They’re Both the ‘Most Underrated’

Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta:

Who knew they were so similar? It was genuinely surprising to see that they weren’t born on the same date, let alone the same month, after discovering their uncanny offensive similarities (Peralta is four months Pollock’s senior). In the table above, the only real noticeable difference is power: Peralta has more of it, but Pollock makes up the difference with speed.*

Moving past their eerily similar numbers, pay attention to what those numbers are saying. Here we have two fine gentlemen — both on the right side of 30 — with career wOBA’s on the right side of .350. And neither has any significant recent poor performance to speak of (unlike McCutchen and Puig).

Instead, freak injuries derailed Peralta and Pollock in 2016. Pollock broke his elbow just days before the season opener. It was a devastating blow to the Diamondbacks who, perhaps foolishly, expected to compete. Peralta was hit by pitches in the wrist several times early in the season and had to miss about a month. He re-injured the same right wrist in August when he slammed it into an outfield wall. Peralta needed season-ending surgery after the wall incident to stabilize a tendon in his wrist.

Both Pollock’s and Peralta’s injuries were freakish in nature. As we approach the 2017 season, both players are reportedly in good health. Peralta says his wrist feels 100 percent. Pollock’s elbow has a similarly optimistic prognosis.

Jeff Sullivan recently intimated that Pollock is baseball’s most underrated player — again. Fittingly, as they have so much else in common, Dave Cameron dubbed Peralta the game’s most underrated player in 2015. Sullivan’s argument about Pollock is convincing, but it’s worth noting that defense is a big part of the argument. There’s little doubt that Pollock has the potential to be an offensive star, but elite defense is a meaningful part of his game. In fantasy baseball, however, defense (besides simply a player’s position) is irrelevant. From a fantasy perspective, Pollock and Peralta are outfielders, and that’s all that matters. As a baseball player, Pollock is probably better and more underrated than Peralta, but strictly from a fantasy perspective, Peralta may be the more underrated of the two.

Overrating and underrating aside, both Pollock and Peralta are players to target in fantasy auctions and drafts this preseason. As Sullivan notes in his article, Pollock is just one year (and very few plate appearances) removed from basically being Mookie Betts, who will auction for double the cost of Pollock. Peralta, meanwhile, whose career numbers mirror Pollock’s, will probably auction for about half of Pollock’s price tag.

They look nothing alike and they don’t share a common dominant hand. Those are about the only major differences between A.J. Pollock and David Peralta. In a nutshell, both were on their way to baseball stardom before freak injuries set them back in 2016. They’re healthy now. Their recent major injuries will scare away enough owners that there is substantial bargain potential for both. Buying may be somewhat risky, but the benefit could easily outweigh the cost if the price is right. Look for prices indicative of good-but-injured players, and jump at the opportunity to buy low.

It’s fitting that Pollock and Peralta, teammates who share so much in common, are now now primed to become fantasy bargains— together.

*Pollock has a distinct advantage in steals; if you’re in a league that counts steals, please advice. Additionally, the article fails to mention that Peralta has struggled mightily against left handed pitching in his career, and should probably be considered a platoon player until he proves he can handle southpaws.