A fun activity for me each preseason is comparing my Pod Projections to the Steamer projections. While the forecasts in various categories for most players are negligible, of course there are some that are wildly different. One comparison I made was looking at which hitters I projected for more homers than Steamer. However, rather than compare the raw home run total, which is greatly influenced by the at-bat projection, I computed each projection’s AB/HR ratio. So let’s find out how the guys I identified as having AB/HR upside performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

As has now been an annual tradition, I published a series of Pod Projections before the season begin, and then compared my projection to the rest of the systems available on the player pages. We’ll start the reviews with Whit Merrifield, who came out of nowhere in 2017 to become a fantasy stud, swatting 19 homers and stealing 34 bases. Let’s see how he performed compared to my projection and the computer systems.

Read the rest of this entry »

Looking back, Jesus Aguilar had so many forces working to hold down his pre-season value, I’m amazed some teams rostered him (566th in NFBC ADP). While he had the tools for a breakout, it’s tough to find actionable pre-season moves to prevent similar players from slipping through the cracks. Once he got the opportunity to play, owners should have jumped in to roster him.

The first item to consider in the miss is that Aguilar’s projections weren’t glowing. Of all projected hitters in our pre-season depth charts, he came in at 245th by OPS. Not the best ranking for a 1B, especially compared to his teammate Eric Thames.

Here are the pair’s various OPS projections coming into the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every season a few hitters come out of nowhere to become major fantasy contributors. And by nowhere, I mean no one targeted them at all during draft season, even in 50-man roster draft-and-holds. This past season, Max Muncy, Joey Wendle, and Luke Voit provided fantasy production for nothing. An interesting trait for each of these hitters is that savvy teams targeted them in trades before the breakout. In recent seasons, these breakouts include Chris Taylor. Jose Martinez. and Jesus Aguilar. While the general public doesn’t have the same resources, scouts, and data as major league teams, I found the general traits some teams are looking to acquire.

I asked for help in creating the list. I end up with many responses but I wanted productive hitters on no one’s radar. I removed a suggestion if the hitter was on any top-100 list (e.g. John Hicks) or if they were ever an MLB regular (e.g. Scooter Gennett). In the end, 12 hitters made the cut: Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Luke Voit, Joey Wendle, Jose Martinez, Jesus Aguilar, Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, Daniel Palka, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Justin Turner.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the #2earlymock drafts run by our own Justin Mason, Javier Baez is going 17th and Trevor Story is going 20th among all hitters. The picks are quite high considering Baez was the 58th hitter taken, and Story was 65th in NFBC drafts last year. The pair didn’t have must-draft preseason hype and their suspect plate discipline limited their perceived value. Both exceeded all expectations as they came in at 6th and 7th overall this year. This was a huge miss by the industry and I’m going to see if some traits point to why some low plate discipline players break out and others don’t.

For every Baez and Story, other bad plate discipline hitters failed like Byron Buxton (.383 OPS), Chris Davis (.539 OPS), Miguel Sano (.679 OPS) and Jonathan Schoop (.682 OPS). No obvious difference stood out. While Chris Davis is old, Buxton, Sano, and Schoop should be in their primes. To find out who may break out, I decided to start with the 2018 Bad Plate Discipline Class.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today I continue with my recaps, this time reviewing my early January post touting six home run sleepers. I compiled the list by initially sorting the 2017 Brls/BBE leaderboard in descending order and identifying sleepery hitters. Let’s see how they performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Many September performances can be glossed over because of how many people are checked out on baseball or zeroed in on just their players as they chase down a title. Some just dismiss the month entirely because of the expanded rosters, though I find that quite ridiculous as plenty of players put up their numbers against quality arms in the midst of pennant chases. Here is a standout September from each AL team from a player who could be worth paying attention to in 2019 as well.

AL EAST

Renato Nunez, BAL | 5 HR, .313 AVG in 85 PA

Nunez was a noteworthy prospect in Oakland, but never really clicked and wound up getting waived. After a quick stint in Texas, he ended up in Baltimore where he put some things together in a 60-game run. He closed with a big September and now enters his age-25 season with a chance at a full time role.

Read the rest of this entry »

Touring the league to highlight a player per team whose efforts could’ve slipped past your radar.

National League

Johan Camargo, ATL | .272/.351/.456, 18 HR, 75 RBI

Put up quality offensive effort with dual eligibility at 3B and SS.

Adam Eaton, WAS | .298/.393/.410, 9 SB in 92 G

Posted his normal season production, but it might’ve been missed with just 92 games.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the season coming to a close, now is a good time to look back to see which MLB teams provided fantasy owners with the most valuable offensive resources this season.

This chart looks at players currently ranked in the top twelve at each offensive position (and top fifty at outfield) in both CBS (points) and ESPN (roto) rankings, broken down by team. If you’re curious about which players where ranked where, a more detailed breakdown of the ranks are found here. If a player was eligible at more than one position, they were only included once, and if a player was ranked in the top twelve in one format, but not the other they were not included. If a player was traded, the team which they played the majority of their games with was given credit.

Read the rest of this entry »

As your fantasy team marches into the playoffs, weekly matchups and playing time considerations become more important. Players fighting for playing time or battling nagging injuries can hurt you chances of taking home a title if they are giving you nothing or only playing three times per week. Especially leagues with weekly lineup locks.

While some players are easy to let go, the pedigree and past performance of others can make fantasy owners hesitant to cut or bench players of a certain caliber, but given the time of year, here are some top-150 players that you might consider cutting or benching to give you the best shot at winning in 2018.

Read the rest of this entry »