Too Many Keepers?

Yesterday’s post about delinquency was supposed to be today’s post about too many keepers. But first, I have some business to finish from yesterday. As I mentioned, three owners failed to select their keepers, one had yet to pay, and one couldn’t make the draft. My one day extension was enough for two of the owners to make their keeper picks. That leaves the guy who hasn’t paid and can’t draft. So it’s time to replace him.

I’m accepting short applications for his spot. Must have qualifications include an ability to pay $40 via PayPal (not Venmo) by end of today, willingness to select keepers by the end of today, and availability for the auction draft on Monday, March 13 at 7pm ET. It won’t hurt your application if you’re an active, successful fantasy player. I will select the person with whom I want to play by early afternoon.

Update: Thank you for your applications. I will be in touch with the winner shortly.

Onto today’s business…

A few notes about the league – this is relevant to any prospective owners and also for the upcoming keeper discussion. It’s 12-team 5×5 with OPS instead of AVG and standard two catcher deep rosters. Budgets are $310 and keepers cost previous draft price +$7. The follow chart contains my entire list of keeper choices – hitters on the left and pitchers on the right.

In a normal year, I would have agonized over players like Healy, Musgrove, Nova, Weaver, Shoemaker, and Cotton. They all have upside beyond their $8 cost (and sub-$1 downside too), but my roster was just too constrained to consider them. Here’s what I actually kept.

I probably overpaid for Hedges just so I could cross catchers off the list of needs. I do believe in his swing changes, although I worry about his power playing at Petco. Some might question my decision to keep Reyes too, but I’m “encouraged” by David Wright’s inability to throw.

Otherwise, these are all solid values. Unfortunately, few have star-level ceilings in 2017, and ya kinda need those to win a fantasy league. Instead, I have a bunch of $15 guys on $8 contracts. That’s why I couldn’t take more fliers on guys like Cotton – I need to dedicate my 10 remaining roster slots to solving problems.

I spent $148 on my offense. Ideally, I’ll have Peraza and Reyes filling super utility roles on my bench. That means drafting at least one outfielder and a utility slugger. First base is the only position I’m forced to address. This group should fill up the stat sheet, although home runs and OPS could probably use reinforcement. The reliance on rookies and sophomores is a tad disconcerting. I expect a volatile offense.

My pitchers cost $69. While I resisted prospects like Cotton and Weaver, I couldn’t stay away from the breakout potential of Paxton and Gausman. In both cases, I see a higher floor and a higher ceiling than the players I cut. I’m less confident about Taillon despite an impressive debut.

Overall, I spent $217 on keepers, leaving me with $93 for the draft. Since I already have most of my roster filled, I can adapt to the draft room rather than going in with a must-execute plan. There’s a wide range of options available to me.

As a reminder, keepers cost previous draft price +$7. That means all those $8 keepers were $1 draftees or waiver pickups. I probably want at least five of my picks to be of the $1 variety. I could choose to go for two elite players and eight $1 fliers. Perhaps a first baseman and a starter? However, that would leave me exposed at closer where I’m sitting on could-be-traded Colome.

If I budget for a second closer, that leaves me with the funds for one star and a couple core performers. That’s a better fit for my roster since I wanted to inject some power across first base, outfield, and utility.

Sometimes, the stars are too pricey in this league. In that case, I could try snagging multiple closers and a few core performers. I’d have fewer $1 players than I prefer, but it might wind up as the best distribution of resources.

Should the draft really fall off the rails, forcing me to accept a sub-optimal roster, I’m sitting on a pile of trade resources. Offering up a Benintendi or Bregman should go a long way towards resolving any disasters.