Hot Potato: The Most Added Players in CBS, June 25, 2018
It’s always fun to discover which players fantasy owners are rushing out to the free agent pool to add to their rosters. Typically, it’s the hot player of the week or the pitcher coming off one good start. But sometimes, the player was criminally underowned to begin with, and the ownership surge simply get this percentage to where it should have been. So let’s check out the hottest pickups in CBS leagues and decide whether fantasy owners are right to be rushing to add these players to their teams.
| Player | CBS Previous Week Ownership % | CBS Current Week Ownership % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 27 | 73 | 46 |
| Brent Suter | 26 | 52 | 26 |
| Sam Dyson | 2 | 27 | 25 |
| Shane Bieber | 17 | 42 | 25 |
| Domingo German | 59 | 80 | 21 |
| Shelby Miller | 13 | 34 | 21 |
| Yan Gomes | 30 | 49 | 19 |
Injuries in the Brewers rotation has opened up an opportunity for rookie Freddy Peralta, and he has been superb in his three starts. While he has struggled with control at every level, his strikeout rates have been elite and over 30% at every stop since 2017. That’s even backed by SwStk% marks above 13%. Interestingly, he’s been a two pitch pitcher, featuring a curve to go with his fastball, and he’s throw his fastball over 80% of the time! Has a starting pitcher ever generated that many whiffs and strikeouts throwing his fastball that often?!
His curve ball has been pretty good, though not elite, so the majority of his high whiff rate is coming via the fastball. Even crazier — he only averages 91 and change on the pitch! It’s hard to argue with his professional results, but I have a hard time believing any starting pitcher could strike out that many hitters relying so heavily on a sub-92 mph fastball.
Boy, Brewers starters are hot topics. Brent Suter had a forgettable April, posting a 5.34 ERA, but he’s been under 4.00 since and his skills have improved. The southpaw gets by with sterling control, as his fastball sits below 87 mph! I wouldn’t be interested in him in shallow mixed leagues given the limited strikeout potential, but a 4.00 ERA and strong WHIP are certainly usable in 15-team mixed and deeper.
Sam Dyson’s ownership shot up after Hunter Strickland hit the DL and he was named the primary ninth inning man. His skills have completely rebounded from last year’s disaster, and although he’s not your prototypical closer, he’s certainly good enough to get the job done. The problem, though, is that the Giants bullpen also features a dominant Tony Watson, who has closed before, and a healthy(?) Mark Melancon, who had been their closer until he suffered an injury himself. So, there’s little job security here and it wouldn’t be a surprise if any of those three ran away with the closer role.
Who the heck is Shane “Don’t Call Me Justin” Bieber?! In the minors, he has consistently shown absolutely elite control, with his highest walk rate at any stint sitting at just 3.1%! Amazingly, he has paired that with double digit SwStk% marks everywhere, and mid-20% strikeout rates. How has he not gotten more prospect hype? It’s not even like his velocity is severely lacking, as he has averaged just over 93 mph with his four-seam fastball, which is actually a notch above the league average.
To go along with the fastball, his slider has been incredible, generating a 33.3% SwStk%, while both his curve and changeup are at 18.2%. That’s quite the arsenal. Actually, it reminds me of Corey Kluber, as both he and Bieber’s fastball ain’t any good, despite average velocity. If the elite control and whiff induction wasn’t enough, he has also been a ground ball pitcher, which should help limit his homers allowed. I have no idea who Shane Bieber is and where he came from, but I’m liking what I’m seeing.
Man, talk about Jekyll and Hyde, Domingo German has been up and down since entering the Yankees rotation. Looking beyond the ERA though, his skills have been fantastic, as he has posted a 28.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 3.32 SIERA over eight starts. His ERA during that time stands at an ugly 5.09, though, so his owners may not even realize how good he has actually been. And heck, you might find him still swimming in your free agent pool.
So apparently fantasy owners are eagerly anticipating Shelby Miller’s debut upon returning from Tommy John surgery. His minor league rehab starts look good, as he has struck out nearly 35% of the batters he has faced. However, I am always hesitant to pick up a pitcher returning from major elbow surgery, as they typically struggle mightily with their control. I also want to see where Miller’s velocity is, but I’d likely recommend staying away, especially early on.
Oddly, Yan Gomes is the only hitter on today’s list of pickups. I’m not sure why all of a sudden now fantasy owners are picking up Gomes, but there’s seemingly always a couple of teams in desperate need of a catcher. Gomes is doing what he’s always done, but is striking out more than ever before, and also hitting more fly balls. He’s not swinging and missing more often though, which suggests to me that he isn’t necessarily selling out for more power. You’re probably not going to get a helpful batting average, but how many catchers offer that? He’s a worthwhile second catcher in all leagues given that he’s always possessed good power.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Bieber also pitches for the Indians which means a nice steady diet of Twins, Sox, Tigers and Royals.
I’m guessing the Gomes adds are nearly all as Cervelli replacement. It’s not that Gomes became awesome all of a sudden, he’s just the most decent freely available catcher.
Sanchez too. Bidding on Gomes & Barnhardt was quite active on sunday in my league.
Hey Mike,
Narratively, you hypothesize at the top that often these pickups either reflect a pitcher coming off one good start, or who was under-owned to begin with and is now experiencing a market correction. Analytically, you do a nice job of appraising these players’ actual skills going forward (and despite my comments below, I think people are probably considering Peralta as a possible season-long add).
However, I think it would probably be helpful to acknowledge that (in terms of narrative) many of the highest SP adds are actually streamers based on the upcoming 1-2 match-ups, and (in terms of analysis) this changes how people are planning to use them and what they expect from them going forward. In particular, for daily leagues, both Brewers pitchers get a plum KC match-up in the next two days, and for weekly leagues, Peralta has a two-start week where KC is followed by CIN. Meanwhile, Shelby Miller has both a great daily match-up against MIA, and a two-start week where SF is on the back-end. I know not every owner streams, but many of the more active owners who drive these trends are likely to stream, and so I think that, both narratively (why did owners pick them up now?) and analytically (how will they perform going forward?), any “most added” piece should probably acknowledge this.
To be honest, I never realized that fantasy owners actually pick up 2-start pitchers to stream every week. I have rarely done this as I rarely have a roster spot with a fungible player. Eventually, I land on a player I want to keep and there goes that spot. So given that I don’t do it, I don’t think about it as a strategy others do. And I’m usually unaware of a particular pitcher’s matchup the coming week until I set my lineup, and then I just know my own pitchers. But you’re definitely correct, it’s just something I didn’t think about.
We committed streamers consider those 1 or 2 roster spots to be non-fungible and reserved for the week’s “it” players. Part of this is recognizing that when you stream a SP and they perform well it does not mean they are worth carrying for real, it just means you picked the right matchups.
Reason people are picking up on Gomes is because Sanchez and Cervelli are now down.
“I’m not sure why all of a sudden now fantasy owners are picking up Gomes…”
Gary Sanchez injury.
Peralta was dazzling again last night, and he was using his curve a lot. He also mixed in some changeups effectively.
Yeah, he threw his curve more and its usage was his highest. But still over 70% fastball. It’s obviously worked amazingly well so far, I just always remain skeptical with pitchers who rely so heavily on their fastball. Especially because his velocity is below average. If he was throwing high 90s, different story.