Today, I move on from xHR/FB rate and its components to my xBABIP equation. Every year, there are some seemingly obvious candidate to regress (like the guy who just BABIP’d .390) or improve (like the guy who just BABIP’d .210). But what about the guys hovering within range of the league average of .298? Just because their BABIP marks were close to average doesn’t mean their skills supported such a mark. So let’s discuss hitters who posted a seemingly sustainable BABIP, but xBABIP suggests the mark was either way over their head or actually below what their skills suggested.

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Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss 7 hitters who could enjoy a HR/FB rate spike in 2020, assuming they maintain the component skills they displayed in 2019. Now let’s turn to the other side, those hitters who dramatically outperformed their xHR/FB rates and could be in for regression this year, unless they improve their underlying skills, or paid off Lady Luck once again to ensure fortune is on their side. As you might expect given the home run explosion, there were more overperformers than underperformers, so I had to cut it off at 6% over xHR/FB rate.

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Early this offseason, I determined that Mike Matheny doesn’t hate stolen bases, but could be a boost to the Royals stolen bases. At the time, I noted to check on Joe Maddon’s tendencies but never got to it. Then, my podcast mate, Rob Silver, basically begged me to run the same analysis for Dusty Baker. After that, one of my other team owners brought up Joe Girardi and Gabe Kapler. I was done talking to people before every manager needs to be analyzed on their stolen base tendencies. The following are the numbers on the four and the results were a little surprising.

To examine the managers’ tendencies, I compared how the baserunner’s tendencies changed with or without the manager in question. There were three groups of hitters to examine

1. The hitters who were on the manager’s team and then on a different one that same season.
2. Hitters who were on a different team the season before or after a season on the manager’s team.
3. The hitters who were on the manager’s team the season before or after his tenure started and ended.

Also, I combined all the values for an overall rate.

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Finally, it’s time for the main event! After weeks discussing the various xHR/FB rate components and reviewing 2019 performance, we now set our sights toward 2020. Today, I will identify and discuss a handful of fantasy relevant names that underperformed their xHR/FB rates most significantly. Remember that this doesn’t automatically mean we should be projecting a higher HR/FB rate this season. But perhaps rather than take the hitter’s actual HR/FB rate at face value, we should substitute our xHR/FB rate mark when reviewing his historical marks and making a 2020 projection.

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Last week, I identified and discussed a slew of hitters whose xHR/FB rates validated their surprisingly strong HR/FB rates. Today, let’s look at some of the disappointing hitters in HR/FB rate that were validated by a dramatic decline in xHR/FB rate. Remember, an appearance here doesn’t mean these hitters should be projected to repeat their disappointing 2019 marks, as this is merely a backward-looking analysis. We need to account for additional factors when making a projection. But all else equal, the guy with an xHR/FB rate validating his disappointing HR/FB rate should be expected to have a worse chance of rebounding than the guy who suffered a disappointing actual mark, but underperformed his xHR/FB rate.

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One potential avenue to finding a playing time gem is searching for those who are out of options and thus cannot be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers. Some of these guys would clear waivers and wouldn’t be great even with some playing time, but I’m still including them just to be thorough. I’ll obviously highlight my favorites. The new 26-man roster will definitely save quite a few of these guys.

• American Leaguers

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Atlanta Braves

Adam Duvall – We’re getting further removed from his back-to-back 30+ HR seasons (2016-17) and there’s no room in the Atlanta outfield right now. He’s a capable 4th OF and would make a nice power pickup if extended time opened up.

Charlie Culberson – He gets more at-bats that his profile page suggests because he definitely plays a handful of games every year in Dansby Swanson’s jersey and I simply cannot be convinced otherwise.

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One potential avenue to finding a playing time gem is searching for those who are out of options and thus cannot be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers. Some of these guys would clear waivers and wouldn’t be great even with some playing time, but I’m still including them just to be thorough. I’ll obviously highlight my favorites. The new 26-man roster will definitely save quite a few of these guys.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Baltimore Orioles

Renato Núñez – It might seem odd to call someone coming off a 31 HR-99 RBI season “fringe” but tell that to Chris Carter. That said, he’ll be on the club, likely the full-time DH, and a safe bet for another 25+ HR.

Hanser Alberto – Coming off an insane out-of-nowhere season, Alberto has a secured spot after hitting .305 in 550 PA, but it was heavily influenced by short-side platoon domination. He hit .398/.414/.534 against lefties with a .435 BABIP and .238/.269/.340 against righties with a .237 BABIP. Don’t overpay.

Pedro Severino – Backup catcher with some AL-only 2C appeal.

Richard Ureña – Glove-only utilityman.

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Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been sharing various hitter lists focused on the components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, I want to share yet another list. This time, we’re not going to look at the individual components, but rather the xHR/FB rate itself. Just like every other year, there were breakouts and busts. Some of them lucked their way into surprising HR/FB rates, while others seemingly deserved such results. The opposite is true as well, with some batters suffering from poor luck, which dragged down their HR/FB rates, while others suffered a real decline in power.

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After signing free agent Kole Calhoun, the Diamondbacks apparently weren’t done adding outfielders. On Monday, the team acquired Starling Marte for a pair of prospects. The knee-jerk reaction is that this must be a positive for Marte’s contribution on offense given the perception of PNC Park as an extremely pitcher friendly environment. Do the park factors confirm this sentiment?

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed a slew of surprising names among the average fly ball distance (AFBD) leaders. Today, I’ll check in with the laggards. Which hitters finished closer to the bottom of the barrel than the top that we never would have expected?

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