Alex Gordon: He Is Who We Thought He Was

by
August 19, 2011

Alex Gordon has generally been seen as a disappoint since being called up to the majors. After spending a couple seasons bouncing to and from the majors and the minors, he is finally producing like he was somewhat expected to when he was drafted as the #2 overall pick out of Nebraska. Gordon’s break out this season isn’t really a breakout, he has always produced at this level in the majors.

The 27 year old is having a decent season by hitting 0.295 with 15 home runs. Since he has been batting at the top of the Royals line up, he has 76 Runs and 12 SB. ZIP’s ROS has him producing 19 HR, 15 SB, 77 RBIs, 95 Runs and 0.290 AVG. Those numbers are respectable for a player that was drafted in the last rounds, if at all, on draft day. While all these stats look to be career highs, Alex is just this season getting the MLB PA and he is producing like he always did.

Starting with home runs, he has averaged 9.6% HR/FB% over his career with a range of 8.5% to 12.0%. His 10.3% this season fits right in. Besides not hitting any more HR per FB, he is hitting the same number of OF FB this season. He averaged a FB% of 35.5% over his career which has ranged from 30.7% to 39.8%. Again, his 2011 35.1% value fits right in.

Also, it may seem that he is able to be a nice source of SB, which could end up as a personal high since he was first called up in 2007. Over his career he has stolen bases 5.8% of the time he has been on base. This season it was nudged up to 6.2%. Not really a speed break out.

Finally it may seem that Alex’s AVG (0.285) is going to be at a career high this season. This value is being driven by a career high 0.352 BABIP. Even though the BABIP would be a career high in the majors, he did have 0.383 BABIP while in the minors. Using his batted ball data, his xBABIP projects to be 0.330 for the season which is closer to his career value of 0.309.

Alex should have around a 0.280 AVG, 15 to 25 HRs, 10 to 20 SBs, and 150 Runs+RBIs if he gets 600 PA in 2012. These numbers are not going to get him star treatment, but he should viable contributor in all but the shallowest of leagues.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

21 Comments
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Brent
12 years ago

Too bad he doesn’t play 3B. Those predicted numbers from a CI would greatly increase his value.

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Brent

I wouldn’t entirely count out a return to 3B at some point. Have you see how Moustakas has been playing?

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juan pierre's mustache
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

ive also seen that he’s still playing…seems like if they’ve waited this long, they aren’t about to sit him now

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

The Royals FO is a stubborn group, but they are looking at putting others at 3B:

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110817&content_id=23358492&notebook_id=23358498&vkey=notebook_kc&c_id=kc

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sprezzident
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

gordon won’t be grandfathered in at 3b in any league for 2012 based on 2011 appearances, as he has a grand total of zero appearances there thus far. if moose gets sent down during 2011 [unlikely–minor league season length] the starting 3b in his absence will probably be navarro.

hopes for his return to 3b eligibility during 2012 should be tempered because the royals likely go to navarro at 3b if moose starts 2012 in AAA [unless the team’s crush on chris getz causes them to do something ridiculous like move giavotella to 3rd while moose is down]. the flashy outfield assist numbers that DM <3s about jeff francouer are also there for gordon this year, he's gonna stick in left.

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NJ_Andy
12 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Still 3B eligible in Yahoo.

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Mark
12 years ago
Reply to  NJ_Andy

Probably won’t be next year though. He’ll still be a useful third or fourth outfielder, but he’s the only player on all my fantasy teams this year and the dual eligibility has made him incredibly useful, filling in for the David Wrights and Pablo Sandovals and allowing owners to replace them with a respectable waiver wire OF rather than a bleh waiver wire 3B.

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Paul
12 years ago
Reply to  Brent

There is a 0.0 percent chance that Alex Gordon ever plays 3B again for the Royals unless it’s an emergency few innings situation. He was a complete and total butcher over there and just set a team record for OF assists the other day. Move on.

However, if you’re looking for the 3B qualify because you believe the projection presented here, you’re going to lose out. The ability to hit .300 is a special skill that well rounded and valuable fantasy players possess. Alex Gordon had 0.0 chance to hit .300 before completely overhauling his swing over the past year. What we are seeing now is skills consolidation, as Ron Shandler says. BUY.

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