Archive for Keeper Strategy

Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.

Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.

Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.

Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.

Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.

1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last week, I’ve participated in three drafts for similar 12-team keeper leagues. They all share the ability to keep as many players as you want at an escalating dollar cost. One of those leagues is FanGraphs Staff Two on ottoneu. This will be my fourth season with my fellow staffers. The others are my home league (11th season) and my college league (sixth seasons). In other words, these are long standing, fully mature leagues.

In ottoneu, player costs increase by $2 every year plus the results of an arbitration period. In short, other teams get $25 to allocate toward other rosters – maximum of $3, minimum $1 per team. For example, my $7 Charlie Blackmon garnered $5 of allocations for a total cost of $12 to keep. The other two leagues use a set of keeper rules I derived long ago. We use previous draft price + $7.

In time, I’ve slowly developed a strategy I call Stars and Scrubs and Keepers. It’s not so much a new technique as it is an explanation. Stars and Scrubs is a particularly potent approach in these leagues with uncapped keeper totals.

Read the rest of this entry »

In fantasy auction leagues, among shortstops, many in the top- and middle-tier are either extremely pricey, or risky, or both. There are important question marks about some of the players that should give owners pause before making hefty financial commitments: Can we trust less than a full season of data on Trea Turner and Aledmys Diaz? Are Brad Miller and Jonathan Villar really worth their hefty price tags? Is Troy Tulowitzki just OK now, and can he stay healthy? Is this the year Addison Russell breaks out offensively?

If you don’t want to spend a fortune on one of the very best shortstops, it may be worth considering some of the names at the bottom. Among those are two shortstops who quietly had breakout campaigns in 2016.

Elvis Andrus has had a very strange career. He burst onto the scene as a 20-year-old rookie in 2009, and helped the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants in 2010 and 2011. Andrus’ elite defense and contact skills earned him an 8-year, $120M contract with Texas in 2013, despite the fact that at the time of the signing Andrus had just an 87 wRC+ and .314 wOBA in his career. After he signed the contract, Andrus had just a 78 wRC+ and .292 wOBA from April 2013 through the end of the 2015 season.

However, in 2016, things changed in a big way. Andrus batted .302/.362/.439 with a 112 wRC+ and .344 wOBA. It was his first wRC+ above 97 and his first slugging percentage above .378. His .136 ISO was also a career high, easily surpassing his previous high mark of .099. The following tables help explain Andrus’ breakthrough season: Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday’s post about delinquency was supposed to be today’s post about too many keepers. But first, I have some business to finish from yesterday. As I mentioned, three owners failed to select their keepers, one had yet to pay, and one couldn’t make the draft. My one day extension was enough for two of the owners to make their keeper picks. That leaves the guy who hasn’t paid and can’t draft. So it’s time to replace him.

I’m accepting short applications for his spot. Must have qualifications include an ability to pay $40 via PayPal (not Venmo) by end of today, willingness to select keepers by the end of today, and availability for the auction draft on Monday, March 13 at 7pm ET. It won’t hurt your application if you’re an active, successful fantasy player. I will select the person with whom I want to play by early afternoon.

Update: Thank you for your applications. I will be in touch with the winner shortly.

Onto today’s business…

Read the rest of this entry »

Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

On occasion, I start to comment on a post and realize “hey, I could get paid for this.” That’s happening right now. Last Friday, Joe Douglas wrote about ottoneu owners keeping too many players. He breaks down some basic maths to show his work, concluding that, on average, teams keep five extra players. This includes generous allowances for inflation, one-year “rentals,” and prospects. A strong case could be made that we keep more than five extra players.

His point is pretty clear – we should keep fewer players. And he’s probably right. The endowment effect causes us to overvalue things we already own. It’s tough to stay objective when we’ve invested so much time and energy into acquiring some of these players.

There’s just one fly in the ointment – information asymmetry ensures that too many players should be kept. Especially since ottoneu allows for trading right up to the keep/cut deadline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year around the cut deadline, I took it upon myself to lead the charge that you’re keeping too many players on your ottoneu team. With the general premise that, despite our best efforts, leagues are heading into their annual auctions with less than optimal keeping habits.

This was not meant as some form of tell all. Certainly it’s reasonable to think that teams should keep some star prospects, or a slightly overpaid Mike Trout if they think they can trade him. However, with the keeper deadline a week and a half away, I want to take some time to update this study for completeness and also update some potential shortcomings.  Read the rest of this entry »

The ottoneu keeper/cut deadline is less than two weeks away, and the ottoneu communities (official and unofficial) are buzzing with discussions about the keep/cut line of specific players and general keeper strategy. I’ve noticed some confusion regarding the definitions and implications of surplus and inflation as it relates to keeper decisions, so I’m here to explain as best as I can.

Read the rest of this entry »

I have been playing in dynasty and keeper leagues as long as I have been playing fantasy baseball. There is something satisfying about being able to attempt to build long term contending teams and scour the wire for future talent. I also find that they stay the most active from the beginning to end of a season and in the off season. For a fantasy junkie like me, that is a fix I often need. However, there is a dark side to leagues like this…

*Cues the gloomy music* Read the rest of this entry »

As we close out 2016, we’re nearing that point in time where we look forward to what the future holds and then solidify commitments about changes we plan to make.  From a fantasy perspective, there are few things to look forward to more than the annual Ottoneu auction, so whether you’re anxiously anticipating your very first or are committed to improving upon your second or tenth, preparation is everything.  As in life, you rarely get the chance to make a second first impression, so recovering from a poor draft can be a challenge that plagues you all season long.  

I covered the mechanics (many of which have since been upgraded) of the Ottoneu auction last year here.  We’re still roughly one month from the keeper deadline (1/31), but today I want to offer some practical suggestions (especially for those new to the game) for how to begin preparing for your auction draft.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu for the first time in 2017, leagues are forming daily here and here.

Read the rest of this entry »