Prorated 2018 Hitter Roto Values

I try not to miss examining players who had great, short seasons. An injury or time in the minors kept them off the end-of-season rankings. They flew under the radar but given a full season of playing time they stick out and could provide hidden value. Today, I’m going to start by examing the top prorated hitters.

I needed a way to value the hitters and decided to create an overall Standing Gain Points (SGP) formula from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational leagues. The 13 15-team leagues were set up with  14 hitters (1 C, 2 Util), 9 pitchers, and used AVG. Tanner Bell and I will be providing this formula, along with several others, in our new book, The Process, available within weeks (shameless plug).

The full rankings (min 100 PA) are available in this Google Spreadsheet and here are the top 25 with my comments on some players I find interesting.

Adalberto Mondesi

Owners need to expect his valuations are going to be all over the place. The biggest issue, in my opinion, will be that one owner anchoring onto his 2018 stats. There is going to be one in every draft putting Mondesi’s average draft position in the top few rounds.

He’s not a player I’m going shy away from though as he’s got the power-elite speed profile of Trea Turner. The biggest question with Mondesi is how much his lack of any plate discipline limits his upside.

Luke Voit

It was a great season for Voit but it’s tough to know if he’ll still play every day for the Yankees. The Yankees are likely to add one or two big name free agents, so he may get pushed to the bench.

Also, owners must understand his 41% HR/FB will drop. Hard.

Shohei Ohtani

With Ohtani, his 2019 value comes down when he can finally start hitting (eight-month rehab for hitters) and then how much his pitching rehab will affect his hitting. Will Ohtani just quit hitting to rehab? With he hit every few days as he rests his arm. The regular playing time just may not be there and maybe a roster headache.

Tyler O’Neill

The Cardinals had a glut of outfielders last season (Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Tommy Pham) and O’Neill just didn’t get a chance to contribute much. But when he did play, his nine home runs in 142 PA look pretty. He’s likely to get overlooked but could be a decent source of 30 home runs for not much investment.

Yasiel Puig and Max Muncy

The issue with about any Dodger hitter is how much playing time will they get. Yasmani Grandal was third on the team with 518 PA. It’s tough to project any Dodger, besides Bellinger (and Harper), for over 600 plate appearances.

Yoenis Cespedes

He’s starting to turn into Tulowitzki with all the injuries.

David Dahl

I have no idea what the Rockies are doing with their young players. None. I feel the Ian Desmond signing set this team back and they just can’t admit they screwed up signing him.

It finally seems like Dahl will get full-time playing time this upcoming season but who the hell knows. Even so, I have a notion he’ll be on a ton of preseason sleeper lists

Ramon Laureano

The prorated numbers look nice. I was on Laureano before the 2017 season, but injury-related struggles did him in. I like his profile going into 2019 providing some batting average, power, and speed.