Who’s inducing more swings and misses? Let’s take a gander at the American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% marks have most surged versus last year. Perhaps it’s added velocity, a new pitch, or change in pitch mix driving the spike. Let’s find out.
Injury replacements is the theme of this week’s waiver wire. It was probably the theme of last week’s too. And the week prior. Basically, if you don’t own the guy who got injured, injuries are good! Opportunities!
I was mistaken yesterday in thinking this version of the Bullpen Report would come out early the next morning. Sorry if this caused any confusion, but this is good news for those night owls who will get the BR earlier than expected. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I discussed five players whose early season home run totals have like totally shocked the world. Clearly, I missed a couple of obvious names and some of you commented reminding me of such. So let’s get to the rest of those shocking hitters sitting on home run totals we never expected at this point in the season.
Good morning! Coming at you from a different time after a late slate of games, and the same may be true for the 14th. Apologies to all the night owls, who may just need to pull a couple of all-nighters. Ok, onto the report.
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Contrary to what you might assume given my status as a veteran RotoGraphs writer and member of the Tout Wars and LABR leagues, I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to players on none of my fantasy teams. So every so often, I express surprise, or perhaps even shock, when I peruse the day’s box scores and notice a batting average or counting stat from a player at a level far off from our expectations. “Player X has 15 homers already?!?!” is how I will frequently react. Let’s discuss some of these players.
Yesterday I had mentioned that the Rockies had not announced a closer. Well, that was wrong as Weiss named Carlos Estevez as their closer while McGee is out. This came after Estevez recorded his first save and Weiss had said earlier that Estevez would be sharing duties with Jason Motte. Must have been nice for Estevez owners to hear their guy would get most of the saves, right? That was until Boone Logan got the one out save today, after Motte started the 9th off retiring the first two batters. He then walked his third hitter, and then Weiss called on Logan to get the last out as he earned his first save of the season. This wasn’t a case of Weiss going against his word. Instead, Estevez was due some rest after throwing 28 pitches on Friday and closing out last night’s game despite Weiss saying he wanted to avoid that. This was just a normal day of rest for Estevez, and he should be getting the rest of the save opportunities. I left it at Yellow because it is a Colorado pitcher and I don’t think the Rockies will hesitate to pull him if he began to struggle in the 9th.
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I understand that BABIP data is not necessarily complete data. However, I do think there is some value in looking at what players’ BABIP looks like relative to their careers. For this article, I just explored qualified 1B according to Fangraphs data and took out rookies (think: Byung Ho Park) since we don’t have past data to compare it to. Again, this data should not significantly alter your fantasy plans, but is worth considering when looking to buy or sell the MLB qualified first basemen.
For this table, I simply subtracted Career BABIP from the players’ 2016 BABIP. I could’ve included more players, but I wanted to start small instead of filtering out every single player with 1B eligibility regardless of sample size. A positive difference means that a player is outperforming their BABIP, whereas a negative difference means the opposite where a player is underperforming their career BABIP. Here is what the table looks like:
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Clayton Kershaw is ridiculously good. You know this. I know this. There is not much to say about him for fantasy owners other than you should start him every time in every format. But perhaps because I hit my dog days of summer two months early this season, I wanted to write an article about Kershaw to wrap my head around just how good he has been.
For the purposes of this article, I am going to rely on a stat called Game Score, which Bill James came up with to compare starts to one another. You can look up exactly how Game Score is calculated here. Unless you are in a format that rewards pitchers for getting outs, Game Score is not a perfect proxy for the fantasy value of a start, but it does reward pitchers for strikeouts and penalize them for earned runs, hits, and walks, all of which play into the standard rotisserie categories. Meanwhile, Game Score is a convenient way to place one number on a start that reflects its quality.
Throughout his career, Danny Duffy has shuffled between the Royals starting rotation and their bullpen. Let’s compare his underlying skills in each role:
| Role | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | SwStr% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA |
| Starter | 18.6% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 36.3% | 42.1% | 15.1% | 8.3% | 0.288 | 75.5% | 8.7% | 3.89 | 4.48 |
| Reliever | 31.2% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 43.4% | 34.9% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 0.298 | 79.2% | 3.4% | 2.08 | 2.48 |
