Five Potential HR/FB Rate Surgers
So we all know by now that batted ball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB rate. It’s fairly obvious, as the further the batter hits the ball, the better chance it has of landing on the other side of the fence for a dinger. Adding in the two additional components that compose my xHR/FB rate equation increases the usefulness, but sadly that data is not available just yet. So today, we’ll look at the top of the distance boards and I’ll identify five hitters whose HR/FB rates are out of place, and should be higher, perhaps significantly so.
For reference, the unweighted average HR/FB rate of all hitters with at least 300 feet of fly ball and home run distance was 19.7%.
| Player | Distance (Ft) | HR/FB |
| Jose Abreu | 315 | 12.5% |
| Stephen Piscotty | 311 | 12.5% |
| Mark Reynolds | 306 | 11.8% |
| Jayson Werth | 305 | 13.6% |
| Kendrys Morales | 299 | 9.1% |
There’s absolutely no need to worry about Jose Abreu’s somewhat pedestrian start. His batted ball distance ranks seventh highest in baseball, so more of those fly balls will begin leaving the park sooner or later. Aside from a rebound in power, his BABIP should jump, as his batted ball profile is almost identical to last year. I highly doubt you could buy him at a discount, but if you’re an owner, hold tight.
Stephen Piscotty is at it again. In late January, I gushed about his batted ball distance and resultant xHR/FB rate in 2015. Then, his distance finished at 301 feet, which is 10 feet less than where it stands today. And although his HR/FB rate has inched up, it’s far below where you would expect it to be for the man who owns the 12th best distance in baseball. Some of that is Busch Stadium, which sports the fifth lowest right-handed home run park factor. But Piscotty’s Away HR/FB rate isn’t dramatically higher than his home mark. Either Piscotty is due for a serious power surge, or he’s the outlier that is doing something, or not doing something, that my equation and/or batted ball distance alone, is failing to account for. The good news, at least, is that he is proving that last year’s power spike was for real.
With Ben Paulsen now out of the picture, first base in Colorado is all Mark Reynolds‘. We all salivated at the prospect of Reynolds and his huge power playing half his game at Coors field. But 99 at-bats in, and he has just two homers and a career low HR/FB rate. It’s certainly not due to Reynolds not hitting the ball far, as his distance mark ranks 21st in baseball and it represents his highest since 2010, when he posted a nearly 20% HR/FB rate. Coors Field also reduces strikeouts, which hasn’t shown up yet in Reynolds’ strikeout rate, while his fly ball rate shoudl rebound somewhat, although Coors also boosts line drive rate. So there are multiple paths to power improvement. He could eek out some 12-team mixed league value, even despite the imminent regression of his insane .484 BABIP.
We can never be sure anymore how healthy the 36-year-old Jayson Werth is, but a 300+ batted ball distance certainly suggests he’s good to go. Amazingly, that would mark the highest distance since I have data for, going back to 2007. It makes him less likely to sustain such distance, but in the event that he does manage to, that HR/FB rate should be on the rise. Since his fly ball rate is also sitting at a career high at 50%, the home run upside could be substantial.
Kendrys Morales obviously knew he would be the subject of this article, so he homered last night, which is going to push his HR/FB rate a little closer to where it should be given his distance. That 299 foot distance would represent a career high, going back to 2009. And yet his HR/FB rate was sitting at the second lowest of his career heading into last night’s games! Like Werth, he’s also hitting more fly balls, which will help drive his home run total even higher once his HR/FB rate rebounds. Also like Werth, Morales is looking for a BABIP surge to get his batting average back into respectable territory.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Bryce harper hr/fb 25.6%, average fly ball 284 ft, #119 in majors.
He may very well be included in tomorrow’s list. Last year though, his distance wasn’t elite either and his HR/FB rate elite. So perhaps the equation is missing something with him. Of course, last year, his distance was a lot higher than this year.
Anyway you look at it Morales has been hot garbage. Roster him at your peril
He was just dropped in my 12-team mixed league, so I just very well might. He clearly still has the power and has battled through a low BABIP. Literally the definition of a good buy low.
I dropped him in my 12 team mixed – I have been using Saunders instead.
Who would’ve imagined before this season that B.J. (Melvin) Upton would sit at #35 among batted ball distance leaders? A couple of yrs. ago it appeared that his career was all but over, but now his walk rate is up, his K rate is down from his worst yrs. and his hard hit ball % is the best it has been in years. If he didn’t play half his games in San Diego, his HR total would surely be higher.
Mike: I’d like to ask you about CarGo (Rockies) in a 16 team keeper points league. I’m nervous that he’ll be traded since the Rocs allegedly tried moving him during the offseason. His batted ball distance is good at #51, but you’d expect that for a guy who plays half of his games in Coors Field and has played 5 games in Arizona.
I’ve received an offer of HanRam + Winker (big fan of his and expect his power to eventually emerge)from one owner and an offer of Domingo Santana + a player YTBD from another. My other OFs are JDM, Polanco, Dickerson and Rasmus (along with Dietrich for the time being), so I’m not hurting for power there.
Do you like any of these offers? I like an equal mixture of young and old in a keeper league, and my IF is getting old with the exception of Corey Seager. Thanks in advance for any suggestions/insights.
Yeah, Upton renaissance has largely gone unnoticed. SD still really hampers his fantasy relevance though unfortunately.
Are there any salary or rounds involved, or just keep your best players? HanRam has just stopped walking, he may actually lose value in points leagues. I really like Winker too and agree on the power. Those walks boost his value in your format and should make him undervalued. That said, I think CarGo should get you more.
Obviously impossible to evaluate the Santana offer without knowing the other player, but he’s a good guy to target in a points format as his value jumps.
Thanks! No money or rounds involved (snake draft) though I could ask to exchange a higher draft pick for a lower one as part of the deal. I appreciate the advice.
If nothing else, I fully support a trade for Winker
Re: Upton, by hampered fantasy relevance I assumed you meant well worth a speculative add.
I went ahead and added him in my 12 team 6×6 (OBP and slug%) league….assume he holds at least slightly better potential in an OBP league with that 11.6% walk %.
Speaking of power, and since I haven’t seen any posts on him, thoughts on Byung-ho Park so far? After striking out in half of his PAs through the couple weeks or so of the season, he’s been quietly fantastic. Farthest average HR distance of any player with at least 7 dingers (he has 9), great FB rate, power to all fields, doesn’t pop the ball up. He strikes out a lot, but has a good walk rate.
My take: he looks a lot like a right-handed version of Chris Davis with a few less walks and a couple more steals (albeit in a worse lineup).
8th highest distance at 313 feet, very impressive. Got the strikeout rate down closer to where I was projecting him, but it’s still very high of course. I can’t believe he’ll maintain a 30% HR/FB rate, but a 40%+ fly ball rate is good.
He has clearly been better than I expected, but of course you had to be conservative having no idea how the power would translate. I think Davis is a good comp, though Park has posted a weak line drive rate.
The secret to Park’s power may be in his launch angles. I don’t recall seeing another player with so consistently good angles on his hard hit balls.
On the other side of this equation, Reynolds HR are down because he has a lower launch angle over the past 2 years, so while he still hits the ball hard and far, his LD rate has soared at the expense of his FB rate plus he is hitting more to center and opposite field. I don’t expect much of a HR recovery, but curious if he can keep cranking out the LD to keep up this huge BABIP.
Would you be able to overlay distance, hr/fb and spray charts? The Harper thing sticks out to me, because as a dead pull hitter if he goes down the line, his HR’s obviously have a shorter distance to go than someone who uses CF more often. For Piscotty, 5 of his 12 career HR’s were to almost straight away CF. When he hits it hard, he hits it straight.
Yup, angle is one of the components of my xHR/FB rate, which is missing in this analysis, but is very important. Still, it’s very difficult to make up for just a slightly above average distance with elite marks in the other two components.
The same would be true of Piscotty, but the opposite. It certainly explains some of it, but suggests there is further downside/upside, since distance is more repeatable.
So out of curiosity who rank 6-10 on your list of potential HR/FB surgers?
I just cherry picked names, didn’t make an ordered list. What I did was match up HR/FB rates with distances, and anyone with high distances but mediocre HR/FB rates stuck out and I highlighted. There were a bunch of others that were close calls, don’t remember who though!
Morales was also acquitted well by the xOBA piece posted here last week. Seems like he’s been very unlucky.
That’s good to know, as that validates that the two methods are sound if they are recommending the same player.
Doesn’t it just mean that they are consistent?
How about those HR/FB% that’s up from last season that may indicate a buy high? Altuve has added around 25ft. Castellanos has added 17 I think while increasing the pull side angle 7deg. Great combo.
Yup, I do those articles too! The distance validations group. Perhaps I’ll do that next week.