MASH Report (8/4/14)

• I have had a couple people ask if Adam Wainwright is hurt. Going through some signs, he may just be.

First, he is in the window for needing a second Tommy John surgery after his one in 2011. Here is a description of when a second operation is needed from some of my previous work.

In the 2013 THT Annual, we found pitchers had about 650 innings between their first and second procedure, though the sample size was miniscule. Recently, I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.

Wainwright is at 3 years and 530 IP. Next season looks likes he may be in the sweet spot for another operation if he needs one.

Additionally, his fastball velocity is down .9 mph from 2013.

His Zone% has been trending down the few weeks.

It may be time to trade high with Wainwright. Maybe straight up for King Felix?

Stuart Wallace at Beyond The Box Score goes into detail on Michael Wacha’s stress injury and how his release point may be the cause.

Longer term, if McCarthy is any indication, Wacha’s future remains less concrete, as the possibility of a flare-up or a full-blown fracture sustained still looms large. Even with a worst case scenario, a recurrence of the injury still lends itself to be one that will allow Wacha to be productive, albeit in spurts. Whether Wacha nips the scapular issues in the bud for good remains to be seen; the impact of his pitching mechanics and his adherence to them, despite their potential for incurring shoulder issues, remain in question.

Wacha’s 2014 value could be all over the place. I am guessing someone else will over value Wacha compared to how I value him.

• The reasons to own Corey Hart are slim and none. His knees have never been right all season.

Hart has had to play the outfield more since the Mariners traded for designated hitter Kendrys Morales on July 24, and he says that extra time exposed the lingering issue of knees that underwent a pair of microfracture surgeries that forced him to miss all of last year with the Brewers.

“It’s nice to be back and part of a competitive team, and I love the group,” Hart said. “But I think I was trying to give myself false hope. The legs were never there. Hopefully, they get back sooner than later. I’d love to come back pretty quick and be competitive, but right now, I’m not competitive and that’s because I haven’t had the legs to help me. Hopefully, these guys get it fixed pretty quick.”
…….
“I woke up feeling pretty bad, but I still wanted to play,” Hart said. “It’s been going on for a little bit. My legs, when I play the field, the next day is really rough. I kept trying to fight it, but it got to the point where I was tired of hitting balls and they weren’t going anywhere because I don’t have legs. That just kind of put it over the top. I probably shouldn’t have played yesterday, but I was still trying to find it.”

I think he is droppable in all formats. His 2015 draft value could even be less than his 2014 draft value. He’s going to unproductive

• Phanton DL Move Alert: Felix Doubront with a calf sprain.  No mention of injury before or after the trade. Just talk of fixing him.

“Sometimes guys need a change of scenery,” Hoyer said. “He’s been pitching in the American League East. He’s had moments when he’s pitched real well. Obviously, he’s been struggling, that’s no secret to us.

“Sometimes you get a guy, a change of scenery, different coaches, different ballpark, different league, you hope that clicks together,” Hoyer said. “He’s got good stuff and has potential, and hopefully we can bring out the best in him.”
There’s no timetable for when Doubront will join the Cubs.

“Once he gets healthy and is able to rehab and we can stretch him back out, we’ll see how the rest of the year works,” Hoyer said.

Well, they do mention “healthy” which to me means “doesn’t throw like crap”. This move gives the Cubs a chance to work with him on some issues and when they are done he will be “healthy”.

Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL

James Paxton’s average fastball velocity looks fine. Additionally, he had a > 50% GB% in his one start since coming off the DL. Nice buy low candidate especially with his post return game results not being the best (2 Runs in only 4 IP).

Jason Vargas’s velocity is fine.

C.J. Wilson’s velocity is at a 3 year low, I would stay away for now.

Justin Masterson’s sinker is comparable to his previous 2014 levels.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor league





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jim

How has G.Cole looked in his rehab/ bullpens? Is there any reason to be concerned? What should we expect for the ROS?