Hot Starts for Voit & McKinney

In my chat last night, I felt I was not informed enough on a few players and I am going to examine a couple today, Luke Voit and Billy McKinney. Both are producing and playing regularly with their new teams. They could be a couple nice sleepers in deeper leagues over the season’s last month.

Luke Voit

I laughed when Yankees picked up Voit from the Cardinals at the trade deadline. I figured they’d make an impactful move, which wasn’t Voit. I’ve been wrong so far.

In his first 20 games with the Yankees, the 27-year-old first baseman started just four of them. In the last four, he’s started three going seven for 11 with three homers. On the season, he’s hitting .325/.400/.625 supported by a .444 BABIP.

Before getting too far along finding a value for Voit, a quick Greg Bird detour needs to be made. Simply, he has been horrible hitting just .199/.288/.390 on the season. The playoff-bound Yankees can’t expect to make it far in the playoff with a first baseman hitting like a catcher. I additionally checked to see if Bird was nursing an injury and nothing. It seems like Voit may have won the first base job. At least until reality sets in. While Gary Sanchez may return and play some first base, I will just assume Voit will have the full-time role until he doesn’t.

To start off with his evaluation, I’ll go with his Depth Chart rest-of-season projection of .258/.327/.445. I feel this projection should be close to his talent with over 1000 plate appearances in AA or higher over the past two seasons. Here are some other hitters with similar projections.

Name: AVG/OBP/SLG
Travis Shaw: .250/.328/.466
Kendrys Morales: .258/.326/.466
Max Kepler: .249/.326/.438
Ian Kinsler: .265/.325/.424

I know Morales is on a recent tear but most of these bats aren’t ownable 12-team or smaller leagues. Ian Kinsler was on the waiver wire in  my 15-team Tout Wars league this last week.

I’ll  dive into some the StatCast data for a little more insight. For plate discipline, I like to see if a hitter swings at pitches out of the strike zone and hits pitches in the zone. His 27.3% O-Swing would be the 52nd lowest of the 153 qualified hitters. His 76.3% Z-Contact% would rank 150 of 152 with only Teoscar Hernandez and Joey Gallo being lower. So far, he’s displaying below league average plate discipline.

The batted ball data is a little more encouraging. Here’s his ranking of the 527 hitters with at least 25 batted ball events this season.

Stat: Value, Rank (of 527)
Barrels per PA: 8.9%, 26th
Barrels per Ball in Play: 14.3%, 23rd
Average EV: 93.2 mph, 12th
Average Dist: 196 ft, 53rd

When he makes contact, he’s been able to drive the ball.

Overall, I just don’t see Voit as a must add. He’s projected to have a bat with some swing-and-miss and power. His ownership will jump from the recent home runs. It’s gone from 1% to 3% to 6% at CBS Sportsline over the past weeks. I could see this percentage increase several times if he continues to swing the hot bat. He may not and he’ll remain on the waiver wire.

Billy McKinney

I’m giving the Blue Jays credit, they are finding out who they have going forward by promoting and playing their prospects like McKinney. The 24-year-old outfielder was never highly valued with the prospect boys here at FanGraphs giving him a 40 overall grade with his Hit and Power grading out the highest.

The first key for McKinney will be playing time and the Blue Jays already have a crowded outfield. Since McKinney’s first start, here are the number of games started by the outfielders (eight games total).

Name: Games Started
McKinney: 7
Pillar: 7
Grichuk: 5
Hernandez: 5
Granderson: 3

Note: The Blue Jays informed Granderson that he will not start as much.

After reading around, it seems like McKinney will be starting most games so playing time won’t be an issue.

McKinney is red hot by hitting .370/.485/.778 supported with a .438 BABIP in 33 PA. Across all levels, he’s hit 19 home runs in just 360 PA (early season shoulder injury). The small sample production looks great but projections point to a different story.

Our depth charts project to him posting a .245/.310/.423 triple slash line. Not good. Here are several comps.

Name: AVG/OBP/SLG
Tyler Austin: .246/.311/.464
Mark Canha: .242/.312/.420
Jay Bruce: .239/ .309/.441

It’s not the best group of comps and most aren’t owned in 15-team or shallower leagues. Bringing down McKinney’s value is his sub-.250 AVG. It’s depressed some from a projected 23% K%. Also, he’s an extreme flyball hitter which will keep his AVG low.

With just a small sample, here his rankings in plate discipline among qualified hitters.

Stat: Rank
O-Swing: 22nd lowest of 153
Z-Contact: 79th highest of 153

His plate discipline is decent so far. And his batted ball data is quite a bit better.

Stat: Value, Rank (of 626)
Barrels per PA: 12.1%, 3rd
Barrels per Ball in Play: 21.1%, 2nd
Average EV: 91.8 mph, 33rd
Average Dist: 213 ft, 11th

In the small sample, he’s crushing it.

Overall, I’m passing also except in deeper leagues. Maybe it’s worth riding the hot hand. If an owner is desperate for home runs, they could take a chance on McKinney. He’s useless otherwise. Depending if his hot streak continues, he could shoot up draft boards next year.