The Phillies called up Tommy Joseph exactly a week ago, which means I am technically a week late in getting this to fantasy owners looking for some depth at first base. I blame the timing of the Phillies who need to be more cognizant of this writer’s publishing and writing schedule. I intend to touch on Joseph’s past, as well as looking forward to what lies ahead in his future as well, which is a bit difficult with his lack of past experience.
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Stolen bases require a combination of runner speed, aggressiveness, and opportunity, but all too often, we assign all of the credit or blame to runners who either increase or decrease their stolen base totals to their speed. A month and a half into the season, it’s common for runners to be well off of their stolen base pace from last season even if they have not experienced a change in their speed or willingness to steal bases. Before I make any alterations to my expectations for players, I like to take an alternative look at basestealer effectiveness based on their opportunities.

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It’s easy to advise fantasy owners to buy low and sell high, but unless you’re in a league filled with newbies, it’s much more difficult to actually put into practice. It’s far easier to execute a sell low or buy high trade, because we’re all trained to do the buy low, sell high thing. When you’ll selling low, your trade partner may very well think he’s buying low. But you know better. Or at least believe so.

Today, I’ll recommend three American League starting pitchers to sell low on. It’s not typically a strategy that I’m a fan of, especially early in the season when it’s still mostly small sample size zone. But there are certainly changes that can occur in various aspects of a pitcher’s underlying skill set that is driven by various forces that should alter our evaluations and projections moving forward. I think these three are examples of such happenings.

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Welcome to an all Astros edition of the deep league waiver wire! With a series of roster moves, opportunities abound.

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So we all know by now that batted ball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB rate. It’s fairly obvious, as the further the batter hits the ball, the better chance it has of landing on the other side of the fence for a dinger. Adding in the two additional components that compose my xHR/FB rate equation increases the usefulness, but sadly that data is not available just yet. Yesterday, I discussed five hitters whose distances suggest dramatically higher HR/FB rates than have been posted. Today, I’ll look at the bottom of the distance boards and identify five hitters whose HR/FB rates are out of place, and should be lower, perhaps significantly so.

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So we all know by now that batted ball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB rate. It’s fairly obvious, as the further the batter hits the ball, the better chance it has of landing on the other side of the fence for a dinger. Adding in the two additional components that compose my xHR/FB rate equation increases the usefulness, but sadly that data is not available just yet. So today, we’ll look at the top of the distance boards and I’ll identify five hitters whose HR/FB rates are out of place, and should be higher, perhaps significantly so.

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Tony Cingrani recorded his third save today coming into the game with the bases loaded and one out and a five run cushion. He retired the next two batters to lock down the save after blowing one on Wednesday. No official announcement has been made regarding his status as closer, but for now if you really need a closer, you can roll with Cingrani. How long he holds the role is another story as he has struck out 15 over 17 innings, but has also walked 10. His HR/FB rate is also way below his average, so if that normalizes, that can be a recipe for disaster accompanied with those walks. Personally, I’m staying away from this situation despite Cingrani seemingly having the 9th inning job because I am not sure how many save opportunities the Reds are going to have to make it worth risking my ERA and WHIP. Go after him at your own risk.
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So the Phillies bullpen is becoming a strength after a rough start, as Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez were perfect in the 8th and 9th, each striking out one. Neris continues to impress by not allowing a run in 17 of his 20 appearances, posting a 1.64 ERA (3.32 FIP). The FIP is high probably because of the 3 home runs he has given up, but outside of that he has looked very strong and also earned his ninth hold of the year for those of you counting. Gomez has also been such a pleasant surprise, despite really only a slight uptick in both his K/9 and K%. The ERA is down from last year (3.01 to 2.61), but the FIP has gone up (3.25 to 3.63). Still has been an excellent closer so far, but the question is how long will this last?
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A few weeks ago, I joined a league after an owner dropped out last minute. The only reason I joined was because I thought the previous owner did a nice job compiling this squad, or else I wouldn’t have touched it. It’s a 14-team head-to-head points league where you play three different owners at once. There are some funky rules in the league (which I’m always game for), but there is one that caught me by surprise regarding position eligibility.

To start the season, players have traditional positional eligibility (20 games at a position). So when I took over this team, I had Anthony Rendon at 2B and Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. No problem. Then on Sunday, the day after waivers run mind you, somebody informed me that both these players would not be eligible for those positions next week, which confused the hell out of me. After much research and a bunch of clarifying questions, I discovered this crazy rule I have never encountered. By May 1^st, positional players must play ten games at a position in order to continue to receive eligibility at that position. Since Rendon hasn’t played any second base, he lost second base eligibility. Encarnacion also lost 1B eligibility because he has played less than 10 games at first, but he still has a chance to regain that (he now has ten games at 1B).

In honor of this new format I encountered, and the craziness that is Friday the 13^th, I am going to look at other first baseman who may have lost 1B eligibility in leagues similar to this one, as well as looking at players who did not have 1B eligibility, but are on their way to gaining that eligibility. I intentionally left off catchers because you probably shouldn’t be starting more than the required amount, and if you are, go to your waive wire and find an actual first baseman.
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Things do not look good for Felix Hernandez. He is striking out close to two fewer batters and walking close to two more batters per nine than he has over the course of his career. His ERA continues to be excellent at 2.27, but his declining peripherals suggest that Hernandez is no longer the elite pitcher he was over his first 11 seasons. Meanwhile, it’s hard not to believe that his diminished fastball, which at 89.7 average mph has dropped below 90.0 for the first time, is the primary culprit. I’m not telling you anything here you didn’t already know if you have been a regular FanGraphs reader over the last month.

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