Shockingly Low Home Run Totals

Last week, I discussed a multitude of players who have hit a shocking number of home runs so far this season. So today let’s check in on those on the opposite end of the spectrum, the players that beg the question…what the heck happened to your home run power?!?!?!

Hanley Ramirez | 5 long balls

Welp, if you had heeded the advice inferred from my February article that highlighted five hitters with major HR/FB rate downside, then you would not have drafted Hanley! Sadly, I don’t always take my own advice, but that’s also because everyone does have a price. So you have been forgiven if Hanley still found his way onto your team. Unfortunately, his decline has been even more dramatic than even I expected! He’s striking out a bit more than usual, but it all comes down to a HR/FB rate than has been more than cut in half.

There is good news, however. And it’s actually quite good. His batted ball distance actually ranks 49th in baseball at a sterling 298 feet, and his highest mark since 2013! The problem is he’s going the opposite way on his fly balls far more often than ever before and his fly ball pull rate is at the second lowest mark of his career. This could be a conscious change in approach, which would likely keep his HR/FB rate low, or just an early season fluke. The strong distance confirms the power remains, it’s just a matter of hitting his balls in a direction more beneficial to his power.

Prince Fielder | 5 taters

Fielder’s slow start is costing him at-bats thanks to the return of a finally healthy Jurickson Profar, who’s reminding us why he was once considered an elite prospect. Not only is he hitting just .200, driven by a career low and wildly suppressed .221 BABIP, but his HR/FB rate is at the lowest mark of his career and just the second time it’s been in the single digits. Unlike Ramirez discussed earlier, Fielder isn’t actually hitting the ball far, but not clearing the fence. His distance is actually a pathetic 264 feet, ranking just 220th, and representing a decline of a whopping 15 feet from last year, which itself was a decline of eight feet from the previous year. So this decline for Fielder is really just a continuation of what occurred last season. He’s 32, which is the wrong side of 30, but not necessarily an age we might expect a hitter to fall of a cliff offensively. Given his body, perhaps that’s what’s happening. I wouldn’t buy low here.

Adrian Gonzalez | 6 bombs

Gonzalez has been so consistent, it’s hard to believe he’s stuck on just six home runs two and a half months into the season. His issues are interesting, though, as his HR/FB rate is fairly normal and backed by a strong batted ball distance. The problems are two-fold — he’s striking out more than ever before and his fly ball rate has plummeted. The strikeout rate is perplexing because his SwStk% is actually at its lowest mark since 2012 and below his career average. His plate discipline metrics look normal to me, which suggests the strikeout rate should improve. The fly ball rate, which used to sit in the mid-to-high 30% range, has tumbled all the way down to 24.3%, which is now the level you expect from a power hitter. He’s never been below 32.1% previously, so this is a significant drop. I’m not sure what has led to the switch from flies to grounders, but we have enough batted balls at this point to take the change seriously. He’ll probably improve a bit, but he’s not going to get back to a 25-homer pace the rest of the way.

Justin Upton | 6 dingers

Upton is still just 28 years old, which surprises even more, so you don’t expect a hitter who should be in the middle of his prime to see his power disappear. Strikeouts have been a big problem, as his current rate would be a career high, and the first time it has jumped above 30%. The good news is that his walk and strikeout rates are back to normal so far in June. Not a real big sample size, of course, but he has improved those rates in each month, which is a good sign. His June HR/FB rate has also rebounded into normal range, so basically Upton has been Upton, finally, in June. He’s still hitting lots of fly balls and his batted ball distance is nearly identical to last year when he posted a 15.2% HR/FB rate, nearly double his current mark, but about what he posted in June. I would buy here.