MASH Report (8/25/14)
• Jeff Passen looks at the playoff contenders and how the health of their pitching staffs have helped with their 2014 playoff runs.
Of the top 10 in each category, opening-day-rotation starts have more playoff teams than starters’ ERA or team ERA. Seven of the teams with most starts from opening day rotations would make the playoffs if the season ended today, whereas only six of the top 10 in starters’ ERA and team ERA would get to the postseason. And the three non-playoff teams on the healthy list include Detroit (one game back of the second AL wild card), Atlanta (one game behind for the second NL wild card) and Cincinnati (every theory needs an outlier).
• Edwin Jackson is headed to the DL with a lat strain.
It’s been a struggle this season for the right-hander, who gave up seven runs over 2 2/3 innings on Wednesday against the Giants to fall to 6-14 with a 6.09 ERA. Jackson led the National League in losses last year, and he was on pace to do so again.
“It’s been the last few starts and something I’ve tried to work through,” Jackson said Thursday. “I figured it was in the best interest of myself, and the team as well, to try not to fight through it any more before something major happens. It’s one of those things that you try to work through, and it didn’t work out for me.”
Sounds like phantom DL stint. His velocity and Zone% were down, but they were similar to earlier season values.
I expect some time in Arizona working things out with little recovery time.
• I have zero trust is Justin Verlander being his old self right now. Here is his pitch speeds in his first game back from a skipping a start.
For three innings he was able to keep his fastball near 94 to 95 mph. Then it dropped like a rock to around 91 mph for a couple of innings before bouncing back at the end around 93 mph. I expect him to continue to pitch through this shoulder discomfort since the Tigers are in the playoff hunt.
Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL
• Andrew Cashner’s average fastball velocity was at a 2014 low. It would be nice to see it move upward for the rest of the season.
• Jacob deGrom’s velocity is up.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Major League Report
Minor League Report
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Any indicators show anything about Zack Greinke’s tender elbow? They pushed his start back 2 days but velocity seems generally fine.
All looked pretty good, his velocity has been climbing steadily. My only issue was the 40% Zone% in his last game. I would be nice to see him throw more strikes.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P&type=16&gds=&gde=&season=2014
Considering Cashner’s low velocity along with the fact he really hasn’t helped a ton in the K’s, would you consider moving on from him? My trade deadline has passed, but a number of decent starter’s are still available on my waiver wire including Bartolo Colon, Mike Fiers or Chris Tillman?
Jeff, thanks for your help all year!
Any educated guess on the approximate number of days from the time he starts throwing until his first start in MLB for Bailey? Make the assumption that the Reds actually want him to start before year end.
Trying to decide whether to stash Bailey or Wacha for the playoff championship (week of 9/15). If you didn’t need this pitcher until 9/15 would you drop Shoemaker for either of them?
I wouldn’t drop Shoemaker for either, he is going to get his starts every 5 days with Richards out. The Angels being in race helps his value here at the end of the season.
I like the idea of Wacha because the Cards will try to get him back to see what he has, which may not be good.
For Bailey, I would give him 3 weeks at least to pitch in the majors after he begins throwing a ball. He hasn’t picked one up since going on the DL three weeks ago.
The three weeks is based on:
1 week of soft to long toss
1 week of bullpen and live batters
1 week on MiLB/Training Camp (MiLB is about over) games.
He has just missed too much time.
Thanks AGAIN for the quick and complete reply.
In the same vein…if Votto starts baseball activities today, how soon would he be back (again, assuming the Reds aren’t folding up the tent)?