Keuchel & Ryu Look to Disappoint
I going to examine how both Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s and Dallas Keuchel’s fantasy value changed since both signed over the last few days.
Hyun-Jin Ryu signs with the Toronto Blue Jays
Ryu finally pieced together a great season by staying healthy and throwing more innings (182) than any time since 2013 (192). While his strikeout rate was acceptable (23%), he dominated (2.32 ERA) by walking almost no one (3%) and in the juiced ball era, he limited home runs (0.8 HR/9) with a surge in groundball rate (50%).
I hate this move for Ryu’s value with every aspect being a downgrade from the Dodgers. He moves to the AL where he’ll face a DH more often. He goes to the hyper-competitive AL East. He transitions from a pitcher’s park to one that is neutral overall but gives up more home runs than average. Finally, he goes from a nearly average defense to one in the bottom third.
It’s tough to get a handle on how everything will play out with likely regression from both talent and playing time. And then the outside factors are added in. With everything pushing his talent down, it’s not a matter of being worse, but how much.
In my pre-trade rankings/projections, he came in as the 38th pitcher. In the NFBC, he’s going on average with pick 112 as the 37th pitcher (including relievers). With the move, I’d not be surprised to see him drop to being around the 50th pitcher taken. With so many negative factors in play, it’d be a fool’s errand to try to guess each one’s effect. Just give the projection systems a few days to catch up on the move and see how they change. Owners need to anchor all new values off of the new projections.
On the bright side, at least he didn’t sign with Baltimore.
Dallas Keuchel signs with the Chicago White Sox
Simply, I haven’t been Keuchel fan for a few seasons so if someone is hoping for a sunshine-and-rainbows post look elsewhere. Keuchel is a 31-year-old lefty with an 88 mph fastball. Let those facts sink in. Among all starters, his strikeout (19%) and walk rate (8%) are worse than the league average. What’s to be excited over? He continues to rely on his elite groundball rate (60% last season) for easy outs, double plays, and fewer than average home runs. The formula continued to work last season except he was hit with a 1.3 HR/9 last season.
I’m not worried about the new team and the park at all. He’s dominated in an AL hitter’s park while with Houston. I just don’t think he’s got any upside, especially with a career-low fastball (88 mph) velocity with an extra few months of rest. While his sinking action ensures few balls are in the strike zone, this fastball season was just the second time his Zone% dropped under 40%. Finally, his career-high 80% LOB% is going to regress some (74% for his career).
It seems more people have soured on Keuchel than I thought with a 283 ADP which is after than fellow sinkerballer, Dakota Hudson (277 ADP). My projections have him as the 102nd overall pitcher based off being a volume play, not an upside play. Overall, he’s a tough player to draft since he has no upside and the downside could be Rick Porcello’s 2019 season. I’m going to need a steep discount to buy-in.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
What about the idea that Keuchel is going to get an unbalanced number of starts vs *potentially* bad KC and DET lineups and a CLE lineup that the FO seems to want to dismantle?
streaming material unless its a deep league
If by deep you mean 12+ teams, then yeah. I think Keuchel showed enough to roll him out there pretty much every time, as it’s not like the MLB is full of starters that have shown solid success in the past. He may not be flashy and young, but consistent veteran ability is often underrated in fantasy sports.
From a fantasy perspective I completely understand having no interest in Keuchel. No Ks and a reasonably high WHIP. The Sox project to be around 500 now I think so while he could win some games, there is no reason to think he will be elite there. I’ve never been a fan either but people on other articles have him reduced to a replacement level starter. Seems a bit much.
Also Grandal helps anyone
The gap between home run factors at fangraphs park factor of Dodger and Rogers park is not so big.
Dodgers 101
Rogers 102
And Dodgers had bad infielding last season. Ryu’s xFIP is also only 3.30, the 8th of the mlb league. His GB rate is about 50% but his GB/FB is 2 because he allowed more low LBs rather than high flyers. Ryu allowed 5 HRs in 2 games in August when he was at worst, and 3 HRs in Coors among 17 allowed. I would guess he won’t allow much more HRs than in LA
The East AL has more elite RHH and Ryu didn’t have fun to pitch against BOS, NYY at small sample. Well, we’ll see.
Well, look at this way, maybe Ryu becomes the new Orioles’ killer.
I going? Really?
I do reasonably well in the NFBC and I agree with Jeff’s article here. Keuchel will not help you. As a matter of fact he will hurt you. Those arguing that he is still decent are just grasping at straws. I would take numerous middle relievers before I would take Keuchel. His strikeout rate is poor, he is getting on in age, His predicted ERA and ratio are poor. And he was lousy last year. His FIP was horrible. Just wait and see. All arrows point down. As for Ryu, the Blue Jays had to overpay to get him. Not many good pitchers want to pitch for the Jays. He is indeed a good pitcher, but his injury history is very concerning. And his age. I would still draft him, but lower than most. Keuchel I would never draft period. Good article Jeff.
Seems to me that Keuchel is a solid addition for the Sox irl but not for fantasy purposes. I’ll be using him to stream early on but I think he is gonna be an integral piece for the sox as they move back to contention.
I don’t see how the AL east is hyper competitive, the Orioles are historically bad, the jays seem to be making a half ass to compete and probably will be bad again, and the red Sox are crying poor and actively looking to make their mlb roster worse. Sorry but when more than half the teams in the division are mediocre at best and more horrific than not, it’s not competitive
The Red Sox & Yankees were both top 3 in runs scored per game last year and the Rays aren’t exactly a slouch, being better than average in a good number of offensive categories.
Trent Thorton (!) made the most starts for the Blue Jays last year (29) and 13 of those came against NYY, BOS, & TBR. Go nuts if you see that as a desirable slate, I’m sure Ryu can be had anywhere you want him.
Also, Ryu can’t get starts against the Blue Jays if he’s pitching for them