Archive for Meta Analysis

Sports fans love to prove their knowledge. They simply need to show that they know more than other fans, their friends and their family. Fantasy owners take that concept even further by putting money where their mouth is. Whether projecting breakouts, predicting busts or drafting minor leaguers they expect to become the next superstar, there are countless opportunities for fantasy owners to show they know their stuff. Unfortunately, for as much as we think we might know about the game and explaining player performance, there are examples every season that convince me that in fact, we don’t know jack.

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Over a month ago, I looked at relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats. Today, I am going to look at a few more of these pitchers.

Mike Stutes, Phi – In late April, Stutes joined the Phillies and was mainly used in low leverage situations. As the Phillies pen has gone through several changes, he has moved into the role as one of the main setup men.

The main reason for his climb has been his ability to strike more than 1 batter per IP (9.13 K/9). The high number of K’s,low BABIP (0.200) and low HR/FB (6.7 HR/FB) has lead to his ERA of 2.00. His FIP (3.93) and xFIP (4.27) are both about twice his ERA and the increase is mainly do to his BB/9 of 5.3.

Stutes seems like a nice option for holds and a vulture and win now and then (3 in the last 4 games he has appeared in), but his ERA does not look sustainable at this low level.

Tony Watson, Pit – Since pitching his first MLB game on Jun 8, Watson has been lights out for the Pirates with an ERA of 0.94. Also he is almost striking out 1 batter per inning (8.4 K/9). This strikeout rate may not be sustainable since he only averaged 7.4 K/9 in minors.

Besides the higher than normal K numbers, he is walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, he has a low BABIP (0.200) and HR/FB rate (0.0). These values can be seen with his his FIP (2.64) and xFIP (3.70) being multiple times higher than his ERA.

He is currently being used in late inning situations so there will be chances for Holds and vulture wins as the season goes on. Watson seems to be a nice option for SP/RP, but his ERA and K/9 will regress a bit.

Sam LeCure, Cin – After 4 games in April as a starter, LeCure has been moved to the pen where his results look like he has excelled. As a starter his ERA was 4.79, but as a reliever it is 0.56. Don’t let these numbers fool you. His K/9 and BB/9 as a starter (8.27, 2.18) were better than those as a reliever (7.88, 2.25). As a reliever he has been helped out with a lower BABIP (0.158 vs 0.268) and HR/FB rate (6.3% vs 18.2%).

As a whole though, LeCure seems to be a fairly servicable reliever with a K/BB over 3.5 and an ERA that should be near the 3.50 range. One area currently that doesn’t bode well for him is that he doesn’t look to be a designated setup men, so the number of holds he gets may be limited.

Hisanori Takahashi, LAA – At the beginning of the season, I looked at Takahashi as a SP/RP to target this season. He started the season performing horribly (6.59 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9). Since May 7th, he has seemed to turn the season around (1.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). I could understand why some owners dumped him, but it may be time to look at possibly picking him up again.

Uneven Trades

Most owners this season have filled their DL slots and probably have an injured player or two on their bench. As these players return from the DL, it might be a good time to look to make a trade that is a little lopsided, but benefits both parties.

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When Albert Pujols fractured his wrist this last weekend, fantasy owners scrambled to find a replacement for him. Besides finding a replacement, owners may be wondering what type of production they should expect from him once he returns later this season. Also, owners may want to know what to expect from him on draft day next season. The following is a quick look at players that went on the DL and their production level before and after their wrist injury.

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When a hitter comes back from the DL our natural inclination is to compare their current performance to their previous performance to see if their talent level has changed. A small sample size of data is used in this exercise, which makes it tough to figure out how much to weigh the new data. To help with this problem, I have created a spreadsheet to take a small sample of a hitter’s stats and estimate their ability.

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As we are well aware, offense and power are down around the league once again. Home runs per game are at their lowest mark since 1992 and ISO is tied with 1993 for lowest since. Below are the five hitters who the biggest declines in their ISO rates versus last season. Using my mastery of sabermetrical statistics and my expert scouting eye, I will attempt to determine which, if any, of these hitters will rebound, making that particular player a good trade target.

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It has been nearly a month since I first took a look at the differential between starting pitchers’ ERA and xFIP. With two months now in the books, it is time for an update. From message board posts and various articles, it seems that many fantasy owners wait until June to really analyze their team and look for trading opportunities. Determining which pitchers have been the luckiest and which have been the most unfortunate is a good exercise to undertake to identity potential trade targets or sell high candidates.

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The Chicago White Sox ponied up $56 million this past winter to secure Adam Dunn’s thunderous bat for four seasons. The move looked like a winner for fantasy owners. While Dunn would transition to the American League, he would get to take his hacks at U.S. Cellular Field, which increases home run production for lefty hitters by 23 percent. When you consider that Dunn deposited 38 balls in the bleachers in both 2009 and 2010 despite playing home games at Nationals Park (94 Home Run Park Factor for lefties), another 40-plus homer reason in 2011 seemed within reach. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system called for Dunn to blast 39 home runs, with an Isolated Power of nearly .290.

It’s now early June, and Dunn has taken a slow trot around the bases just five times. His .145 ISO is just slightly above the .138 major league average this season. The 31 year-old did have an emergency appendectomy in early April, and his performance did trend in the right direction in May after a ghastly opening month. But even so, Dunn — whose bat has been 30 percent better than average during the course of his career, once park and league factors are accounted for — has been 15 percent below average offensively this season. The main reason for Dunn’s downturn at the plate is that he isn’t crushing fastballs near as much as in years past.

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On Saturday, I looked at the five pitchers with the largest differential between their rank amongst all starters in BB/9 and their F-Strike% rank that would suggest an improved walk rate in the future. Today I check out the opposite, those pitchers whose F-Strike% would hint at a worse walk rate than what that pitcher has posted thus far.

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Teams try to avoid having a rookie get labeled with the Super 2 status so they can pay the rookie less over their career. The call up time is coming soon, so it now looks like it may be time to pick up one of these rookies before other fantasy owners in your league.

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