Archive for Meta Analysis

I’ll be here by 12:30! We can talk streamers, keepers, sandwiches, you know, whatever.

At this point in the season, your needs are sharply defined. There’s no time to grab a well-rounded player off the wire — if those were ever on the wire in your league in the first place. Now it’s time for all of those one-dimensional dudes to come to the fore and play their roles. In an effort to best help you find these role players, we’ll group today’s discussion about National League outfielders by stats.

Speed Stats
Stolen bases are not highly correlated with winning unless the player steals them with a high success rate. But stolen bases are highly correlated with runs on a player-by-player level. In other words, fast guys play at the top of the lineup and therefore steal bases and score runs.

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Trading is an important part of most fantasy leagues. With the exception of a few leagues, most notably NFBC formats, owners are free to swap players with their fellow league mates throughout the season until some imposed trading deadline. Many fantasy owners believe that skillful trading, as one component of in-season roster management, is the biggest factor of success. But after passing the deadline in my one league that I commish, I am left wondering: is trading dead?

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On Monday, I introduced my Luck stat for pitchers and hitters. Today, I will look into some improvements to the hitter portion of the stat. Read the rest of this entry »

You play to win the game.

Owners have messed and fussed the entire year (or years) to get to the playoffs. Now it is time to win it all. Every player on a playoff roster needs to be able to help the team in some way. Prospects may need to be dumped for players getting playing time. Don’t drop Bryce Harper if in a keeper league, but you need to make a decision on the your keepers for next season. Get a good idea of these keepers and the rest of the players on your team are then expendable.

Know your and your opponent’s weakness and strengths.

I have made the playoffs in one league and I will win the weekly categories of hitter walks and pitcher strikeouts. I haven’t lost these categories all season. My opponent should not be looking to pick up these categories. Instead they should be looking at Holds, Saves, HR and SB. These categories they have a chance to win.

To get an idea of where the battles are going to be fought, a couple of areas need to be looked at. First, I would look at the entire season rankings of stats, Roto style, and see where each team stands. Does the other team dominate Saves? Maybe compete in Wins then. Also, I would go back over the last few weeks and see how each team compares in various categories. Look to see if there was any significant changes to their team over that time. Did the team trade one of its closers for a power hitter?

Find the categories of contention and try to gain some advantage in them. Are you both close in steals and few extra could make the difference? Are they punting saves and a couple more SP/RP starters will help you win the K and Win categories?

Playing time is more important than talent.

The playoffs are not the time to go chasing after the next big thing being called up from the minors. With 7 of the 10 categories in basic H2H being counting stats, an owner needs players on the field. Also, make sure to check to see if any of your current player’s playing time has changed because of a player being called up.

If you have the win, don’t lose it.

Adjust as the week goes on by holding onto gains in certain stats. If an owner has a huge early lead in WHIP, Saves and ERA, remove the starters if the innings limit as been reached. Just coast with these values until the end of the week and concentrate on winning the batting stats. For example, feel free to drop a pitcher to make sure you have an extra catcher for off days.

Final games of the season.

Right at the end of the season, an owner can game the system with little recourse. If in a non-keeper league, dump pitchers once they have thrown their last start. Depending on what categories are needing help will determine which pitchers are picked up. If Wins and Ks are needed, pick up as many pitchers starting the final days. If you need to improve your ERA and WHIP, look for some good quality relievers to fill the vacated spots.

In fantasy baseball, owners are always looking to take advantage of the lucky and unlucky players by selling high and buying low. I wanted an easy, yet comprehensive stat to find players under or over performing their season’s stats. The final results led me to Luck. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll be by in fifteen for the chatting!

Melky Cabrera is having nice rebound season in Kansas City. Currently he has 17 HR, 17 SB and a 0.302 AVG. It is the 27 year old’s best fantasy season of his career. His value in 2012 will be determined if he can maintain this production level Read the rest of this entry »

The stats of the 8th hitter in the National League can be deceiving because of the pitcher hitting after them. Teams pitch around the 8th hitter. They are not allowed to make an out with the pitcher hitting, so are rarely given the green light to steal a base. I have gone through and looked at how the stats of the 8th hitter change when they are moved to another position in the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, I took a look at the top five decliners in isolated slugging percentage and tried to determine whether any would rebound in 2012. Today I check in on the top five surgers in the metric. Let’s see if any have a chance to hold onto their power gains next season.

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