Four Last 14 Day Powerhouses

Yesterday, I highlighted five lesser owned hitters who have running wild over the last two weeks. Today, I’ll discuss four hitters who have posted absurd HR/FB rates over the last 14 days. These players are all widely available and could knock another couple out, which may be the difference between a point or two in the homer category, and perhaps RBI.

Man, one of my biggest regrets is dropping Niko Goodrum early in the season in my AL-Only keeper league. He wasn’t expected to hold a starting job all year! But he has, jumping from position to position. In fact, he has played every non-catcher position on the diamond except center field! Talk about a super utility man. Though Goodrum has only shown mediocre power in the minors, with his highest HR/FB rate over a reasonable sample size coming in at just 12.8%, he has revved it up during his time with the Tigers this season. While he isn’t pulling his fly balls much more than the league average and his fly ball exit velocity is unimpressive, he has been a consistent power source all season. I do expect his HR/FB rate to be lower than it currently sits over the rest of the way, but with multi-position eligibility and speed to go along with the power, he needs to be owned in more than 21% of leagues.

Jake Cave?! The 25-year-old debuted with little fanfare this year, but he has performed respectably at the plate despite an inflated 32.6% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, his fly ball pull rate is actually below the league average, but he does make up for the lack of pull prowess by ranking in the top third in fly ball and line drive exit velocity among those with at least 100 batted ball events. Even more impressively, he ranks 21st (out of 373) in barrels per batted ball event, just above Mookie Betts and Nelson Cruz. The high strikeout rate gives me pause, but a pristine batted ball profile with line drives and zero pop-ups supports an inflated BABIP, to go along with a penchant for barrels propping up his homer total.

Man has Franmil Reyes enjoyed a power breakout or what this year?! His HR/FB rate has been on a tear since Single-A in 2015, as it has risen from 6% to 12.4% to 19.4% to 32%(!!) over his four most recent minor league stints. That’s progress! He hasn’t slowed down any in the Majors with a 33.3% HR/FB rate, as he tries to prove his Triple-A power spike was no fluke. It might surprise you to learn that Reyes was ranked just 27th among Padres prospects heading into the season, even with a 70 Raw Power grade. He never had major strikeout issues in the minors either, but I’m guessing the continue ascent of his HR/FB rate at Triple-A this year surprised everyone.

Like the others, Reyes doesn’t pull his flies particularly often. But it doesn’t truly matter as he sits 20th in FB/LD EV and 11th in Brls/BBE. He just hits his flies super hard and this power potential should be owned in far more than 30% of leagues.

Having made the terrible decision to go all in on Greg Bird entering the season, it’s a sad end to his 2018 opportunity as he rides the bench and recent acquisition Luke Voit clobbers homer after homer. Voit actually wasn’t a big masher in the minors, as his career best HR/FB rate there was just 14.4%. While he too hasn’t pulled his flies much, he has maintained an above average FB/LD EV and his Brls/BBE actually ranks seventh among hitters with at least 50 batted ball events (457 hitters). I’m not betting he continues at this pace, but he should keep knocking homers, just at a diminished clip. He’s currently dealing with a back injury though, so monitor his availability in the coming days.