Trade Implications for Mixed Leagues
With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.
Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.
Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)
• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.
• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.
• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.
• Jonathan Villar (Orioles): Villar didn’t have a full-time role after he finished with his latest rehab starts. With the Orioles, he slots into Jonathan Schoop’s second-base spot and could gain even more stolen bases and value depending on where he hits in the lineup.
• Logan Forsythe (Twins): Forsythe was in a part-time role with the Dodgers even before the addition of Manny Machado. With the Twins trading away both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, Forsythe slots into Dozier’s second-base job. While Forsythe doesn’t have any outstanding trait, he’s an acceptable accumulator.
• Anthony Swarzak and Robert Gsellman (Mets): The Mets haven’t decided on a closer (it’s not like they need one), but one of these two will likely be the man. For now, it looks like Swarzak has the edge.
• Ken Giles (Blue Jays): For those teams churning for Saves, Giles is an obvious closer in waiting. He’s better than Ryan Tepera and should slide into the closer’s role if Tepera falters.
• Jace Fry , Jeanmar Gomez, Juan Minaya, and Luis Avilan (White Sox): Someone is going to get Saves for the White Sox after Joakim Soria was traded, it’s just tough to determine exactly who. Follow our Bullpen Report for the latest updates.
• Kevin Gausman (Braves): The 27-year-old righty has not lived up to his prospect status and continues to struggle (4.43 ERA). With the Orioles, he was a streaming option, at best. Now, he’s a better streaming option.
• Cameron Maybin (Mariners) and Leonys Martin (Indians): Both were borderline startable on their old teams but are now more startable. I see both getting an ownership boost with the change in scenery. It’s tough to know right now if the small nudge up will make them ownable in 15-team leagues.
• Brian Goodwin (Royals): I figured Goodwin would be a decent accumulator on a bad Royals team. Since being traded, though, he’s only started four of six games.
• Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows (Rays): These two could see their fantasy value vary between mixed-league viable to completely useless. The Rays are moving Glasnow into their rotation and he is starting today. I included both so owners would check in on their usage patterns.
• More Rays “starters,” including Jalen Beeks: With the trades of Chris Archer and Nathan Eovaldi, a couple spots have opened up in the Rays rotation. It’s not obvious who will fill the spots and how long with each throw.
• Victor Reyes and JaCoby Jones (Tigers): With Leonys Martin traded away, both could be the full-time outfielders and be OK stolen-base threats.
Biggest Declines (Headed to Waiver Wire)
• Keone Kela (Pirates), Brad Hand (Indians), Joakim Soria (Brewers), Jeurys Familia (A’s): No Saves, little value. Hand and Kela may still be ownable as setup men, though.
• Ian Kinsler (Red Sox): What little value Kinsler had as a middle-infield option just died. He’ll now be sharing time with Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, and Dustin Pedroia and hitting at the end of the lineup instead of leading off.
• Third to fifth starters on contenders: With every contender adding bullpen arms, they are shortening the game to the point where starters don’t throw five innings, leading to fewer Strikeouts and Wins.
For example, here is a game from Monday between the Dodgers and Brewers:
Neither starter went five innings and then it became a bullpen game. The Brewers shut down the Dodgers and went home with the win. Expect to see more of these games, especially with contending team jockeying for wins.
• Several Brewers… again: The Brewers already had too many serviceable infielders when Mike Moustakas forced Travis Shaw to move to second base. Now, the Brewers have traded for Jonathan Schoop, as well. I’ve read several different possible scenarios on how the situation will play out, but no one knows for sure. Follow the lineups for a few days to see who plays and who is on the bench.
• Jorge Alfaro (Phillies): With the addition of Wilson Ramos, Alfaro is no longer a viable option in two-catcher leagues.
• Roberto Osuna (Astros): At least this [redacted] won’t be getting any more Saves this season.
Update (8/1/18 afternoon): When I wrote this take, I really believed the Astros would stoop so low as to remove a similarly talented closer and replace him with a wife beater. It seems others disagree. After reading through several takes on the situation, some disagree. Best take is from MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart:
“Hector Rondon inherited the closer’s role earlier this year while Giles struggled again, but the job will likely be Osuna’s when he’s activated Sunday.”
• Rookie Yankee Starters: With the additions of J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn, the Yankees rotation has plenty of veteran arms. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga have almost no fantasy value without injuries to the regular staff.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
How does the acquisition of Dozier impact playing time for other Dodgers position players?
As a Chris Taylor owner at SS with no good options to replace him I’m very worried he will get squeezed into a utility role. I wouldn’t blame the Dodgers for doing it either.
I’m particularly concerned about Muncy myself, counting on him as my primary 2B down the stretch with a couple inferior options to fall back on if needed.
Great article. The point about mediocre starters on contenders is accurate and frustrating. Two comments:
1. Craig Counsell has said Schoop will play shortstop. He didn’t say only shortstop, but that’s where the black hole is in the offense. Schoop played SS in the minors (unspectacularly), has the arm for it, and his range should be below average but playable if he hits. Then next year it’s back to Shaw 3B & Schoop 2B.
2. It’s far from clear who will be saving games in Houston in mid-August. I would give Osuna at least an even chance over Rondon, but it may come down to how they pitch. My Astros fan friend sees it this way also. I’m holding both for now (same team…not sure if that’s lucky or unlucky).
How do you see the Braves rotation shaking out? I’m in a deep NL league and had hoped Max Fried would stay on the staff, but now it seems worrisome.
I’d venture that Osuna will in fact be getting the lion’s share of the saves once he gets his sea legs back.
Most outlets expect Osuna to slide into the closer role this year, Jeff (rotoworld, rotowire). Why don’t you think he’ll get any saves this year?
tough to say that 3-5 starters won’t get the innings. Last night Milwuakee/LA played and both starters(Miley and Buehler- so 5th starters) went 7 innings.
The night before- in the example you gave- the reason the pitchers didn’t go long was they sucked. Both guys were given about 100 pitches. It’s not like the starters were pulled after 60 pitches.
I agree with you on that specific game – both were just inefficient. However, I also think Jeff’s point is generally true and has been more and more true as time goes on. Guys are just not given the chance to throw 5 nearly as often any more even if they’re pitching decently. Using b-ref’s Play Index I searched for the number of games where a starter:
– went at least 3 IP but less than 5 IP (so <= 4.2 IP, the 3+ qualifier should get rid of all the Rays "starts" this year as well as most of the injury games),
– had given up no more than 3 runs (so they were pitching decently)
– had thrown less than 95 pitches
These are games that guys would have been permitted to get through the 5th (or at least give it a shot) 20 years ago. They simply aren't being allowed to nearly as often any more.
Here are the totals:
2000 72
2001 93
2002 131
2003 98
2004 121
2005 86
2006 105
2007 122
2008 109
2009 120
2010 90
2011 83
2012 136
2013 124
2014 124
2015 165
2016 188
2017 230
2018 159
If you figure we're about 2/3 of the way through the season, 2018 pro-rates to roughly 240. However, I would bet anything that the number of games like this explodes in September when roster expand (it's probably also higher in April coming out of spring training). I don't have the time to follow-up on that so I obviously could be wrong.
you might be right- just a terrible example.
1 thing I would say- this year the average start(to even include all the openers) is 90 pitches. So your criteria of throwing less than 95 pitches is a bit high. That is a bit inefficent.
If you take the pitches down to 70. That’s much more of your bullpenning type of starts…..
2018 53
2017 84(33 this time last year)
I would also argue a guy giving up 3 runs in less than 5 innings isn’t necessarily pitching well. That’s a 5.79 ERA at best.
if you have pitches down to 70, runs down to 2
2018 40
2017 56(23 this time last year)
So definitely more bullpenning. But the question is- are these starts by good teams or are they by teams that just aren’t that good? Houston/Cleveland/Yankees have exactly 0 of these. Red Sox have 2. Seattle has 1. Oakland has none. So 3 by the 6 contenders in the AL. Over in the NL- LA has 4 of these, but Cubs 1, Atl 0, Phi 0, Mil 1, Az 1, and Col 2. Was 1, Stl 0, Pit 1, SF 1. So top 11 NL teams have a total of 12. So top 17 teams have a total of 15 of these games. Other 13 teams have 25 of those.
Osuna – I was under the same impression as the other commentors that Osuna would take over the closer role in time for the playoffs. I have Rondon, so it’d be nice if you were right.
Maeda (#3 to 5’s) – That was a high pitch count game for him. I think you’re right in a sense that there will be shorter leashes for those SPs, but if they’re awful that game, I don’t want him to go 5 or 6 IP any way.
Of all the things to be worried about with Kinsler, “sharing time with Dustin Pedroia” seems like it’d be on the same tier with “sharing time with Jerry Remy”.
Pedroia is “not expected back this year” per the latest update from the Sox. Also Nunez has been a dumpster fire and Brock Holt! defines utility player: all is well in Sox world for the rest of 2018 with Kinsler getting the lion’s share of 2B reps.
To echo thoughts here, it’s fair to wonder if Kinsler is mostly cooked, but I don’t believe this move is a negative for him (certainly not worth dumping him if you found him ownable before the trade):
1. He was already batting ~6th-7th in a worse Angels lineup
2. He moves to a better park/lineup now
3. I don’t think Pedroia (essentially out for season) and Nunez/Holt will hold him back from a similar everyday role he had previously. Dombrowski said as much, stating he’ll be their everyday 2B
Lastly, his performance hasn’t been good most of the season, but he’s picked it up as of late (since 6/1: 210 PA, 259/319/466, 117 wRC+) and projection systems still think he’s a low-end 2B / solid MI option (~2B 10-13) in most leagues.
Agree on Pedroia probably not coming back, and Kinsler will probably keep the majority of the playing time because of his glove, but I’m kind of thinking he’s toast as a hitter. Statcast shows that his EV has dipped into the bottom 7% of the league and his hard hit% into the bottom 6%. His weak and topped ball numbers are up and his solid and barrel numbers are down.
His plate discipline and LD/GB/FB numbers aren’t that far off what they’ve been in the past, though his contact rate on balls out of the zone is up quite a bit this year. He just simply isn’t hitting the ball as hard as he used to. He’s 36, that’s kind of what you would expect.
The ballpark change obviously helps but as Jeff noted, he has zero chance of busting the top of the Sox lineup. At least in Anaheim he was probably going to get back to the top of the lineup if he started hitting even a little because they really don’t have anybody else to put up there.
Schoop going to pick up SS eligibility now right at the time hit bat is getting hot