WOW!!! Who had Hader getting dealt?? Put your hand down, no you didn’t. Nobody did!! This stunner feels particularly crazy because Milwaukee sits with a 3-game lead in the Central right now, but when we dig in deeper, you that both lefty relievers are coming off horrendous Julys and while Hader is the much more dominant arm (42% to 28% K rate), they haven’t been that different on the whole this year.
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks.
Covered in this article: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, Pederson
The rich get richer on both ends here. The Dodgers get a superstar 1B to install into their studly lineup and Freeman goes from a good lineup to a great one. The park move is a slight dip overall, going from 103 to 99, but Dodger Stadium does inflate lefty homers with a 124 Park Factor (101 in Atlanta). Freeman somehow only has two 100+ RBI seasons in his career, but #3 could be on the horizon with those loaded squad, though I was surprised to learn that the Dodgers have just one 100+ RBI season in the last five full seasons (Cody Bellinger, 2019).
Bottom line: Superstar player joins superstar team to continue superstar career, perhaps even a higher superstar level (a 40-HR season incoming?).
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I’ll be covering the impact of the most fantasy-relevant moves in the lead up to Opening Day.
Covered in this article: Chapman, Schwarber, Suzuki, Rizzo, Rosario, Fraley, Velasquez
Chapman played all of 2021, but it is hard to believe he was fully healthy given the output. His 101 wRC+ was the lowest of his career as his strikeout surged from 2020 carried over with a 33% rate. We saw it jump to 36% in 2020, but with it being just 37 games, there was some hope that he would get back toward his 24% rate from 2017-19. Without confirmation from Chapman, this is pure speculation, but I wonder if the hip was in a state where it didn’t impact his defense (17 Outs Above Average ranked 4th in MLB) but kept him from getting to high heat.
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I will posting these regularly until the season starts.
Covered in this article: Cruz, Olson, Winker, Suárez, Williamson, and Dunn
Was his time with the Rays a BABIP-fueled blip (96 wRC+, .252 BABIP) or the start of legitimate decline? He also struck out in 27% of his 238 PA after being traded over. Maybe he hated the Trop, too, because that’s where he really struggled, posting just a .603 OPS in 101 PA. Even a Cruz who is more his 2021 line (122 wRC+) than the guy who put up a 164 in 735 PA from 2019-20 is totally fine. The top half of that Nationals lineup is coming together with Lane Thomas, César Hernández, Juan Soto, Cruz, and Josh Bell giving them a strong top five while Keibert Ruiz could give it a bit more length in the 6-spot. His bat plays everywhere, and Nationals Park is a bit of an unheralded offensive gem, giving righties a 103 Park Factor (5th in MLB) over the last three seasons. At age-41, it is worth planning for fewer plate appearances, but anywhere north of 450 should be enough to be an impact bat.
Bottom line: Premium slugger aging gracefully at age-41 and all of sudden this Washington lineup isn’t so bad, either.
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. Even as I was writing this, several other moves happened including the big Matt Olson deal or Nelson Cruz inking with Washington. Don’t worry, I’ll have another piece out covering that move and others soon! But first, let’s catch up with the weekend moves.
Covered in this article: Rodón, Kershaw, Bassitt, S.Gray, Garver, IKF, Donaldson, G.Sánchez, Urshela, Colomé, Kikuchi, Simmons
Rodón is coming off a breakout season as he stayed healthy and posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 132.7 IP. Some saw the White Sox not giving him a qualifying offer ($18.4 mil) as an indication of his health – or lack thereof – but the Giants are giving him $44 million dollars over the next two seasons which likely assuages some of those health-related fears. It doesn’t mean he will automatically stay healthy but seeing a team like the Giants that has done well with reclamation projects ponying up for Rodón is encouraging.
Over a month after the announcement, we’re finally getting around to covering the fantasy impact of Javier Baez’s signing with the Detroit Tigers. If you have forgotten, Baez signed a six-year, $140 million deal with the team on Dec 1, the same day a flurry of signings were announced before we went into lockout mode. Let’s now consult the park factors to see how the change in home venue might affect Baez’s results.
The focus of this article isn’t to list all the moves. Instead, I’m going to focus on the moves where I think fantasy values changed the most. Also, I dived into a few muddled situations.
There has been quite a bit of discussion on how bad the Rangers lineup was last season. They ranked 24th in hitter WAR (only team WAR projections are available), but are projected for the 12th highest total as of now.
I’m not shying away from this offense that rates to be better than the Red Sox and Braves. Since the offense will be respectable, there is no worry for Seager or Semien seeing a major drop-off (possibly some with home run regression but EVERY OTHER ANALYST has covered this angle). Read the rest of this entry »
The trade deadline has now passed and not surprisingly, there was a ton of movement and new opportunities for players to take on full-time roles have arisen. All but one of these players now finding themselves with regular playing time is a result of deadline deals, with the the other being the beneficiary of an injury to the incumbent.
Berríos was one of the hottest starting pitchers on the trade market. He’s been having a career season with a 3.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9. The ERA and WHIP are career bests because of a .261 BABIP (.289 career BABIP). I could not find anything new in his batted ball profile to support a lower BABIP, so I expect some upward regression. Read the rest of this entry »
