Steals have become more and more rare these days. The upshot of that is you don’t need as many on your fantasy team to compete, but you still need some! This year isn’t that much different than last as far as SBs, but the top end is down a bit. This time last year, we had three guys with at least 35 SBs (Billy Hamilton 53, Dee Gordon 43, and Trea Turner 35) and this year Turner leads at 32. Last year there were 15 guys with 20+ and 57 at 10+. This year, we have 15 and 52, respectively.

Here are eight superfast guys who could give you a steals boost down the stretch:

Adam Engel OF, Chicago White Sox

Engel’s 30.0 ft/second sprint speed is tied for the third highest in the league behind only Byron Buxton (30.5) and Billy Hamilton (30.1). His stunning defense is earning him some extra playing time with starts in six of the last seven games. While the bat isn’t great (64 wRC+), he has still managed 12 SBs in 330 PA.

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Rougned Odor hasn’t been the only veteran hitter who has turned around his season in a hurry recently. After getting off to an absolutely, incomprehensibly brutal start, Kole Calhoun has been on fire over the last month. Conveniently, Calhoun missed about two and a half weeks in early June due to an oblique strain, so let’s split his season into his pre- and post-injury periods.

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This past weekend, I attended the always incredible SaberSeminar in Boston. It was great time catching up with friends (Dave Cameron sighting) but also to take in some innovative ideas. I decided to share some fantasy applicable topics which were discussed.

Pitch Tunneling

Experimentally determining the “Commit Point” – Evaluating the time it takes a hitter to check his swing by William Clark and Joe Petrich

Pitch Tunneling, Pitch Calling and Expected Outcome: A Former Pitcher’s Perspective by Dan Blewett

Pitching tunneling was brought up several times by several speakers but these two came to the same conclusion. The reaction time for a batter to determine the pitch type may be less than previously calculated. It was thought that a hitter had around 225 ms to 275 ms to decide to swing. It’s possible that the time may be under 200 ms and the batter may be keying off the release point.

Also, if a pitcher is struggling, it might be worth looking over at his release point charts (example with Jon Gray). Make sure all the pitches are clustered together and haven’t been recent moving around.
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You know why we harp so much on trusting the projections? Every single season, there are a slew of hitters who start off sizzling or excruciatingly slow, and because of recency bias, we tend to think this is going to be the new norm for these players. Sure, this ends up being the case for some of them, but for the vast majority, eventually they do perform just as we expected. This is perfectly illustrated by Rougned Odor.

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Man, it was no fun this year being in an AL-Only league, as the biggest name to cross over was Tommy Pham. Last year, he enjoyed a surprise breakout, posting a .398 wOBA, driven by power, speed, and BABIP skillZ. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for him this season, as his wOBA has plummeted to just .320, thanks to a decline in his HR/FB rate and dive in his BABIP. Having lost some playing time in St. Louis recently, he should return to being an every day player in Tampa. How might his new home park impact his performance? Let’s find out.

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The non-waiver trade deadline is almost upon us! So far, it’s been relatively uneventful, but there was one big name that was on the move — the Moose himself, Mike Moustakas. The Brewers traded some of their outfield depth for about two months of Moustakas to boost their chances of making the playoffs. Let’s compare the relevant park factors to to determine how much this change in home parks could impact his performance.

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Jesse Winker and Jake Bauers haven’t set the fantasy world on fire since arriving in the big leagues. Winker, who debuted in 2017, and Bauers, who debuted this season, have been solid contributors to their real life baseball teams, but their inability to hit for power has limited their fantasy value.

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Braves

• Since returning from the DL, Ronald Acuna is leading off with Ender Inciarte batting seventh.
• Charlie Culberson is batting and playing second as Ozzie Albies deals with a hamstring issue.

Brewers

• This team continues to roster too many MLB caliber corner outfielders and first basemen cutting into everyone’s playing time. The team has finally smartened up and is playing Jesus Aguilar every day. Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Eric Thames are battling for the right field spot
• Tyler Saladino (.275/.330/.431) has started 12 straight games at shortstop.
• Hernan Perez has been playing a ton of second base recently so I wondered if he was on a hot streak. Nope since he’s hitting just .241/.290/.397 over past 28 days. The problem is that Brad Miller has been horrible (.203/.242/.305) over the same time frame.

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With many hittes returning from the DL after the All-Star break, I decided to examine American League lineups today and the National League ones tomorrow.

Angels

• With Albert Pujols coming back from the DL, there are four players, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte, and Pujols fighting over the first base and designated hitter spots. I expect Pujols and Ohtani, when healthy, to get the most at-bats. It’s a situation to monitor for a few days to see how the Angels will handle the situation.

Astros

• The lineup set at the top but the team has been cycling some players around to find a serviceable shortstop with Carlos Correa out and little production from left field (.243/.319/.386). Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the answer but he’s hit only .139/.205/.167 in 39 PA so far. It’s a small sample but the Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champs so don’t be surprised if they add an outfielder as insurance.

Athletics

• While the batting order has been mixed up since the All-Star game, generally the same players are being used. The only exception is that Chad Pinder (vs LHP) and Dustin Fowler (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Blue Jays

• Randal Grichuk is playing center field everyday with Kevin Pillar on the DL.
• For owners in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Dwight Smith Jr. who has started in right field the last two games. While the 25-year-old has a little bit of speed and power, his true talent is getting on base (.373 OBP with 12% BB%). His 15% HR/FB rate looks decent but he mainly puts the ball on the ground (50% GB%).
• Lourdes Gurriel is back from the DL and playing with Devon Travis and Aledmys Diaz moving to part-time roles.

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Yesterday, I attempted to discuss the season’s biggest hitter disappointments by comparing each player’s projected CBS ranking to his current actual ranking. Unfortunately, injuries played a bigger role than I realized for several of the players, which explains a good portion of their disappointing fantasy value. Today I’ll discuss the biggest surprises and luckily injuries won’t screw up my analysis this time!

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