March Madness MLB Edition #4: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, and Pederson

One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks.

Covered in this article: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, Pederson

Previous editions: March 14th Pt. 1 | March 14th Pt. 2 | March 16th Pt. 3 |

Freddie Freeman to LAD

The rich get richer on both ends here. The Dodgers get a superstar 1B to install into their studly lineup and Freeman goes from a good lineup to a great one. The park move is a slight dip overall, going from 103 to 99, but Dodger Stadium does inflate lefty homers with a 124 Park Factor (101 in Atlanta). Freeman somehow only has two 100+ RBI seasons in his career, but #3 could be on the horizon with those loaded squad, though I was surprised to learn that the Dodgers have just one 100+ RBI season in the last five full seasons (Cody Bellinger, 2019).

Bottom line: Superstar player joins superstar team to continue superstar career, perhaps even a higher superstar level (a 40-HR season incoming?).

Kris Bryant to COL

In a way, this makes so much sense for the Rockies and that, of course, is because of just how little sense it makes on the surface. I generally despise everything the Rockies do. Their choices are often just outright stupid and nonsensical, regularly contradicting something they have said or done ahead of the move. All that said, I don’t quite hate this move with the fervor of most Rockies moves. I’d even go so far as to say, I like this move!

Yes, we did just go through a trade deadline where they held onto two expiring contracts who would’ve no doubt garnered them multiple prospects in Trevor Story and Jon Gray, the latter being held onto allegedly because of their plans to re-sign him (narrator: he’s now in Texas), which only makes this Bryant signing a bit weirder – are they rebuilding or do they consider themselves closer than we in the general public do after a 74-win season last year? No one in their lineup is under 25 years of age and they have a veteran-laden pitching staff, too.

Bryant obviously gets a substantial boost moving to Colorado, the single best hitting environment the game has ever seen. Coors is the top park for righties at 119, 13 points clear of Cincinnati and Baltimore tied for 2nd (though Baltimore is likely headed downward for righties with their recent changes). Bryant posted an .848 OPS in Chicago (20th Park Factor for righties) and San Francisco (27th), though his home-road balance (.820 road OPS in 2021; career 25-pt. home/road split) might be upset by the Coors Hangover Effect. Will the move get his RBI count out of the 70s for the first time since 2016? If they move him to the #3 spot, I like his chances, but if he continues to primarily bat #2, then the park move alone probably won’t get him there.

Bryant will be the primary LF which dings the outlook of Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, and Connor Joe by taking away one of the spots for them. Joe is easily the best hitter of the three, but the other two can handle center. Joe could get more time at 1B to compensate for the lost time in LF. C.J. Cron has had a multi-week injury in each of the last three seasons so they might opt to get him in that DH spot more consistently, especially if they let Charlie Blackmon continue to play RF after some passable defense there last year.

Bottom line: Big boost for Bryant, but muddies things up a bit for some interesting sleeper-types like Joe, Tapia, and Hilliard.

Zack Greinke to KC

A home run spike (1.6 HR/9) saddled Greinke with a 4.16 ERA last season, but his 1.17 WHIP in 171 innings helped him finished 70th among starting pitchers. His swinging strike rate dropped below 10% for the first time since 2012 at 9% and resulted in a 17% K rate, his lowest mark since 2005. At status quo, he will remain an innings-eating WHIP guy, but even at 38 years old, I’m reluctant to write off some strikeout recovery back into the low-20s. The move back to KC should help the HR issue (2nd lowest HR park factor since 2019) which could pull the ERA back under 4.00, too. He is regularly drafted into the 300s and this move shouldn’t really change that much so a lot of the risk is baked into the price. Greinke is probably best used as a streamer in friendly parks against weaker teams.

Bottom line: Veteran stud returns to where it all began which could help the recent HR issue and make him more than just a WHIP streamer.

Joc Pederson to SF

The platooning will continue in earnest for the Giants! Pederson has actually been a neutral bat since 2020 with just a 7-point OPS split surprisingly favoring his work against lefties (.726 vLH in 122 PA; .719 vRH in 497 PA), but I’m sure the Giants will lean on his 222-point career split (.832 vRH; .610 vLH) and play him against righties with the likes of Darin Ruf 러프 and Austin Slater taking his spot against lefties. He has more name value than fantasy value and the market has realized that with a 417 ADP since March 1st. That will go up some now that he has a team, but it will unlikely reach a spot where he is overpriced. He is best drafted in deeper leagues, ones with daily lineup moves, and DFS setups. This move does sting Ruf a bit if you thought he was going to garner more time versus righties with the addition of the DH.

Bottom line: Recent improvements vs. lefties will likely be ignored as Pederson joins one of the most platoon-happy teams in the league and his 222-point career OPS split says that is the right move.