• Santiago Casilla blew his first save of the season against the Dodgers today, though a key bobble by Kelby Tomlinson is taking away some of that heat. Casilla loaded the bases with one out, then induced what seemed to be a game-ending double play ball to Tomlinson. Tomlinson bobbled the ball, allowing the run to score, and only getting one out. Casilla’s job is safe for now, but Sergio Romo and Hunter Strickland both pitched scoreless innings, earning themselves holds, and would be next in line for saves. Again, don’t see it happening just yet as a result of today’s blown save since Casilla is not 100% to blame. Romo pitched the 7th and Strickland came in with a runner on in the 8th. Don’t think this is indicative of who is necessarily next in line, just thought it was worth noting.

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Rather than start changing and editing my initial tiers after less than a week of games, I am going to take a page out of Justin Mason’s book and go over some of those undrafted first basemen. The guys you had no room for or simply didn’t think about as those last couple rounds just flew by you.

Unless you are in very deep leagues, you should still have better options available to you at first base. These are guys you should reserve for deeper leagues or if you completed punted on first base or suffered an injury. In no way are these guys you should build your squad around. I tried to key on guys who are garnering relatively regular playing time and can help you in those counting stats, with the last two guys giving a potential boost in BA and OBP.
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It’s Week 1 of the MLB season, so it’s time to obsess over velocity. It’s a topic that several other FanGraphs writers have touched on, including Jeff Sullivan in his article about Felix Hernandez yesterday. As a fantasy player, I try not to overact to early-season velocity changes for established starters, but I do like to peruse the early velocity leaderboard for relief pitchers. Since there is so much bullpen turnover from year to year and since I frankly don’t know many of the young relievers who earn jobs and, in spite of whatever limitations that prevented them from sticking as starters, have a chance to become late-inning relievers in the future, I like to use velocity to identify possible relief sleepers.

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On Monday, I unveiled the first edition of my American League starting pitcher tiers. Of course, it didn’t include every pitcher currently part of a team’s rotation. Don’t feel bad for them, as their day has come. Today, I’ll discuss the remainder of the crop that missed the cut. Do any of these guys have the potential to join the tiered?

Warning: this is a boring list. Try to stay awake while reading about these names.

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Drafts are over and the season is officially here. We are looking at the teams we drafted with pride, believing that this will be our year. We have forgotten about those poor souls that were left behind. Yes, I am talking about the undrafted players. The guys that sit on our waiver wires untouched, hoping for a chance to enter our lineups. They are praying that an owner may sign them to a deal. Read the rest of this entry »

4/1/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Anthony DeSclafani injury/Dan Straily acquisition
• Andrew Miller wrist
• Ross Stripling vs. Carlos Frias for LAD 5th SP

Strategy Section

• 2016 Staff Picks

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“Microphone Check 1,2, what is this?”

Well, it’s not a five foot assassin, but instead it’s my first run at a tiered ranking of the first baseman. Also a week late in my tribute; sorry about that. I appreciate any and all feedback, but do keep in mind these are subjective and based on a predicative nature. Just because I have somebody tiered lower than you do doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go with what you think is best. Naturally. Also, players with a star next to their name played less than 20 games at first base last season, so they may or may not be eligible depending on your format, and they may or may not receive eligibility during the season.

For the astute and avid Rotograph readers, you will notice these rankings differ from the staff rankings we did earlier in March. I hadn’t done as much research for those at the time, so these are more in line with what I think at this moment. Which may change in ten minutes. Alas, the fun of rankings.

In the spirit of subjectivity and my love for music, I have created tiers based on my personal favorite jazz styles. In no way am I saying my top tier is the best style of jazz; just my personal favorite. In a perfect world, we could all somehow discuss jazz and baseball together. Here is my first attempt at doing so. Keep it real!

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Last Friday, I asked our RotoGraphs readers on how they would approach my Tout Wars mixed 12-team head-to-head auction. The strategies stated in the comments were similar to the approach I took. But that is not how the rest of the teams operated and it threw me for a loop.

A person must remember the rules to this league are fairly unique with a head-to-head component making up 80% of  the league’s wins and a roto component being the other 20%. A full rule set can be found here and the abridged set here.

Going back to the comments from Friday’s, here are the approaches the various readers would have taken.

Pitching Strategy

Few high K starters to make minimum IP, RPs otherwise
dparker713
jbona3
David
schulni
HappyFunBall
OutOfTheBox
Brad Johnson Read the rest of this entry »

Ottoneu founder/creator Niv Shah once described Ottoneu as an economic system that just happens to be built for fantasy sports.  The entire platform is finely tuned to bring the stats, rules, and interface together to provide an excellent overall gameplay experience perfectly suited for baseball nerds.

Nerds often like math (which is why baseball nerds love sabermetrics), so let’s spend some time digging into some of the math behind the game of Ottoneu.  This will be a blend of benchmarks and strategy, but overall the goal here is to create a reference for Ottoneu owners looking to win their leagues.

Ottoneu Basics

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About four years ago, Matt Swartz helped me find that strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training for starting pitchers do have some predictive value. It’s very small, of course, but it’s there, and using the data improved the pre-season projection. The findings were validated when Dan Rosenheck completed an exhaustive study and discovered the same thing a year ago. It’s not the surface stats that matter, which we knew, but the underlying skill metrics, like strikeout and walk rates, that hold some value. It’s not much value, but it’s not nothing like some of us may have thought.

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