Finally, we’re at the last of the in-season metric reviews! Today, we return to Statcast’s xwOBA. If you recall, earlier I reviewed the underperformers through early May, so the sample here is much larger. You would expect xwOBA to mean a little less, and actual wOBA to mean a little more over the larger sample. Let’s find out if that ended up being true for this small group.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who most underperformed their Statcast xBA marks through May 17. All but one posted a stronger batting average the rest of the way. Now let’s flip over to the overperformers — those hitters who posted batting averages significantly above their xBA marks.
Experiment alert! Prepare yourself to digest a very simple linear model that looks at plate discipline data. I’ll do some explaining of the model along the way, but here are a few points to cleanse your already superb palate before sampling the charcuterie:
Today, I move on to reviewing the list of biggest batting average underperformers through May 17, according to Statcast’s xBA. As usual, xBA isn’t perfect, as it ignores anything shift-related, but it’s good enough that if you stick with the players on the extremes (largest BA-xBA gaps), I would imagine the rest of season directional moves should be expected. Let’s find out if that was the case.
After reviewing the early season Statcast xHR underperformers yesterday, let’s now review the early season Statcast xHR overperformers today. Once again, I’ll compare each hitter’s HR/FB rate through May 9 to his mark over the rest of the season.
As I wind down my in-season metric reviews, I now move along to Statcast’s xHR calculation. In early May, I shared a list of hitters whose xHR total was at least one home run more than their actual totals. I wasn’t entirely sure what the best way to review how this group performed over the rest of the season, so I settled on HR/FB rate through May 8 versus the rest of the season. I ruled out AB/HR because strikeout and fly ball rates influence that rate and a homer can only be hit if the ball is put into play and isn’t on the ground.
Yesterday, I reviewed the list of hitters who most underperformed their xwOBA marks through May 1. All but two of the 11, who had already posted actual wOBA marks over .400, improved their wOBA marks over the rest of the season, some quite dramatically. Let’s now review the hitters who most overperformed their xwOBA marks through May 2 and find out how many of them did indeed suffer a wOBA decline through the rest of the season.
Today, I continue my in-season metric lists with a review of the xwOBA underperformers through May 1. We know that xwOBA isn’t a perfect metric of what a hitter “deserved”, nor is it meant to be predictive. However, it’s certainly better to use it than wOBA itself when trying to forecast rest of season performance. This is especially true when only a small sample of games are in the books, so expected metrics play a more valuable role. So let’s find out how this group of hitters performed over the rest of the season.
The focus of this article isn’t to list all the moves. Instead, I’m going to focus on the moves where I think fantasy values changed the most. Also, I dived into a few muddled situations.
There has been quite a bit of discussion on how bad the Rangers lineup was last season. They ranked 24th in hitter WAR (only team WAR projections are available), but are projected for the 12th highest total as of now.
I’m not shying away from this offense that rates to be better than the Red Sox and Braves. Since the offense will be respectable, there is no worry for Seager or Semien seeing a major drop-off (possibly some with home run regression but EVERY OTHER ANALYST has covered this angle). Read the rest of this entry »
Arguing price is something that has been going down since currency was made out of copper coins and some of the coins had holes in the middle. In today’s world, price negotiators say things like, “$3.15 a gallon for gas?! You’re out of your mind!” or “I’m not paying over $3 for a watermelon, I’m just not!” Whether you’re the type to wait for a sale on underwear or the type to just go and pay what you pay because, well, you need it, all of us can relate to the idea of arguing a price. In my last piece on Kyle Freeland, I made the case that he’s worth $4. I was immediately argued with (politely, that is) about that price, and you know what? I may be overpaying. But, that’s the beauty of price! It’s here, it’s there, it’s really up for debate. So, let’s do it, let’s try this: Garrett Hampson is not worth $8 in FanGraphs points Ottoneu leagues. Here’s why: