Today’s list is a weird group of players. Most should have been dropped last week once the ramifications of the trade deadline were known. Discrepancy Theory #1 is that about 20% of the owners blew off the post-trade deadline FAAB period (tough to miss this one) and finally caught up. If there was any week to be paying attention, it was the previous bidding period.

Or Theory #2 is that these owners were sheep waiting to see what other owners did with their drops. Most of the drops (e.g Tim Beckham) I would consider obvious, but maybe these owners need confirmation on making their moves. Or they use the platform’s ownership rate to see who to drop. I’m not sure if it’s wrong or right to wait a week on dropping someone. Waiting might be the correct move. It’s interesting and I’ll ponder the delay a bit more.

Also, if anyone happened to missed the last few articles, I’ve been trying to improve this article’s content. The major change is that I’m concentrating on players dropped in six to nine leagues. For now, this range seems the most useful for fantasy owners.

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I had some doubts about this list’s usefulness a couple of weeks back and yesterday I tried to find ways to improve it. I came to the conclusion that players in the 10% to 25% dropped range were the most interesting. This works out to players dropped in four to nine leagues. Before, I was just looking at those in 10 or more leagues. I was way off target.

After looking over the players, I’m going to squeeze the range a little more from those dropped in six to nine leagues which works out to 34 players this week. I’d like to focus on 20 or so players each week but know that there was a post-deadline frenzy pushing the total up.
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With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

• Astros get Zack Greinke
• Diamondbacks get Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Joshua Rojas

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

• Phillies get Corey Dickerson
• Pirates get a PTBNL and cash

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

• Brewers get Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz
• Giants get Mauricio Dubon

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

• Astros get Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, Cal Stevenson
• Blue Jays get Derek Fisher

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

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In Tout Wars this season, I’ve run Jose Ramirez out every week. I have no issues sitting a struggling star but in Ramirez’s case, I’m basically running out Billy Hamilton which helps with steals.

One of the following stat lines in for Billy Hamilton and the other for Jose Ramirez

A. .227/.302/.280 with 16 SB
B. .211/.299/.320 with 18 SB

Which one is Ramirez?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) June 24, 2019

I’ve been waiting for a rebound but nothing so far. He’s hit .286/.310/.500 this past week but it’s just acceptable. It’s not enough to offset the horrible weeks. The numbers are lower than his preseason projections. Today, I want to determine if any hope exists for an offensive rebound. How often has a hitter been projected to hit as well as Ramirez and then struggled so bad and did he rebound? It doesn’t look good.

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I’m experimenting with a new article format this year. Instead of concentrating on the most added players, I’m going to concentrate on those poor souls owners are throwing in the towel on. Most of the discarded players will have been demoted to the minor or dinged up. It’s the few who don’t fit into either of these two categories who I will focus on. Sadly, there aren’t many this first week.

To find which players are being dropped, I’m going to use the NFBC Main Event leagues. They are 15-team roto leagues which have some depth and most of the owners will be trying since each posted a $1K+ entry fee. The league will contain active owners making overall trends easier to spot. This week, I have the adds and drops from only 18 leagues since some leagues haven’t drafted yet and included my top-three choices at the end.

Injured List

Jason Kipnis: 7

Kipnis and the scrubs the Indians are using in the infield should be monitored closely. Kipnis should get his job back once healthy and he could be a reasonable buy a week early for a team needing infield help.

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There wasn’t a ton of moves with fantasy implications over the weekend but there was enough to lump together some. I’m still at the point that no major team breakdowns can really start with the two big bats still available. Anyways, here is a breakdown of the moves:

Phillies sign David Robertson

The 33-year-old righty immediately joins the Phillies closer discussion for the simple reason he’s projected to be the best bullpen arm. Steamer has him for a 3.22 ERA with Seranthony Dominguez next at 3.39 and previous closer Hector Neris at 3.62.

The Phillies front office would prefer Robertson to close instead of the other two to save money. The team is already on the hook for his $23 million dollar contract, so his price is set. The more Saves the pre-arbitration arms get, the higher their arbitration contracts will cost.

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I’m not above “borrowing” a good idea from a colleague. Yesterday, Paul Sporer wrote about five players he’d give a second chance in 2019. These were names with a little helium attached who failed to deliver value for various reasons. I especially agree with Jorge Polanco who improved throughout his PED-shortened season.

Shall we get to it? To quote Paul, “the hype is gone, their price has tanked, and now is the time to buy!”

Five More Buyback Candidates

Bradley Zimmer | Cleveland Indians | ADP 512

By ADP, Zimmer has fallen straight off the face of the earth. After a mixed debut in 2017 which included decent power, surprising speed, and not nearly enough contact, a shoulder injury limited Zimmer to just 114 plate appearances in 2018. When he did play, he performed poorly. Even with only a 63 wRC+, he was on pace for a 1.5 WAR season. He’s a quality defender which will help ensure he plays.

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We’ve made it to the New Year! It is the dead of winter, but at least with fantasy football being done, we’re flipping the fantasy calendar back toward baseball. Those who really dive into both sports will now begin their baseball deep dive and that’ll move the ADP markets for sure, so keep that in mind when I reference these draft spots. Today I want to look at five players I’m buying back after disappointing 2018 seasons. The hype is gone, their price has tanked, and now is the time to buy!

Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | 261 ADP

Happ and teammate Javier Baez were going in the same ADP range last year just around the Top 100 and I chose Happ… whoops. Although, Ozzie Albies was going around them, too, and I favored him over the two Cubs so I didn’t get too crushed by my awful Happ over Baez decision. Not that Albies over Baez was some great win. When Happ hit a home run on the first pitch of the season, my confirmation bias went into overdrive. I’m not proud of it, but I definitely got way too hyped over that whopping ONE PITCH SAMPLE! He went 0-for-4 with 3 Ks the rest of that game and wound up with a .233/.353/.408 line, 15 HR, and 8 SB in 462 PA.

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The current fantasy focus is evaluating the top-100 or so players, especially the first couple rounds. I’m going to deep dive and investigate some later round values.  I will group 10 players together and pick which one I would take earlier than the others.

201: Arodys Vizcaino
202: Jonathan Schoop
203: Kevin Gausman
204: Luke Voit
205: Chris Taylor
206: Jake Arrieta
207: Forrest Whitley
208: Ross Stripling
209: Odubel Herrera
210: Yusei Kikuchi

There are several players I really like in this group like Taylor, Stripling, and Herrera but easily the best bargain is Kikuchi.

Kikuchi isn’t on par with Asian imports Ohtani or Darvish but he’s still extremely talented. He’s considered to be a better talent than Miles Mikolas and Mikolas is going 86th overall. I believe once Kikuchi signs and everyone gets to know him, his ADP will be cut in half and around a top-100 pick, if not double digits.
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