Archive for Hitters

9/30/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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POSITIONAL POST MORTEMS

Razzball Player Rater (type C or 1B into the POS field after it loads)

•  CATCHER
  • Kurt Suzuki (3:40)
  • The Studs – J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sánchez, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Wilson Ramos (4:24)
  • Mitch Garver (5:40)
  • Christian Vazquez (7:15)
  • James McCann (9:44)
  • Omar Narváez (11:40)
  • Travis d’Arnaud (14:58)
  • Jorge Alfaro (19:43)
  • Roberto Pérez (24:10)

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A September surge doesn’t guarantee success the following year. For every Luke Voit (208 wRC+ in September 2018; 128 in 2019), Ketel Marte (148; 151), Yuli Gurriel (160; 134), there’s a Ryan O’Hearn (157; 68), Kevin Kiermaier (162; 77), or Willson Contreras who actually had the worst September wRC+ (min. 70 PA) at 27 but rebounded for an excellent 2019 and career-best 129 wRC+. It doesn’t need a 100% success rate to be a worthy exercise, though.

Let’s look at a handful of September standouts (focusing primarily on guys who weren’t great through August) and see if they are worth buying into for 2020.

Eloy Jiménez, CWS | 188 wRC+ in September

Jimenez came into the season with major expectations only to labor through the first two months hitting just .220/.273/.390 with 6 HR and a high ankle sprain that shelved him for nearly a month. He soared from June 1st through the first week after the All-Star break (.921 OPS, 11 HR) and it looked like he was cool for the summer. But a bruised ulnar nerve shut him down for a minimum stay and curbed some of the momentum.

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For those in daily transaction leagues, streaming hitters is a viable strategy, especially if you’re in a shallow league and have many reasonable options sitting in free agency. Today, I’ll be discussing the pitchers to stream against and why. However, I’m not going to identify specific hitters because I don’t know who’s available in your league. You could use the information I share to search the type of players and determine what, if any, transactions to make.

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Every season, there are a couple of hitters who go bonkers over a small sample size over the second half of the season. Because the season ended, there was no opportunity for the hitter to experience any sort of regression, and so we’re left with their bonkers performance to think about all off-season long. What could a full season the following year bring?! While there have been several players who fit this mold this season, Kyle Lewis is the most recent example.

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Over the last week and a half, it could pay to stream power, picking up available hitters based on the ballpark they will be hitting in. One homer could be the difference between a yoo-hoo shower and requiring another box of tissues. Yankee Stadium (Yankees), Coors Field (Rockies), and Globe Life Park (Rangers) are three of the friendliest parks for hitting and all inflate home runs. So let’s discuss some lightly owned hitters that should be available to stream when they play in those parks.

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9/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Elvis Andrus (2:00)
• Khris Davis (9:55)
• Christian Vazquez/James McCann (13:30)
• Nick Senzel (18:00)
• Eddie Rosario (22:05)
• Justin Smoak (26:16)
• Corey Seager (28:50)
• Rhys Hoskins (32:22)
• Josh Bell (35:47)

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9/11/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Kyle Seager
• Starlin Castro
• Jurickson Profar
• A.J. Pollock

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There’s only three weeks left in the regular season! If you haven’t already done so, now is certainly the time to completely ignore player values and just pick up what you need and drop what you don’t, given your place in the various category standings. One of the easier places to make up ground is stolen bases. So let’s discuss a bunch of lesser owned (all these guys are owned in 60% or less of CBS leagues) hitters who have attempted at least six stolen bases over the last 30 days.

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Ever since his exciting debut in 2014 that came over a small sample size, we’ve been awaiting a full season of strong offensive performance from Jorge Soler. Actually, we didn’t even require a strong performance, we just wanted a full season for once, gosh darn-it! Since that 2014 debut, Soler’s career high in plate appearances has been just 366, thanks to injury after injury. Finally, this year he has surpassed the 500 plate appearance plateau. Not only has he given us his first full season, but he has paired it with strong offensive performance for a true fantasy breakout.

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Seemingly every season, a hitter comes out of nowhere to enjoy an insane couple of month stretch. In 2015, it was Franklin Gutierrez, of all hitters. In 2016, it was Gary Sanchez introducing himself as the next top catcher. In 2017, it was Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins as the newest pure power hitters. And last year of course, it was Luke Voit and Ryan O’Hearn (and one might be inclined to include Max Muncy who did it over a larger sample size). This year with power settling in at record levels, we have several candidates. The best of these candidates is the guy easily leading all batters with at least 120 plate appearances in ISO (.422) and slightly leading in wOBA (.441). His name is Aristides Aquino and unless you’re a fantasy player or Reds fan, you probably never heard of him.

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