As we all know, power is once again down across the league. This season has seen the lowest home runs per game total and ISO since 1993, the lowest SLG since 1992 and is tied with 1995 for the fewest doubles per game. Let’s take a look at the top five decliners in ISO to determine if there is any hope for a rebound in 2012. Given the lower level of offense, I am not suggesting a full rebound, but a context-relative one.
Michael Morse is having his best season ever with 21 home runs and a 0.319 average. The 29 year old has filled in the void left at 1B when Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox this off season. I will look to see if his 2011 season can be duplicated in 2012.
Morse’s has hit as many home runs this season, 21, than in his previous 6 seasons. In his career, he has a 15.3% FR/FB ratio. This season it has increased a bit to 18.4%. In 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 300ft. In 2011 it has increased to 307ft.
Besides more fly balls becoming a home run, his OF FB% is up from 29.3% to 31.8%. Not much of a jump, but it is a jump. Morse’s home run increase seems sustainable into next season.
Batting average is the other stat that is making Michael valuable. His 0.319 AVG is 17 points higher then his career average of 0.302. The increase is not caused by more contact. His career K% is 21.1%. His 2011 value is 21.1%.
His BABIP this season is 0.367. This value seems high, but it isn’t that far off his career value is 0.355. Using slash12’s xBABIP formula, his 2011 xBABIP of 0.325 and his career xBABIP would be 0.326. Both of these values are below the actual values, but are still respectable. In 2010, he had a 0.330 BABIP and a 0.289 AVG to go with it.
For 2012, I could see his home run total between 20 and 30 and a 0.270 to 0.320 AVG. With those numbers, he should be drafted and started in all leagues. The stats are not ideal for a fantasy 1B in a shallow league, but Morse should be qualified in the OF in most leagues (27 LF starts this season). He will be a decent OF and can flex to 1B when an injury occurs or a player has a day off.
Michael Morse looks like he can keep up the 2011 production into 2012, with the possible exception of a drop in AVG. He adds great roster flexibility since he is qualified at 1B and OF. There is no reason to avoid him on draft day next year.
Alex Gordon has generally been seen as a disappoint since being called up to the majors. After spending a couple seasons bouncing to and from the majors and the minors, he is finally producing like he was somewhat expected to when he was drafted as the #2 overall pick out of Nebraska. Gordon’s break out this season isn’t really a breakout, he has always produced at this level in the majors.
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Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft). Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in. Let’s update the scoring and hit on each owner’s best and worst selections. In other words, it’s time to see who’s in line for some bragging rights.
On Friday, I asked for our reader’s input on a few topics and here are some of the results. Thanks to everyone that filled out a survey (over 330 filled out) and hopefully we can use the information to better serve our readership:
5 categories for each pitching and hitting: 58%
Even with the expansion of other types of fantasy leagues, the basic 5×5 league is still the most common.
Types of Leagues
Roto 46%
H2H 50%
Other 4%
There was almost a 50%-50% split between head to head and roto. We may have not been giving the H2H format enough credit, so there may be more content on them in the future.
Average Number of Teams in a Mixed League:12.4
10 Team League: 24%
12 Team League: 43%
14 or more teams: 20%
Leagues are generally small in number with 2/3 of the leagues having between 10 to 12 teams. This fact leads us to our next bit of data:
% of leagues with a player over 50% owned in all leagues, but still available on the waiver wire: 75%
I have seen many comments on waiver wire articles that the players covered were not available in their leagues. These owners must be the vocal few and players over 50% owned may be popping up more in WW articles.
Percentage of leagues with 1,2, or 3 DL spots: 73%
The number of DL spots for leagues seems low. Long term DL stashing doesn’t seem like a viable option for many owners useless it is a top tier player.
Days for position qualification
1: 2.%
5: 39%
10: 39%
20: 5%
These number are fairly common.
Designate a difference between SP/RP: 77%
With the high number of H2H leagues and those that have SP/RP designations, we should write more articles on starting pitchers with RP qualifications.
Weekly Lineup changes: 24%
Daily Lineup changes: 74%
Mixed League: 89%
AL Only 6%: 6%
NL Only 4%: 4%
Nothing ground breaking with the 2 previous results.
Keeper League: 62%
This was probably the most surprising number out of the whole survey. Almost 2/3 of the leagues are keeper leagues. This off season we will look into more strategies/rankings for these leagues.
FAAB Budget: 20%
Reserve Roster: 30%
I am actually surprised that the numbers are this high for these two results. More future content may be coming on these two topics.
Auction League: 27%
Draft League: 70%
This seems about right with the ease of running a snake draft
Well that is all for today. I may cut and sort the data a little more, but the preceding is a nice snapshot of the current Rotographs readership. In the future we hope to direct more content for the types of leagues and rules readers use. Finally, thanks again for everyone that participated in the survey.
There’s about a month and a half left of regular season baseball to be played, and hopefully you still have a chance to finish in a money spot in your fantasy league. This is a great time to still be paying attention, because many are not. Whether your leaguemates’ focus shifts to football or they are faring too poorly in the standings to still keep as up-to-date as they used to, there is less competition for free agents. Besides the favorable position you may find yourself in with regards to free agents, there are also some strategies to consider for the stretch run.
I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.
Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.
In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).
The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.
It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.
I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.
The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.
As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.
Asdrubal Cabrera has always shown the ability to hit the ball, but he is hitting significantly more home runs this season. His fantasy owners will be happy to know that there are signs that the increase in power looks sustainable.
In 1610 PA before this season, he hit 18 home runs, or 1 every 89 PA. This season, the twenty-five year old has almost equaled his career total in only 445 PA with 17 HRs — or 1 every 26 PA. These new home runs have really increased his value, especially since he is a shortstop. By looking at his contact rate, batted ball profile, batted ball angle and distance, let’s try to determine if the increase is from luck or a change in his ability.
Contact – The switch hitter is making contact 1% more often this season when compared to his career numbers. He is putting a few more balls into play, but not a significant percentage more.
Batted Ball Profile – Cabrera is definitely hitting more fly balls this season when compared to his previous 4 seasons. In those 4 seasons, he hit an FB 32% of the time. In 2011, that value is at 37%.
Hitting 5% points more fly balls will definitely help increase his HR total, but not to the level to triple the number hit. The key is not that he is hitting more FB, but about half as many of the FB (13.8%) are going for HR’s compared to his career numbers (7.2%).
Batted Ball Direction – Using the direction that the ball is hit, we can decide if he is turning on the ball more and putting it in the short porches in left and right field. Using an angle with -45 degrees as the left field line and 45 degrees as the right field line, the average direction of his fly balls and home runs can be determined. Since he is a switch hitter, the the average angles from both sides of the plate need to be examined (most of his home runs are from the left side of the plate):
Batting Right Handed (angle in degrees)
2007 = -3
2008 = +3
2009 = +9
2010 = -7
2011 = +8
Batting Left Handed
2007 = -6
2008 = -4
2009 = -5
2010 = -4
2011 = 0
Looking at when he is hitting right handed, he is definitely not pulling the ball more. Most of his home runs, 13 of the 17, have come when he is batting left handed where he is pulling the ball more this season then in any previous season. It is not a whole lot, but enough to make a difference.
Batted Ball Distance: Besides the angle, the actual distance the ball travels can be examined for when he hits left and right handed
Distance (in feet)
Bating Right Handed
2007 = 270 ft
2008 = 269 ft
2009 = 273 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 281 ft
Batting Left Handed
2007 = 281 ft
2008 = 276 ft
2009 = 300 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 286 ft
In 2011, Cabrera hit the ball further than in any season except for one year. He is generally hitting the ball around 10 ft further in 2011 than in the past from either side of the plate.
Conclusion: Even though Cabrera is making the same amount of contact with the baseball compared to past seasons, he is hitting more fly balls, hitting them further and towards the OF corners. The rise in home runs per fly ball may seem a bit high for Cabrera, but there are signs that the increase seen this season is not all luck.
Jacoby Ellsbury – After spending much of 2010 on the DL, Ellsbury has had a nice break out season in 2011. The main reason for his increase in production has been the ability of the 27 year old to more hit home runs. In over 1500 PA before 2011, he hit a total of 20 home runs. In less than 1/3 that number of PA this season, he has hit 16. I believe the spike in home runs is not caused by a change in his batting profile and can not be sustained.
Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.
There are several items to look for to see if a batter has changed in order to hit more homes. The keys are making contact with the ball more, hitting more fly balls, the direction he hits those fly balls and how far the balls travel.
First, he is putting the ball in play about the same as in the past, maybe actually a little less. His BB% (7.5%) and K% (13.5%) are both a bit higher then his career averages (6.9% and 12.1%).
The second key is that his OFFB% this year (22.9%) is a bit higher then his career value (19.8%). These fly balls have been leaving the yard more often as seen by a jump in his HR/FB% from a career number of 7.8% to 15.2%.
An increase in home runs can usually attributed to hitting the ball further or hitting the ball into shorter corner OF porches. Jose Bautista did both of these two to accomplish his recent break out.
First, here is a look at the angles (-45 is the LF line and +45 is the RF line) of the fly balls and home runs, Ellsbury, a left handed hitter, has hit over the last 3 years. A LOESS averaging curve is added to look for trends.
He has been turning on the ball a bit more in 2011 than in the 2 previous seasons. It is not the at the level that that some hitters do, but it is an improvement.
Finally, the average distance of his outfield fly balls and home runs can be examined to see if he is actually hitting the ball further.
This season Ellsbury has not hit the ball any further than in previous seasons, actually less so.
Conclusion:
There has not been a huge change in Ellsbury’s home run talent this season in my opinion. He is hitting more fly balls and more into the right field corner. On the other hand, he is hitting the ball less and a shorter distance. He may have been unlucky in hitting home runs in previous seasons and this season’s totals is a regression to the mean or this season could be his career year. Either way, I would expect his season home run total to be in the low teens in the future.
By now you’ve read about our RotoGraphs deep-league Pick Six-like draft. For a refresher, here’s Mr. Bender’s rundown of the process and his draft strategy, as well as the method to the madness behind Mr. Sarris’ selections, and if you’re looking for the full draft recap, check Mr. Zimmerman’s post. Now allow me to explain my choices, starting with No. 2 overall.
