice. You’d think catchers/pitchers in high-A would be easier to run on.
I think “mess” would be a good way to describe Puig. I would imagine that he has too much inherent talent not to figure it out at some point. But he’s also become very injury prone, so he’s a tough guy to count on.
Hey Mike: good stuff, as usual. I noticed when the Red Sox were playing the Orioles (and when the Sox were playing the other teams) that Hanley Ramirez was hitting fly balls the opposite way. Seems to me it’s not a conscious thing, but that he’s just a little late with his swing. If he gets his timing back and starts pulling the ball more, that HR total should go up—as you say.
Question about Trayce Thompson: after reading last week’s “The Change” column by your colleague Eno Sarris, I decided to offer Travis Shaw and Lorenzo Cain in a 16 team keeper pts. league (very small deduction for Ks at .3) for Thompson. After some haggling, I also gave up a 3rd round pick (a 5 coming back) in next year’s draft; the previous owner refused to give him up for anything less. I got some flak for the trade, but I was looking to the future (and the consolation bracket where the winner gets the #1 pick in next year’s draft) since I had lost Duda and JDM to injuries and had traded G.Polanco away in an earlier trade.
Like Sarris, I’m a believer in Thompson’s potential to finish the season reasonably well and I don’t think he’ll be platooned when Puig gets back from injury. I like the ZiPs projection for ROS, but I’m obviously biased.
His fly ball distance rate is a very healthy 304 ft., putting him between Trout and Miggy. And he’s hitting the ball hard. Another attractive number: over the last 30 days, his BB rate is only slightly lower than his K rate
But as I was preparing to make the trade I dug a little deeper into his stats. Weird is the only word I can think of when I look at the difference between his home and away numbers, particularly vs. RHPs. Overall vs. RHPs his wRC+ is a nice 137. But at home, his wRC+ is very high at 214; away it’s a pitiful 68. It makes me wonder: what player am I really getting? Is this just a young player who has trouble feeling comfortable on the road, a statistical anomaly that will regress both positively (road) and negatively (home), or both?
Do you have any thoughts on those peculiarly radical splits? Thanks for the columns.
Small sample size and probably meaningless. When you start slicing and dicing and looking at splits on splits, it just doesn’t have any predictive value.
Thanks. That’s what I was expecting you to say. Looking at his overall numbers, it appears as though he’ll stay in the lineup because he can hit RHPs. And that had been my primary concern about the trade.
“I’m not sure what has led to the switch from flies to grounders…”
I think Gonzo is hurt. His Hard% declined in the final two months of last year as his neck/back woes came to light. He missed a little time. He had it again this spring and there were comments on it early in the season as well. Hard% has never rebounded to previous career levels.
Yup, that’s always the worry. We can never be sure if a player is playing hurt and through and injury or just off to a slow start. It’s unfortunate we fantasy players are the last to know!