Archive for Injuries

• I am going to dissect the DL data since 2002 in any possible way. I already plan on examining team trends, position trends and how certain injuries affect production. Is there anything else you would like look at while I am going over the information?

• At MLB TradeRumors, I examined if the amount of career pitches makes a difference on a pitcher’s health and came to the following conclusion.

Boras continues to mention Scherzer’s pitching odometer as an advantage over Lester and Shields. However, the number of pitches thrown is not indicative of future injury. A high number shows the pitcher can hold up to the grind of being able to successfully throw for full seasons. The main issue between the three pitchers is age. Scherzer is four years younger than Shields. Scherzer’s body may still be able to hold up a bit better than the other pair, but they are still some of the healthiest pitchers in the league. The debate about the trio’s durability should begin and end with age.

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• Robinson Cano broke his toe playing in Japan. Here is the latest news on his situation.

Cano also said he was encouraged by the fact that he woke up Sunday feeling better than expected. MLB doctors examined him late Sunday night, determining that he should be able to resume regular offseason workouts in mid-December. Cano expects to be back to normal well in advance of Spring Training.

“I thought it was going to be worse today, but just a little pain,” he said. “It’s just something that’s bothering me. Hopefully I’ll recover in four weeks and nothing else happens.”

The key to see if he is healthy in spring training monitor his ability to run … well run as good as he could previously.

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• I have one must read and it was just published a couple of hours ago by Sam Fuld on dealing with a brain damage concussions.

Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are similar to other injuries in that they require time and rest in order to improve. That lost time is why most athletes drive ourselves crazy when deciding whether or not to keep our injuries quiet. What happens if we miss some action and our replacement from Triple-A plays great? What about the dreaded label of being “injury prone?!?!” Whether you’re an All-Star, a fringe major leaguer or a young minor leaguer, nobody wants an organization to think you’re an injury risk.

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Paul Goldschmidt was having a great season until he got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in August. He was hitting home runs, had an .300 AVG and was still getting some steals (nine). It was just another All-Star caliber season until the broke wrist ended his season.

The main issue with him going into 2015  will be if his wrist is still bothering him. To see how player’s performed after wrist issues, I looked at hitter production the season before, of, and after a similar wrist injury.

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• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

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• OK, I got the data finally cleaned up. I have quite a few players added who look to be back for 2015, but I will keep them on until some resolution is complete. For example, John Hamilton is messed up. I will keep him on there to track him until he is playing 100%. Basically, I would rather have a potentially healthy player on the list than miss someone who may be hurt.

• Quite a few players state they will be ready for spring training which is vague. For any player giving spring training as a return time, I set their date to February in the spreadsheet.

• Adam Wainwright’s elbow is acting up as gets near the point when pitchers have their second Tommy John surgery. He came back pitching in 2012. Since then he has thrown three full seasons (582 IP) and nine post season games (54 IP). He is at the sweet spot for when pitchers need their 2nd TJS as I state in this Hardball Times article:

I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.

The seasons are bit on the low side, but he is at 636 innings. No matter how the post season goes for him, I will not be paying top dollar for him next season

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Matt Wieters was having a great season in 2014 until early May when his elbow began barking. Eventually his season was lost and he needed Tommy John surgery. Owners may not want to own a hitter coming off such an injury, especially a catcher. So looking forward to 2015, I will lay out a couple points on how to evaluate Wieters as a huge buy low candidate.

So for a timeline of Wieters last season.

April – Everything is fine and Wieters is hitting: .333/.381/.544 in 74 PA

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• For the offseason, I am going to track every player who had or plans on having off-season surgery. I will remove them once they are at 100% in spring training. For some of the injured players in the post season, like Josh Hamilton and Rajai Davis, more information will become available as the postseason goes on or once it is over. Additionally, I am working through all the 2014 injured players individually to see if I need to track them in the offseason. Right now, I have two lists. One of players I have gone through (short) and one I have not examined (long). I should be done next week and have just one list.

• Must See: The Dallas Morning News created a couple of great graphics showing how much time and money was lost to the disabled list this season with a focus on the Rangers. I will go through and run my own values later, but a nice peek at how teams performed health wise in 2014.

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• Ryan Zimmerman returned from the DL and went 2-3 in his first game back. He is far from being 100%. He can barely run jog walk right now. Kirk Gibson’s 1988 home trot is what Zimmerman’s triple reminded me of. I have no clue why he is not resting and waiting for the post-season to force himself into the lineup.

• Stuart Wallace at the Beyond The Box Score gives us his take on Glen Perkins’s elbow.

Overall, Perkins should be ready to go for next season; with the clean bill of health in terms of the UCL, fears that a Tommy John procedure is inevitable should be allayed, even with the knowledge that 40% of baseball players presenting with UCL injuries demonstrate symptoms consistent with ulnar neuritis.

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• I am putting about 90% of my effort into the unofficial DL (list below). Remember to click the date for the most up-to-date article on the injury. Next Monday’s list will probably be the last one on this season and then I will wrap up this season and look towards next season. If you have any questions on a specific player, hit me up on twitter (@jeffwzimmerman).

• Masahiro Tanaka is scheduled to start Sunday for the Yankees. Ignore him at this point. We have no way to determine how he will perform after having his UCL partially torn.

• I will state this a thousand times, stay away from hitters with back issues. The issue never seems to go away. Angel Pagan is again missing time for his back.

• Matt Shoemaker could be done for the regular season. What I see happening is he throws once before the postseason to see how he feels. I would not expect much more from him.

• John Lackey and Michael Wacha will throw for the Cardinals this weekend after missing time with injuries. I don’t trust Wacha because the start seems like it will be a testing to see if he can pitch in the postseason.

• Danny Duffy is expected to pitch Monday after missing a couple starts. I don’t like how his recovery has hit some bumps. I would stay away.
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