Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss eight hitters whose marks suggest an imminent surge in their actual HR/FB rates. Today, let’s check in on seven fantasy relevant hitters on the other side of the coin — those whose xHR/FB rates are well below their actual marks, suggesting near-term downside.
In my chat last night, I got several questions on Joey Votto and his power loss. I decided I investigate the drop along with several other regulars who currently have an isolated power (ISO) less than their projected Steam projections.
To get a list of hitters, I took the hitter with a least 150 PA this season and compared their projected and actual ISO’s. Here the top 20.
| Name | Age | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 32 | .249 | .079 | .170 |
| Kole Calhoun | 30 | .171 | .035 | .137 |
| Rougned Odor | 24 | .224 | .088 | .135 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 28 | .367 | .244 | .123 |
| Jay Bruce | 31 | .225 | .109 | .115 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 27 | .227 | .113 | .114 |
| Neil Walker | 32 | .197 | .088 | .109 |
| Domingo Santana | 25 | .211 | .107 | .104 |
| Joey Votto | 34 | .225 | .134 | .092 |
| Addison Russell | 24 | .192 | .102 | .090 |
| Michael Conforto | 25 | .231 | .144 | .087 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 34 | .182 | .101 | .081 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 28 | .187 | .110 | .076 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 25 | .268 | .191 | .076 |
| Orlando Arcia | 23 | .143 | .067 | .076 |
| Adrian Beltre | 39 | .184 | .109 | .076 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 28 | .261 | .187 | .074 |
| Jose Pirela | 28 | .151 | .078 | .073 |
| Kendrys Morales | 35 | .210 | .138 | .073 |
| Josh Donaldson | 32 | .261 | .190 | .072 |
It’s been a while since I calculated my xHR/FB rate equation and compared its results to each hitter’s actual marks. So let’s discuss eight names, plus two bonus names, with HR/FB rates that fall most short of their xHR/FB rate marks. While there are no guarantees in life, especially baseball, there’s a strong chance that each one of these hitters raises their HR/FB rates the rest of the season, assuming they can maintain the underlying skills driving the marks.
The MLB Draft is unique in that it happens during the season. For the football and basketball drafts, they happen well before the season starts because the players can contribute for the upcoming season. With baseball, the odds are against one single player getting the call this season. That doesn’t mean fantasy owners, especially those in keeper and dynasty formats, shouldn’t possibly be making some moves depending on their needs.
The biggest key for anyone considering rostering a just drafted player, know your league rules. First, some leagues may not allow the drafted players to be rostered until the next offseason draft. Other leagues don’t allow owning a player until they’ve at least played a minor or major league game. In some other leagues, the players are rosterable this next FAAB period. Each one is unique. Let me start the discussion with the last league type.
Batter production can roller coaster up-and-down during a season and many times the player’s production eventually stabilizes at an expected level. But sometimes a hitter intentionally or unintentionally changes his plate approach to achieve a new talent level. I’m going to examine three top hitters, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Altuve, and why their struggles are caused by changes in approach.
Over my years of research, I’ve found three main items which point to a true talent change, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, hitting pitches in the strike zone, and groundball rate (verified with launch angle). When one of these items change, the hitter’s production should also change. Luck could still be a factor in the short run but given enough time, there will be a new output level.
If there’s one thing I truly excel at — and that’s a pretty big “if” — it’s being way, way too early when deeming players ready for fantasy relevance. For a perfect example, I’d like to present as evidence the fact that I wrote this glowing piece on Jesus Aguilar over four years ago, back in April of 2014. Over the next three seasons, Aguilar picked up a whopping 64 total plate appearances in the majors, hitting .172/.234/.190 in this extremely limited sample.
Last season, Aguilar finally got a chance to show what he could do at the game’s highest level. While he hit quite well — registering a triple slash of .265/.331/.505 with 16 home runs — his playing time was still limited by a combination of the Brewers’ organizational depth and his own substandard defensive skills, as he picked up just 311 PA in 113 games. Eric Thames started 103 games at first base for the Brew Crew last year, leaving Aguilar to pick up the scraps where he could — he got 53 starts at 1B, with the rest of his playing time coming as a pinch hitter, or as a designated hitter in American League parks.
Coming into 2018, it looked like Aguilar’s path to playing time was as unclear as ever. Milwaukee’s outfield was so stacked that it appeared their first-base playing time would be split between Thames and Ryan Braun, leaving Aguilar as the odd man out again. However, when Thames went down with a torn thumb ligament in late April, Aguilar took full advantage of the chance to play nearly every day.
I was a little surprised to find the 27-year-old available in my Tout Wars league where every semi-decent full-time player seems to be owned. While I didn’t need outfield help, I examined his profile and jumped at the opportunity to roster him.
I valued Taylor as an endgame option coming into the season based on his low AVG and suspect playing time with Victor Robles ready in the minors. The 2018 Nationals outfield has been decimated with injuries so far, so Taylor’s playing. The playing time could end with Adam Eaton attempting to return but, for now, Taylor’s roster spot is secure.
As for Taylor’s talent, he falls into the Drew Stubbs player profile, horrible AVG/OBP skills but a decent combination of home runs and stolen bases. Combining his 2017 minor and major league totals, he posted 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases. While the home runs haven’t come this season, he has hit four with 13 steals in 14 attempts.
The phrase “Buying Low” gets thrown around in the baseball community. I’m not sure if owners can actually buy low on many of these frustrating but talented players. Owners need to be willing to sell. I going to try to redefine the concept of buying low concentrating on drop rates and go over a few potential targets.
When I hear or read about buying low on a player, the touts are focusing on buying a good player during a cold streak. Paul Goldschmidt fits this label with his .208/.324/.380 slash line. Owners paid first round prices for replacement level production. But are Goldschmidt’s owners selling low? Probably not.
Going over some recent trades at the Yahoo trade tracker, Goldschmidt is being traded straight up for players such as Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto, Patrick Corbin, and Shohei Ohtani.
His value is down some (and should be with the K% spike) but not horribly. He’s still owned in 99%+ of leagues at ESPN, Yahoo, Fantrax, and CBS. Even the most frustrated owners in shallow leagues aren’t moving on. So why should owners focus their time and energy on players who even the most frustrated owners aren’t moving on with?
With our auction calculator update, I going to look at three top-rated batters.
In my recent Launch Angle podcast, I had a tough time deciding if I’d draft Ozzie Albies or Jose Altuve in a new 2018 league. I decided I’d go with Altuve but being that I had to think about it, I needed to see if I buy Albies’s ascension into a possible first or second round talent.
Others and myself had an idea Albies was going to be good but just not hit for so much power. If someone would have told me to predict six and 13 for Albies’s home runs and stolen base totals, I would have swapped them. Last year, he had 15 HR and 29 SB. The season before, it was 6 HR and 30 SB. I figured the speed was safe (and it is) but his power may come later. I was right, he isn’t hitting for more power, he’s utilizing his it better.
Yesterday, I used the Statcast expected metrics to calculate player xISO marks, then comparing them to actuals. I began by looking at those hitters who have posted ISO marks most below their xISO marks, suggesting the potential for significant upside in the near future. Today, let’s discuss hitters whose actual ISO marks have most exceeded their xISO marks, suggesting possible downside.
