After a disappointing 139 plate appearances over this short season, Hunter Renfroe has signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox to take over as the team’s starting right fielder. Let’s consult the park factors to learn how the soon-to-be 29-year-old’s performance may be affected.
On Saturday, reports indicate that 30-year-old catcher James McCann has agreed to a four-year deal with the Mets. He heads to The Big Apple after two seasons with the White Sox. Let’s check out the park factors to determine how the park switch might affect his offensive performance.
Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. This will be a running series this winter, check it out the other installments below.
Joey Gallo | TEX – OF – 77 wRC+
Gallo has been a fantasy darling for a while now spurred by back-to-back 40 HR seasons in 2017-18. The catch was a combined .208 AVG in those seasons so you had to plan around that deficiency if you wanted the power. Then in 2019 his BABIP soared to a career best .368, fueling a .253 AVG in the process, though it was just 70 games as injuries limited him. What I think was lost on many was that a .500 BABIP against lefties really drove the gains for Gallo.
In other words, it was fraudulent.
Last Thursday, Adam Eaton officially signed a one-year contract with the White Sox to take over as their starting right fielder. The now 32-year-old is coming off a massively disappointing short season, as his wOBA dipped below .300. Will the park switch help fuel an offensive rebound? Let’s consult the park factors.
On Tuesday, Carlos Santana signed a two-year deal with the Royals, likely to take over as their starting first baseman, with the occasional start at DH I’m sure. The move pushes Hunter Dozier back to third base and essentially signals that the team has given up on Ryan O’Hearn. Let’s find out how the change in home ball park might affect his performance.
Yesterday, I used batter Hard% as the first example of why using averages might be deceiving. Along with an explanation as to why, I listed and discussed 15 hitters whose fly ball Hard% most exceeded their overall Hard%. Let’s now shift to the other side and identify and discuss the hitters whose FB Hard% settled most below overall Hard%. These are the hitters whose home run power was actually worse than overall Hard% suggests.
I started diving into the dividing out the effects of injuries limited ramp time for the short season and didn’t get far. Some league-wide rates didn’t add up. Hitters who head to the IL are outperforming the healthy population.
Note: This analysis is math-heavy. I summarized my findings and questions at the end.
To start with, here are the league-wide OPS values for all nonpitchers as I compare the first month as players might have been ramping up.
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As more and more advanced metrics are publicized and used in analysis and discussion, opportunity for misuse and misinterpretation of these statistics continues to increase. First, remember that a statistic is a fact. The metric in and of itself isn’t wrong or bad, but rather the use and interpretation might be. Some metrics are easier to misinterpret than others. One such metric type is the use of an average, which applies to many metrics. Averages are fine if used properly. For example, we could say a .350 hitter recorded more hits per at-bat than a .300 hitter, but we absolutely cannot say that the .350 hitter is better than the .300 hitter, solely using the difference in batting average as the determining factor.
Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!
Victor Robles | WAS – OF – 65 wRC+
Robles had the standard “better in fantasy” season in 2019 as his 17 HR and 28 SB overshadowed his uninspired .255/.326/.419 line. His proponents (of which I am one) acknowledged the poor batted ball profile but felt that it was premature to lock the 23-year old into his 2019 levels. Oh, he wasn’t locked in… turns out he could get worse!
Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters whose SwStk% marks improved the most versus 2019. Today, let’s check in on the opposite end of the list. Remember that “decliner” in this context actually means these hitters’ SwStk% marks have increased, so their skill declined, but the metric we’re using to evaluate their skill has risen.