The hot stove is in full swing! Yesterday, fantasy superstar Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Finally, Philadelphians will learn whether Turner prefers Geno’s Steaks, or its competitor across the street, Pat’s King of Steaks. I took a weekend trip to Philly last year and tried neither, but did highly enjoy a version from Woodrow’s sandwich shop that was topped with truffle whiz. If you’re a fan of truffles (not the chocolates!), this is the pick. So now Turner joins his third team and a new home ballpark. Let’s consult the park factors to find out how his performance might be affected.
On Friday, Jacob deGrom signed a five year, lots of money contract with the Texas Rangers, where the smell of smoked meat wafts through the air. Let’s compare the park factors of his previous New York home, Citi Field, with his new Arlington home, Globe Life Field and find out how his performance might be affected, if all else was equal (which it never is). Since we don’t need to worry about the DH only existing in the AL anymore, it makes for a much easier comparison than in years past.
The trade of Brandon Marsh and continued struggles of Jo Adell (77 wRC+ in ’22; 68 career) left the Angels with a corner outfield opening. Renfroe is a 31-year-old power hitter who will join his 5th team in as many seasons (SD, TB, BOS, MIL) and has been an above average hitter in three of the last four seasons, averaging 35 HR per 600 PA with a 110 wRC+. The park move is slightly a bonus for Renfroe. Angel Stadium and American Family Field have the same HR factor for righties at 112 while Angel Stadium is three points clear of AFF in overall park factor at 103. He does lose a bit across the division mainly due to the Cincinnati-for-Oakland trade while the HOU-SEA-TEX and CHC-STL-PIT trios essentially offset one another, but the shift to a balanced schedule this year mitigates that difference a bit.
Holy guacamole, what a blockbuster! On Tuesday, the Padres acquired superstar Juan Soto to bolster a middling offense that has been without Fernando Tatis Jr. all season. Let’s consult the park factors to find out how the park switch may affect Soto’s performance.
On Monday, Tommy Pham was traded to the Red Sox as the Reds continue to dismantle and build for the future. The 34-year-old has endured a weak offensive season and his xwOBA sits at the lowest of his career. Let’s see if the park switch provides any hope of a rebound.
Last Friday, the Mariners made the first big splash of the trade deadline deals when they acquired Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo. The 29-year-old is enjoying another strong season, having posted a career best ERA so far and his second lowest SIERA. His SwStk% has declined to a career worst though, but his CStr% has risen to a career best to somewhat offset the drop in pure dominance. His GB% has also declined below 50% for the first time since 2018. It seems pretty clear this isn’t exactly the same type of pitcher as he’s been in the past, but he’s been just as effective. Now with the move to Seattle, how might his new park affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors.
WOW!!! Who had Hader getting dealt?? Put your hand down, no you didn’t. Nobody did!! This stunner feels particularly crazy because Milwaukee sits with a 3-game lead in the Central right now, but when we dig in deeper, you that both lefty relievers are coming off horrendous Julys and while Hader is the much more dominant arm (42% to 28% K rate), they haven’t been that different on the whole this year.
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks.
Covered in this article: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, Pederson
The rich get richer on both ends here. The Dodgers get a superstar 1B to install into their studly lineup and Freeman goes from a good lineup to a great one. The park move is a slight dip overall, going from 103 to 99, but Dodger Stadium does inflate lefty homers with a 124 Park Factor (101 in Atlanta). Freeman somehow only has two 100+ RBI seasons in his career, but #3 could be on the horizon with those loaded squad, though I was surprised to learn that the Dodgers have just one 100+ RBI season in the last five full seasons (Cody Bellinger, 2019).
Bottom line: Superstar player joins superstar team to continue superstar career, perhaps even a higher superstar level (a 40-HR season incoming?).
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I’ll be covering the impact of the most fantasy-relevant moves in the lead up to Opening Day.
Covered in this article: Chapman, Schwarber, Suzuki, Rizzo, Rosario, Fraley, Velasquez
Chapman played all of 2021, but it is hard to believe he was fully healthy given the output. His 101 wRC+ was the lowest of his career as his strikeout surged from 2020 carried over with a 33% rate. We saw it jump to 36% in 2020, but with it being just 37 games, there was some hope that he would get back toward his 24% rate from 2017-19. Without confirmation from Chapman, this is pure speculation, but I wonder if the hip was in a state where it didn’t impact his defense (17 Outs Above Average ranked 4th in MLB) but kept him from getting to high heat.
One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I will posting these regularly until the season starts.
Covered in this article: Cruz, Olson, Winker, Suárez, Williamson, and Dunn
Was his time with the Rays a BABIP-fueled blip (96 wRC+, .252 BABIP) or the start of legitimate decline? He also struck out in 27% of his 238 PA after being traded over. Maybe he hated the Trop, too, because that’s where he really struggled, posting just a .603 OPS in 101 PA. Even a Cruz who is more his 2021 line (122 wRC+) than the guy who put up a 164 in 735 PA from 2019-20 is totally fine. The top half of that Nationals lineup is coming together with Lane Thomas, César Hernández, Juan Soto, Cruz, and Josh Bell giving them a strong top five while Keibert Ruiz could give it a bit more length in the 6-spot. His bat plays everywhere, and Nationals Park is a bit of an unheralded offensive gem, giving righties a 103 Park Factor (5th in MLB) over the last three seasons. At age-41, it is worth planning for fewer plate appearances, but anywhere north of 450 should be enough to be an impact bat.
Bottom line: Premium slugger aging gracefully at age-41 and all of sudden this Washington lineup isn’t so bad, either.
