As promised, here are the updates reports on some of my injury finding metrics.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
Like Monday, a really light on material today. Tomorrow, I promise to have a bunch of PAIN, SLOW, HURT and Zone% reports for consumption.
• Daniel Hudson is making some minor league rehab starts and is throwing his fastball around 93 mph.
His velocity has returned to pre-surgery levels. Arnsberg says Hudson has routinely pitched in the 93 mph range, even hitting 95 mph on consecutive pitches.
The velocity is close to his pre-TJS days. Stayed tuned to see if he can get back to his 2009 to 2010 production levels.
The MASH Report is little low on content today and the same will be true for Thursday. I will release a full PAIN and HURT reports on Friday when I get some extra time (kids are finally back in school).
• Gerrit Cole is expected to come off the DL on Wednesday.
• Yonder Alonso is done for the season, he is droppable in all redraft leagues.
• Justin Verlander is out collecting opinions on his sore shoulder. Dave Cameron and Eno Sarris both looked at Verlander’s velocity decline. Right now, I think Verlander is trying to find anyway to continue pitching this season. If he does continue to pitch, I would expect the same lower production from earlier in the season to continue.
• Manny Machado is on the DL with a sprained knee and he doesn’t expect to be back in just 15 days.
The O’s haven’t given a timetable for Machado’s return. He’ll be eligible to return from the DL on Aug. 27, but chuckled at the suggestion that he could return in two weeks. He says he’ll return when he’s able “to go out there and be Manny Machado.”
So in a couple of weeks, team rosters expand and all the players on the 40-man rosters can be added to the MLB club. Even if Machado isn’t Macado yet, he could be taken off the DL and pinch hit. Just remember, if he comes back September 1st, it doesn’t mean he is 100% ready to go.
• Good news on the production front from Gerrit Cole. In his last start he struck out three, walked none and allowed no runs. It seems like there are differing opinions on his velocity tough. Here is a tweet from his last start.
Gerrit Cole has another 1-2-3 inning in 3rd. His velocity was 91-92 consistently, and reached 93 and 94 on a few pitches.
— Brian Peloza (@BrianPeloza) August 10, 2014
While the team is reporting his velocity to be higher.
As for his velocity? His last pitch of the game was clocked at 95 miles per hour.
“I’m sure there was more in the tank,” Indianapolis manager Dean Treanor said. “That was a good sign.”
Cole’s velocity was consistently in the 95-96 mph range during the first few innings of his rehab start on Tuesday, but dipped to 91-92 mph during the late innings. The dip in velocity was labeled as intentional and ordered by the organization after Cole said he felt “brutal” following his first rehab outing.
“He wasn’t tied down to anything like that (on Sunday),” Treanor said. “What was good when he felt he needed some velocity, he was able to ramp it up a little bit and he had the OK to do that.”
Cole consistently reached 93-94 mph over the final three innings of Sunday’s outing, throwing 73 pitches, 49 for strikes. He was scheduled to throw either 90 pitches or six innings, whichever came first.
At least both were an improvement over his previous start.
Gerrit Cole’s velocity at the end of his rehab outing last night was 91-92 mph. Potential red flag there. #Pirates — Jason Shetler (@Jason_Shetler) August 6, 2014
His 2014 season average before the injury was 95, not a peak of 95 mph. He could be down one to three mph once he returns.
Read the rest of this entry »
• The Nationals are basically admitting Bryce Harper’s struggles are because his thumb is not yet healed.
He went on the disabled list for two months, and when he came back, he had a new injury that affected his swing. A separate, disquieting notion had taken root, a sense that he was trying to find something that he had lost. “It was like old Bryce right there,” hitting coach Rick Schu said after one batting practice session. “Good to see.”
Hand injuries are hell on hitters – Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both suffered power drains when they returned this season. Without full strength in his hand, Harper can make the same swing he always and receive different feedback. You can see why he spiked his helmet at first base after the flyout to the track last night, where the frustration comes from. For so long, the swing he put on that ball would be enough to drive it out of the park. With a left thumb three months removed surgery, it died at the track.
Harper keeps changing his stance and tweaking his swing, but what Harper’s looking for may not be discovered until his thumb strengthens. It is a physical issue that led to shaken confidence that led to mechanical issues.
“I would not discount the fact that he had an injury to his top hand,” Williams said on 106.7 The Fan. “If you don’t feel strong or if you feel something is wrong with your hand, that can affect you. Him coming back from an injury is not easy. If we have a little bit of patience, put in some good hard work, hopefully he gets hot here and he can carry us a little bit, too.”
It seems Harper is heading for a Carlos Gonzalez comp of “Great Talent, but Always Hurt”.
• I have had a couple people ask if Adam Wainwright is hurt. Going through some signs, he may just be.
First, he is in the window for needing a second Tommy John surgery after his one in 2011. Here is a description of when a second operation is needed from some of my previous work.
In the 2013 THT Annual, we found pitchers had about 650 innings between their first and second procedure, though the sample size was miniscule. Recently, I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.
Thanks to both of you for caring enough about injuries on the trade deadline day to read my article. Well, I here is the latest injury information. Now I need to get back to reading about potential trades.
• James Paxton is an interesting pitcher who should be coming off the DL soon, possibly on Saturday. Before going on the DL, he was putting up some good numbers: 30% K%, 5% BB%, 56% GB% in two starts. According to recent reports from his minor league rehab appearances, his velocity may be down ~2 mph from his early average of 94 mph.
Not much injury news over the weekend, sorry.
• A reader asked if Chris Davis may be injured. The short answer for those with little time, probably. Now here is the long answer.
The concern for Davis centers on his low .199 AVG and 17 home runs. He spent spent 15 days on the DL early in the season for a strained abdomen. No other reported news. Before the injury he hit .250/.372/.382. Since returning, he has mainly seen a huge drop in his AVG, .183/.288/.394. Looking through my injury indicators, his ISO is down from .240 career average to .192. His Contact% is down for 69% to 67%. These values put his HURT value at 155 which is one of the top values among the league regulars. So, yes his is probably still hurt.
The other issue he is dealing with is the shift. In 2013, he had a .425 BABIP with no shift on and a .302 with the shift employed for a difference of .123. So far this season, he is hitting .375 without the shift on and .236 with a shift for a difference of .141. The shift related decline was almost the same overall for each season. This season he is not hitting the ball as hard (probably from the injury), so both BABIP values are down. I would look at Davis as a possible buy low candidate for next season, but expect the batting average to stay low.
• In keeper leagues, it is time for the top teams to stabilize their teams with healthy players. This is an opportunity for teams buy low on know health risks. Take Jason Kipnis for example. he has been limited by an oblique injury all year. If a top team has him and you have healthy Ian Kinsler, look to trade for Kipnis. Most owners will do about anything for a win and will take the stability for this season and you get an upgrade for next season. Another player to target is Shin-Soo Choo who has had a bad ankle. Additionally, look over the HURT lists below for more injured players.