Late-Round Bargains: ADP Over 200

The current fantasy focus is evaluating the top-100 or so players, especially the first couple rounds. I’m going to deep dive and investigate some later round values.  I will group 10 players together and pick which one I would take earlier than the others.

201: Arodys Vizcaino
202: Jonathan Schoop
203: Kevin Gausman
204: Luke Voit
205: Chris Taylor
206: Jake Arrieta
207: Forrest Whitley
208: Ross Stripling
209: Odubel Herrera
210: Yusei Kikuchi

There are several players I really like in this group like Taylor, Stripling, and Herrera but easily the best bargain is Kikuchi.

Kikuchi isn’t on par with Asian imports Ohtani or Darvish but he’s still extremely talented. He’s considered to be a better talent than Miles Mikolas and Mikolas is going 86th overall. I believe once Kikuchi signs and everyone gets to know him, his ADP will be cut in half and around a top-100 pick, if not double digits.

211: Joey Lucchesi
212: Josh James
213: Corey Dickerson
214: Adam Eaton
215: Jesse Winker
216: Jordan Hicks
217: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
218: Jeurys Familia
219: Ryan Braun
220: Trey Mancini

Another list will several names I’d not be surprised move up. The name with the most upside is Ryan Braun. I completely understand health is an issue and always will be, but his balanced approach will make him valuable when he plays. In 15-team AVG leagues last season, he was a $14 value without any replacement level value baked in. The disappointment tax his high with him.

221: Andrelton Simmons
222: Johan Camargo
223: Nick Senzel
224: Trevor Williams
225: Marwin Gonzalez
226: Jhoulys Chacin
227: Miguel Sano
228: DJ LeMahieu
229: Alex Wood
230: Yan Gomes

None of these names stick out. I might pop on Gomes if I needed a second catcher. It’s a tough choice but I think, I’ll go with Sano, but it’s really close with Senzel. Senzel may sit on my bench for a couple months while Sano’s talent, or lack of it, will be quickly noticeable and I can move on.

231: Tyler White
232: Jackie Bradley Jr.
233: Dellin Betances
234: Justin Smoak
235: Ketel Marte
236: Cody Allen
237: Kyle Seager
238: Carlos Santana
239: Zack Godley
240: Francisco Mejia

I’d likely draft four to six players (Smoak, Marte, Seager, Santana, Godley, and Mejia) from this group before all the others in the previous group. I think I’ll go with Ketel Marte before the others but I could see another owner go with needs and take Smoak for power or Santana for on-base.

Marte has limited upside but he has a nice talent base to build off of and may be heading to center field soon.

while incumbent second baseman and sometimes shortstop Ketel Marte could see time in center field.

He’s a solid player at this point of the draft especially for an owner filling out their middle infield spot.

241: Mike Zunino
242: Manuel Margot
243: Peter Alonso
244: Jorge Alfaro
245: Josh Bell
246: Willians Astudillo
247: Reynaldo Lopez
248: Didi Gregorius
249: Mychal Givens
250: Ian Happ

While there are some fun players on this list, it’s a rough list. If an owner has a spot to take a chance on a rookie, Alonso is worth taking. I’d instead go with Givens. It’s not choice I feel great about but a closer, or more precisely, the chance of closer, should be a gamble. I’d rather pay nothing for him as the 250th player than have to send FAAB for his replacement.

251: Carlos Rodon
252: Drew Steckenrider
253: Adam Ottavino
254: Archie Bradley
255: Kenta Maeda
256: Danny Jansen
257: Randal Grichuk
258: Julio Urias
259: Dereck Rodriguez
260: Joe Musgrove

Another great batch and the choice is difficult. Owners should probably be making the choice off need, but in a pure vacuum, it’s Randal Grichuk. A real potential for 30 homers this late, sign me up.

261: Jimmy Nelson
262: Julio Teheran
263: Steven Matz
264: Brian Anderson
265: Tyler Skaggs
266: Tucker Barnhart
267: Jeremy Jeffress
268: A.J. Minter
269: Scott Schebler
270: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Yuck. It’s got to be Brian Anderson for me. Qualified at third and outfield but a 52% GB% is dragging down his value. This pick is more on potential than production. Skaggs was a close second.

We hoped you liked reading Late-Round Bargains: ADP Over 200 by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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caponehollywood
Member
caponehollywood

In that last group I feel like Nelson has arguably the highest upside, maybe in this entire grouping. Unless Anderson learns to hit the ball in the air with authority or gets more potential for some counting stats, I don’t love him.

Jim Melichar
Member
Member
Jim Melichar

Jimmy has elite upside and didn’t injure his throwing shoulder. That year away really made people forget.

wily mo
Member

“didn’t injure his throwing shoulder” uhh might want to double check that