When Alex Wood reached an agreement with the Dodgers on a one-year, $4 million contract on Sunday, it didn’t quite get the attention of, say, Gerrit Cole’s megadeal with the Yankees. The Dodgers are bringing the 29-year-old lefty back after a one-year hiatus in Cincinnati to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, so it shouldn’t have been a headline-grabbing move. Yet it has only been three years since Wood was one of the biggest stories in fantasy, ranking as a top 10 starting pitcher despite totaling 152.1 innings. After having missed much of 2016 with an elbow impingement, Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 24.6 percent strikeout rate.

If 2019 hadn’t happened, this would have been a much more celebrated move, but as it turns out, 2019 did happen. Wood developed back issues in spring training, and he did not make his debut with the Reds until July 28. He started off decently enough, allowing two runs in each of his first two starts, but then he went on to roll off a string of four starts that produced 18 runs (16 earned) in 18.1 innings. He rebounded with a quality start against the Marlins, though all three runs he allowed were solo homers, giving him a total of 11 allowed in 35.2 innings. After that start, Wood’s back stiffened up again, and he would not take another turn in the Reds’ rotation. He finished with only one win and a 5.80 ERA.
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Edwin Encarnación had been overshadowed by bigger-name free agents throughout the Hot Stove season, but he had the Christmas Day headlines all to himself. That’s when reports emerged of the 36-year-old slugger reaching an agreement with the White Sox on a one-year, $12 million contract with a 2021 team option. There had not been much buzz over the market for Encarnación, possibly because he will turn 37 in January and his main appeal is as a designated hitter. Perhaps he also received less attention because of missing the vast majority of the final two months of the 2019 season due to a fractured right wrist and a strained left oblique.

Despite missing a substantial chunk of the season, Encarnación smashed 34 home runs. This was two more than he hit for the Indians in 2018, and his .287 ISO was his highest ever. Encarnación wasn’t hitting the ball harder — his 94.4 mph exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) was within 0.2 mph of his averages from 2017 and 2018 — but he was hitting it a lot higher. His 22.5 degree average launch angle was more than four degrees higher than any of his previous averages during the Statcast era, and his 50.6 percent flyball rate was a career high.
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Tigers sign Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to 1-year, $6.1 million dollar deals

In the span of about a half hour, the Detroit Tigers had a whole new right side of their infield by signing both Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to identical $6.1 million dollar deals. Schoop rebounded from a rough 2018, jumping from 79 to 100 wRC+. His ISO reached a career high of .217, but his strikeout rate was back up to 25%, matching his previous career high.

Despite solid production, Schoop started losing playing time to rookie upstart Luis Arraez in the final two months of the season. Schoop won’t have the same issue in Detroit. He should be free and clear for full-time run at second base and get back to 600+ PA for the first time since 2017. The projections feel dead on, putting him at .262/.306/.476 with 27 HR, 81 RBI, and 70 R in 571 PA.

Schoop’s 398 ADP might rise a bit now that he’s landed, but it won’t surge given the team he’s on. If you need some late pop at your MI slot, Schoop is your guy.

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I going to examine how both Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s and Dallas Keuchel’s fantasy value changed since both signed over the last few days.

Hyun-Jin Ryu signs with the Toronto Blue Jays

Ryu finally pieced together a great season by staying healthy and throwing more innings (182) than any time since 2013 (192). While his strikeout rate was acceptable (23%), he dominated (2.32 ERA) by walking almost no one (3%) and in the juiced ball era, he limited home runs (0.8 HR/9) with a surge in groundball rate (50%).

I hate this move for Ryu’s value with every aspect being a downgrade from the Dodgers. He moves to the AL where he’ll face a DH more often. He goes to the hyper-competitive AL East. He transitions from a pitcher’s park to one that is neutral overall but gives up more home runs than average. Finally, he goes from a nearly average defense to one in the bottom third.

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My first reaction to Maikel Franco agreeing to sign a one-year, $2.95 million deal with the Royals was one of slight disappointment. After four years of being roughly league-average or worse, I did not have high expectations for Franco going into 2020, but in leaving one of the majors’ best home run parks for right-handed hitters for one of the worst, my expectations got even lower.

Then in looking over Franco’s stats as a Phillie, something occurred to me. He has an incredibly similar profile to another third baseman who has been a much better home run hitter than Franco has been in recent years. While Franco has averaged 22.5 at-bats for every home run going back to 2016, this other third baseman has needed only 16.3 at-bats per homer over the same period. Here is how these two third basemen have stacked up for each of the last four seasons.

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Most times it’s easier to get an idea of how a veteran pitcher will perform because of years of examinable data. With Gio Gonzalez and Julio Teheran, they have tons of data and each has beat their ERA estimators for years with no obvious reason why. They’ve beaten luck for years. Both are free with Teheran going with an average draft pick of 352 and Gonzalez with pick 632, so cost isn’t an issue. So is either one worth a roster spot at no cost?

Gio Gonzalez signed by Chicago White Sox

Gonzalez posted a reasonable 3.50 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in 87 innings of work with the Brewers. He’s been able to walk the fine line walking too many hitters (3.8 BB/9 in 2019 and his career) yet limiting hard contact (0.9 HR/9 and .277 BABIP for 2019, 0.8 and .293 BABIP for his career). While he used to generate a decent number of groundballs (54% in 2015), he’s no longer on either end of the batted ball spectrum. His pitches have some batted ball split with the change and curve over 50% GB% and four-seamer at 26% GB%. The combination is nothing special to explain the difference.
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Don’t feel bad if you didn’t have Wade Miley anywhere near your mixed league radar this season. Excluding his half season 2018 in which he posted a sub-3.00 ERA, his ERA had risen in literally every season since his first full year back in 2012. That ERA ultimately reached a high water mark of 5.61. In Houston, he posted decent results that gave him streamer appeal in shallower leagues and earned positive value in AL-Only leagues. Now having signed with the Reds, he returns to the National League. Will the move to a new park help him remain on mixed league radars? Let’s consult the park factors.

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On Monday, Avisaíl García signed a two-year deal with the Brewers, very clearly pushing Ryan Braun to everyday first base duties. Garcia hasn’t often been an exciting fantasy asset, but he is coming off a career best 20 homers and 10 steals, with a helpful batting average. Now he moves to the National League for the first time. Let’s see how the park switch might affect his performance.

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On Sunday, it was reported that the Diamondbacks had signed long-time Giant Madison Bumgarner. The pitcher that had never posted an ERA exceeding 3.37 heading into the season ended up suffering the worst results of his career, posting a 3.90 mark, even as his strikeout and walk rates rebounded to pre-2018 levels. Now he departs one of baseball’s most pitcher friendly venues. How much will the park switch affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

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• Kyle Gibson spent most of last reason dealing with several long-term illnesses.

Then came E. coli and ulcerative colitis.

“In Spring Training we found the right medication,” Gibson said. “I was feeling strong when the season started. Then, I think whether it was the stress to the season or my diet changes, eating on the road and stuff, about mid-May, it started getting worse and the symptoms started creeping back in.

“The hardest part was just before the All-Star break. I wasn’t sleeping well. I was getting up with a bloated stomach and gas and having to go to the bathroom five or six times a night. Right at the beginning of September, I told our trainers I can’t do this anymore.”

Gibson spent 10 days on the injured list. He was on the Twins postseason roster against the Yankees, but was not given a starting assignment. He reached out to others for help. He spoke with Jake Diekman, the former Rangers reliever who spent much of his adult life dealing with ulcerative colitis until finally having multiple surgeries in 2017.

Gibson is a nice upside play with the health issues taken care of.
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