Yesterday I started touring the diamond looking for low-cost assets capable of big second half performances well beyond their cost. These are guys who’ve shown the track record and/or skillset worth gambling on despite a brutal three months to open the 2018 season. Health is likely a major factor for many of the players on these two lists so part of the bet is that they’ll find some health and hit like we’re used to seeing. Here’s the rest of the infield and some outfielders:

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We’re about to flip the calendar to July and many of us have teams that are floundering in the middle-to-low end of the standings. If there’s any hope to contend, not only will your current players have to turn it around, but you’re going to need some gems to emerge either off the wire or via trade. Acquiring elite assets will cost elite assets and if you had those, you wouldn’t be in this position in the first place so it’s time to take some gambles. Here’s a list of affordable assets who could perform well beyond their cost based on previous performance, skills, and/or improved health.

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I’ve updated my hitter prospect rankings (any name ideas?) based on age, level, position, and production with some regression baked in to handle small samples (link to last pitcher rankings). Besides the top-75 list, I’ve included some additional information on three lesser-known players.

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It’s always fun to discover which players fantasy owners are rushing out to the free agent pool to add to their rosters. Typically, it’s the hot player of the week or the pitcher coming off one good start. But sometimes, the player was criminally underowned to begin with, and the ownership surge simply get this percentage to where it should have been. So let’s check out the hottest pickups in CBS leagues and decide whether fantasy owners are right to be rushing to add these players to their teams.

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Today’s deep league wire features a blast from the past and a hitter at a position you are almost surely in need of upgrading.

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It’s hard to put a good spin on Gary Sanchez rolling into late June as the seventh-ranked catcher in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater), but while his season has been disappointing, it has its bright side. For one thing, at least he is having a better fantasy season than Willson Contreras. For another, he leads all catchers in runs (35) and is second in home runs (13) and RBI (39).

It’s clearly Sanchez’s .194 batting average that is holding him back, and now that he is mired in a 6 for 62 slump, it’s heading in the wrong direction. He is a bit off last season’s home run pace and his strikeout rate has risen slightly from 22.9 percent in 2017 to 24.6 percent so far in 2018, but his real problem is what he is doing on balls in play.
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Yesterday, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss eight hitters who appear due for a BABIP surge. Today, I’ll check in on the other side of the ledger, those whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actuals, suggesting serious downside.

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Last year, I utilized our Splits Leaderboard and incorporated shift data into my newest xBABIP equation. So with just a couple of weeks before the all-star break, let’s calculate xBABIP for all hitters and discuss eight of them whose marks are significantly higher than their actual BABIPs, suggesting dramatic upside potential.

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Finding hitters on the wire is always challenging. We know scooping someone with a .500 AVG and a bundle of homers over a 2-3 week sample will come back to earth, but how much? Is it their one hot streak for the year or something more viable? I’ve got three surging bats to look at here. One is just north of 50% because I really wanted to talk about him. Deep leaguers will likely only be able to acquire these guys via trade, but we can dive into the backend of the player pool another time.

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A few years back, I created a system to help me find under the radar prospects using just position, age at the level, and minor league production (wRC+). I wanted a system besides industry lists to use in dynasty leagues and it worked fine. At the same time though, FanGraphs hired this guy named Chris Mitchel and he created KATOH. His system quickly outperformed mine, so instead of trying to keep up, I asked him to join my fantasy teams. With Chris now gone, my old system is back and running to help find some diamonds in the rough.

As I previously stated, the rankings are just based on age at the level, position, and production. The final value created by the program approximates the players value based on lining up the player to actual prospect grades (80 = MVP, <20 = minor league filler). Obviously, the ranking isn’t close to the final say but I find some hitters before other do.

Note: If any player type seems misplaced, let me know. From eye-balling some values, catchers may be getting too much of a position adjustment.

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