Market Watch: A Blizzard of Activity

It seems there was a major influx of drafts into this week’s ADP data. I imagine the NFBC is administering more drafts on a regular basis, but they might’ve also had a bunch of their draft-and-hold leagues finish up and get into the data.

For the uninitiated: I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• February 22nd
• February 28th
• March 7th
• March 14th

BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +28 spots to pick 333

This is three weeks in a row for Gomez as the biggest riser. That’s what being announced into a closer’s role will do for you. Greg Holland (+15 to 308) already got a huge boost and I think he’ll keep surging and wind up just inside the 250 in these next two weekends if he is in fact officially named as closer.

BIGGEST FALLER (non-injury): Derek Norris | -15 to pick 303

He was designated for assignment by the Washington Nationals so this isn’t a surprise. He will get picked up so he might not be a bad C2 in deeper leagues where you kind of punt the spot. He had a nightmare 2016 (55 wRC+) and yeah, he did see his strikeout rate jump to 30%, but there wasn’t enough the profile to explain such a fall off. Unless he’s seriously injured, he should bounce back to at least a 90 or so wRC+, something only 14 catchers did last year. And only J.T. Realmuto (-1 to 113) topped Norris’ nine stolen bases with 12 of his own.

Last week’s biggest faller, Chris Carter (-10 to 276), took another tumble as interest rises on Greg Bird (+5 to 240, including a min pick of 100!).

NEWCOMERS TO THE TOP 500: Brandon McCarthy at pick 497

I guess it’s because he’s actually pitching. That’s not to slam him, he’s just struggled with health throughout his career. This rise also lends credence to the idea that several draft-and-hold leagues were added to the dataset because he is definitely someone who goes in all of those leagues just in case he can spike another 135-inning (or better) season.

Since there was so much movement, I’m just going to group some risers and fallers in order to cover more names.

INTERESTING RISERS:

Mitch Haniger (+25 to 352) was mentioned last week and I’m not really surprised that he has taken another jump. His min pick jumped 28 spots inside the 200 mark, too, at 190. If you’re in on the Haniger hype train, you should expect to pay a pick at least inside the top 250 and if he continues to rake (1.151 OPS, 8 XBH in 51 AB), then he might start going around that min pick with some regularity (in between picks 190 and 220 or so).

Cody Bellinger (+23 to 466) is one of the buzzier prospects without a role and he’s not doing anything to steal one in spring (.560 OPS in 46 AB), but keep an eye on the outfield situation in LA. While Bellinger is a first base prospect, it’s not for a lack of athleticism and he could figure into the Dodgers outfield at some point this season.

Tony Wolters (+17 to 380) was getting some attention before Tom Murphy’s (-5 to 229) injury as it was becoming clear that Colorado wasn’t just going to lean on Murphy as the clear starter. At the worst, Wolters should be on the strong side of the platoon with Dustin Garneau getting some looks against lefties.

Did I miss something on Santiago Casilla (+17 to 445)? His min pick soared 125 spots to 132 for some reason. I’m having a hard time on that one.

Tyler Saladino (+16 to 417) should be sliding up your draft board after the release of Brett Lawrie (-8 to 393) on the White Sox. Saladino quietly put up a .282/8 HR/11 SB season in 93 games (319 PA) last year with a strong finish and now has a bead on playing time. He had just a .602 OPS in 68 games back in 2015, so he has essentially a full season of work with 12 HR and 19 SB. If he’s more ’16 than ’15, he could be a 15/30 player and his flexibility means even a Yoan Moncada (-2 to 247) call-up doesn’t automatically curb Saladino’s time.

Other movers of note in the top 300:

• Neftali Feliz (+18 to 254) – We’ve chronicled his surge up the rankings all winter.
• Lance Lynn (+8 to 287) – He’s about 16 months removed from his TJ surgery and looking strong in spring.
• Keon Broxton (+7 to 171) – The 27-year old is having a huge spring (1.141 OPS, 8 XBH in 41 AB) and has a firm grasp on the center field job if he’s up for the challenge. This team loves to run, too.
• Jharel Cotton (+7 to 241) – Big, big fan of Cotton this year, but let’s keep expectations in check. He shouldn’t go too much higher than this year. In fact, now going at SP67 puts him right in line with our consensus and very close to my SP65 slotting.
• Eduardo Rodriguez (+7 to 293) – The talent is evident for the 24-year old lefty, but the knee needs to stay healthy.
• Shawn Kelley (+7 to 221) – Welllll, this will likely change sharply this week with news of Koda Glover (pick 522) auditioning for the role and doing quite well (11 K, 1 BB, 1 ER in 8 IP).

INTERESTING FALLERS:

As expected, most of the biggest fallers are injured guys so I’ll focus on some non-injured fallers. Unless you need me to break down why David Price is down 10 spots to pick 61… but I don’t think you do. I’m also going to focus exclusively on fallers within the top 300 here.

Jung Ho Kang (-9 to 261) – He hasn’t acquired his work visa to return from South Korea after a tumultuous offseason centered around his drunk driving. He is currently on the restricted list and of course will need to get himself into game shape when (if?) he arrives. I think I’m just passing altogether at this juncture.

Orlando Arcia (-6 to 275) – The market has cooled on the uber prospect despite a seemingly clear path to playing time in Milwaukee. I’m considering Hernan Perez (-3 to 188) more after being totally out on him to start draft season.

Adam Ottavino (-5 to 170) – Beat writer speculation has fueled the Holland-as-closer talk, though they are obviously more plugged in than most so I can imagine a scenario Nick Groke of the Denver Post has been led to believe Holland will close when ready as opposed to just making it up. If so, that of course dings Ottavino, who was thought to be the closer heading into the season before these latest talks. I am still willing to take Ottavino, especially now that his price is dropping.

Matt Harvey (-5 to 149) – This is kind of injury-related given that he’s coming off of thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, but he hasn’t suffered a setback or a new injury to prompt the drop. He’s just been giving up runs in Spring Training (7.30 ERA in 12.3 IP), but he does still have a 12:2 K/BB ratio and he’s touching the mid-90s. I need the price to keep coming down, but I’m not totally out on Harvey.

C.J. Cron (-4 to 240) – With Albert Pujols (+2 to 139) now on track for Opening Day, GM Billy Eppler’s words about Luis Valbuena (+6 to 457) from when he signed are now getting more attention:

“He’s going to play,” Eppler said. “We signed him for a reason. I like the power and the selectivity and the ability to impact the baseball. … He knows he’ll be in the lineup very regularly and the entire time against a right-handed pitcher.”

That makes Cron the odd man out against righties and really dings his value. The perception of Pujols is the he’s a worn down old man, but it’s worth noting that he’s played 152 games or more in four of the last five seasons, including each of the last three. Only 19 players have done that since 2012 and only three of those (Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Adrian Gonzalez) have done it all five seasons. He is 37 years old and the plantar faciitis could once again wreak havoc, but I’m dropping Cron outside of my top 250.