Yesterday, I reviewed the list of 11 potential BABIP surgers for 2018 I published in mid-February. Today, let’s look at my BABIP decliner list. Given my past successes with decliners vs surgers list, I’m betting this list is going to look good. Let’s see if that turns out true.
In mid-February, I identified and discussed 11 hitters whose xBABIP marks stood significantly above their actual BABIP marks. I dubbed the group the potential BABIP surgers for 2018. There are two important caveats to remember:
1) This equation, while the best currently out there for estimating what BABIP should have been given underlying skills, is still not great, leaving lots of room for batters skills not captured in the equation, and of course, lady luck
2) xBABIP is not predictive/forward looking/a projection. It’s backwards looking like SIERA, but it correlates with next year BABIP better than BABIP itself, which is quite meaningful.
Yesterday, I reviewed the list of hitters who might benefit from an increased rate of pulled flied balls heading into the season. Today, I’ll recap the hitters who already hit a ton of fly balls in 2017, but posted below average Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist marks. The thinking here is they needed every bit of that FB Pull% to knock balls over the fence, considering they were below average in the other two metrics. Let’s see how they performed.
In early February, I essentially listed hitters who have posted low fly ball pull percentages. However, I added two important additional filters to finalize the list — above average Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist. The idea here is that they already have the raw power to hit their balls out of the park, but they just need to hit those balls more to the pull side where the fences are closer. These are the guys I considered potentially benefiting most from more pulled flies. Let’s find out whether they did indeed increase their FB Pull% and if that jump also fueled a spike in HR/FB rate.
Even though Jose Peraza had only a little more than a full season’s worth of major league playing time entering 2018, it seemed fair to think we had a strong grasp of what kind of hitter he was. In his major and minor league past, he had been an aggressive hitter with good contact skills but with little power. Speed was his top tool coming up as a prospect, but in his first full season in the majors in 2017, Peraza merely tied for 17th in the stolen base rankings with 23 and tied for 40th in infield hits with 16. It was easy to see why he was often ignored until after the first 200 players were picked on draft day.
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I try not to miss examining players who had great, short seasons. An injury or time in the minors kept them off the end-of-season rankings. They flew under the radar but given a full season of playing time they stick out and could provide hidden value. Today, I’m going to start by examing the top prorated hitters.
I needed a way to value the hitters and decided to create an overall Standing Gain Points (SGP) formula from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational leagues. The 13 15-team leagues were set up with 14 hitters (1 C, 2 Util), 9 pitchers, and used AVG. Tanner Bell and I will be providing this formula, along with several others, in our new book, The Process, available within weeks (shameless plug).
Dammit. For a few years, I followed an old study showing hitters who played through an injury would outperform their next season’s projections, especially in relation to power. Last offseason, I collected a list of 26 such hitters. When I went to compare this group’s projections to their actual performance, I found no overperformance and I’m not sure how I’ll value them going forward.
Yesterday, I reviewed my stolen base upside guys, after comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer projections in the preseason. Today, I’ll review my downside guys. Let’s see how they performed.
Let’s continue reviewing my Pod vs Steamer series, pitting my preseason Pod Projections against the Steamer forecasts. Today, I’ll recap my stolen base upside picks. I used PA/SB as my ratio to account for any differences in playing time projections. Let’s see how the group performed.
With steals becoming more scarce, owners were forced to reach for the few stolen base sources which could carry a team. In 2018, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were supposed to be two such sources. Both disappointed their owners but the risk of a decline was evident even though their owners, which includes the author, ignored them. The owners were hoping for a stolen base panacea but ended up with burnt pancakes.
Going into the season, our Depth Charts projected Hamilton to have the most stolen bases at 52 and Gordon was third at 46. Both missed badly with Hamilton stealing 34 and Gordon with 30. In my Tout Wars league, 16 steals were the difference between 7th and 2nd in the category.
The reason for their decline didn’t involve their ability to steal a base. Both couldn’t hit enough to get on base and continue leading off. Both had on-base rates under .300 and OPS’s in the low .600’s. By the season’s end, both were deservingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup (Hamilton 106 times, Gordon 34 times). In all fairness, their projected OPS values (.674 and .648) were below the average catcher (.676).
