This is going to get ugly fast. Here is my current Tout Wars pitching staff:

That’s right, it contains three of the biggest disappoints so far this season. The results have my team posting a 4.88 ERA. The next closest is at 4.35. The destruction has my WHIP also in last place. It’s time to examine the trio to see if there is any hope.

Before getting to these three, owners should now start examining their pitchers in detail to see what is and isn’t working. Spending a minute or two on each pitcher can possibly unearth items such as lost velocity or a new pitch mix.

Chris Archer

I knew Archer was a risk with his two-pitch arsenal which may get lit up later in games. This season, he can’t even make it to those later innings.

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In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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The NFBC is conducting drafts already and has generated an ADP from nine leagues. We will soon be hosting NFBC ADP here at Fangraphs, but right now it’s only available to those with a league on the site so you’ll have to take my word on these prices. I decided to look at how my Top 50 starters (updated since this October run so don’t get too hung up on those… update coming after the New Year) matched up with the market and highlight some of the biggest discrepancies. Today we’re focused on the guys I like more than the market.

PITCHERS I FAVOR:

Michael Wacha – 45th for me; 72nd in NFBC

Not to undercut the entire premise of this piece, but I have to mention how tight the middle group of starters really is again in 2017. Seeing a 27-spot difference feels stark, but just comparing my own 72nd guy to Wacha – Patrick Corbin – highlights how close it is in that range. That isn’t to say that the rankings don’t matter, there are still factors that will have you preferring one guy over another. I still see upside in the 27-year old (July 1st birthday which has him right on that cusp so he’ll be listed as age-26 some places, age-27 at others) righty for the Cards.

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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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Current Trade Value: Eric Thames

The industry’s “Buy Low/Sell High” talk frustrates me because 90% of the time no context is given. Owners should expect to get some players at a discount but what are the player’s owners expecting and valuing in a rebound.

Ryan Zimmerman seems to be a sell high candidate. He’s having a great season with a .420 AVG and 11 HR. Pretty much everyone expects him to regress. But how much regression? Don’t guess. Do a little research and see how other fantasy owners value him by checking on actual trades.

The best source I’ve found to track 1-for-1 trades is Yahoo’s Trade Market. The site has a major limitation: only trades from that day are listed so it’s best to check in the evening. I will do a quick analysis of the league’s other hot hitter, Eric Thames.

Yesterday, I found Thames was traded straight up for Aroldis Chapman, Khris Davis, and Stephen Strasburg. Thames’s ADP was 182 or around a 15 round value. The other three had ADPs of 46 (Chapman), 50 (Strasburg), and 102 (Davis). They average out to around 66 with the two 50’s pointing to a possible higher value.

The players taken around 66 overall were Kyle Seager, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Kyle Hendricks. Good but not elite players. It’s still a huge move up for Thames.

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It seems there was a major influx of drafts into this week’s ADP data. I imagine the NFBC is administering more drafts on a regular basis, but they might’ve also had a bunch of their draft-and-hold leagues finish up and get into the data.

For the uninitiated: I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• February 22nd
• February 28th
• March 7th
• March 14th

BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +28 spots to pick 333

This is three weeks in a row for Gomez as the biggest riser. That’s what being announced into a closer’s role will do for you. Greg Holland (+15 to 308) already got a huge boost and I think he’ll keep surging and wind up just inside the 250 in these next two weekends if he is in fact officially named as closer.

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Continuing our weekly series, I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• February 22nd
• February 28th
• March 7th

BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +17 spots to pick 361

Oh look at you, Jeanmar! Back-to-back weeks as the biggest riser as the market adjusts to him at least starting the season in the closer’s role. Despite his two big jumps, he’s still 120 picks behind Hector Neris, though that’s built on early drafts when most assumed Neris would get the role because he’s actually good at pitching.

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I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• February 22nd
• February 28th

BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +27 spots to pick 378

Gomez dethroned Neftali Feliz (+23), who was going for a three-peat as the biggest riser. Gomez was named the closer by manager Pete Mackanin instead of an open competition with Gomez, Joaquin Benoit, and Hector Neris. However, despite the jump, Gomez sits only 10 spots ahead of Benoit and is actually 140 spots behind Neris. The Phillies might be showing some confidence in Gomez, but the market isn’t following suit.

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The second installment of my new series tracking the NFBC average draft position market will be formatted a little differently and you can let me know which works best. I will still highlight the biggest riser and faller, but then I’ll go position-by-position for a takeaway or two. Let’s see how that works compared to last week’s. Comment below on your preferred method.

Previous Editions:

• February 22nd

BIGGEST RISER: Neftali Feliz – +20 spots to pick 307

For the second straight week, the assumed Brewers closer is the big mover up the board. It’s not impossible to see why. His velocity returned last year, surging back to 96 MPH on average, and so did his strikeout (28%) and swinging strike (14%) rates – the latter being a career-best. The home run rate (1.7 HR/9) is worrisome, but a sky-high 19% HR/FB seems unlikely to repeat, even for a flyball pitcher like Feliz. Even with back-to-back big surges up the board, he’s still just 33rd reliever off the board so he’s likely to keep moving up. I suspect he’ll land somewhere in the mid-20s which is still cheap enough to invest, even with his flaws.

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This is a new series for the fantasy draft season where I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following.

(This will usually drop on Monday or Tuesday, but with the rankings roll out, it was delayed a day.)

BIGGEST RISER: Neftali Feliz – up 48 spots to pick 327

He signed in Milwaukee over a month ago, but the market is working down an ADP that was essentially non-existent so I wouldn’t even get comfortable with the 327 average. With a Max Pick of 713, his only value was as a late-round draft pick for the Draft Champions leagues (50-round, draft and hold) before joining the Brewers where he is likely to close. His Min Pick of 167 is only down two spots, so I’m sure it’s a lot of slotting in the 167-200 range that is steadily moving his ADP. That range slots him in the early-20s among relievers, which feels right given the resurgent velocity and strikeout rate plus an opportunity.

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