Episode 205

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some Spring Training injury news surrounding the AL East (which was purely coincidental that all four items were ALE-related).

*NOTE THERE IS SOME WEIRD ECHOING LATE IN THE EP, NO IDEA WHAT HAPPENED THERE*

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• Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL and will likely need Tommy John surgery.

Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL in his right elbow. Tommy John surgery is almost certainly inevitable. #Mets

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 16, 2015

I went back and looked at his injury indicators and nothing sticks out from last year. The only possible issues I spotted were that he was not an established regular starter and threw hard (95 mph fastball).

Also, let me clear up one item while the main stream media goes crazy with the huge “increase” in pitcher injuries. The current trend is only with elbow injuries. As I found this past fall, days lost to pitcher injuries are transferring from the shoulder to elbow.

Days lost to shoulder injuries reached almost 7,000 in 2008. In 2014, the total days lost was under 3,000. Much of this improvement can be attributed to better exercises for the muscles in the shoulder.

So with the number of shoulder injuries down, something had to give. The number of days lost to elbow injuries went from about 5,000 days in 2008 to over 8,000 in 2014. The days lost just seem to be transferring from the shoulder to the elbow.

People are not talking at all about the time lost to shoulder injuries being down over 50%.

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Episode 204

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss some Spring Training injury news surrounding Drew Smyly, Zack Wheeler, and Addison Reed and finish the news by discussing Kris Bryant’s soaring cost.

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Episode 203

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris do their first base preview!! First, they discuss Eno’s AL LABR team as he now battles with two pitching injuries and then they deep-dive into the deepest position on the diamond:

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• Marcus Stroman will miss all of the 2015 season with a torn ACL. Sadly, there is just nothing to discuss about him until he returns next year. The Blue Jays talked about some of the options for his rotation spot.

Right-hander Aaron Sanchez immediately jumps to the forefront of that discussion as he’ll likely compete with right-hander Marco Estrada and left-hander Daniel Norris for the final two spots on the staff.

“Our plan for Sanchez was always the same,” general manager Alex Anthopoulos insisted Tuesday afternoon. “I think it certainly gives him a better opportunity to start but we still have Estrada being stretched out, still have Norris being stretched out, still have the remainder of camp.

• The earliest Chris Sale could be ready for the season is April 12th. It could take longer.

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An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
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The Steamer and I series concludes as I finish with the last starting pitcher comparisons. Today, I check in on two pitchers of whom the Steamer projections are significantly more optimistic than my Pod Projections.

As per SIERA, Zack Greinke is coming off the second best skills of his career, driven in part by a rebound in his slider usage. He’s managed to post sub-3.00 ERAs for two straight seasons now, which has made him the 10th pitcher off the board on average in NFBC drafts. James Shields hit the free agent jackpot by signing with a National League team and remaining in a pitcher friendly home park. He, too, is loved by drafters, who are nabbing him 22nd among starters in NFBC. Let’s see why Steamer and I disagree on these two fine lads.

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… if this nonsense with his agent(s?) ever clears up.

I feel like Debbie Downer from the classic Saturday Night Live sketch. I found reasons to dislike Yasmany Tomas, and now I’m here trying to find reasons to dislike Hector Olivera. It’s largely because I’m stubborn and would rather die by own fantasy baseball sword than someone else’s. But I haven’t seen any assessment of Olivera’s Cuban National Series (CNS) statistics beyond he hit an impressive .323/.407/.505 in his 10 years in Cuba, so I’ll attempt to expand on this.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After winning both the American League MVP and Cy Young awards back in 2011, Justin Verlander followed up strongly the next season, finishing second in the Cy Young voting. But in 2013, his fastball velocity slipped for a third straight year, which drove a decline in his peripherals and resulted in his highest SIERA mark since 2008. It got even worse last season, as his velocity dipped another mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell to its lowest mark since 2006, and he couldn’t strand runners at the rate he used to, while poor defense behind him added more fuel to the fire. All told, his ERA jumped above 4.00 for just the second time of his career.

At age 32 and with a seemingly clear explanation for his recent struggles in the form of the velocity loss, it’s no surprise that fantasy owners aren’t sure what to expect from Verlander this season. On average, he’s just the 46th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues at pick 186, and his pick range sits between 93 and 253. That’s quite the discount for someone with his track record who may have had just one poor season. So let’s get to the projecting.

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When injury strikes, opportunity arises. This time, Michael Taylor is the beneficiary. Initially expected to step in for Jayson Werth as he recovers from right shoulder surgery, Taylor is suddenly set to enjoy more guaranteed playing time in the wake of Denard Span’s expected absence. Yesterday, Span underwent core muscle surgery, which figures to sideline him for at least four to six weeks. That means that Taylor will now fill in at center field, possibly for the entire first month of the season.

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