Last year, I determined that pitcher batted ball distance allowed was correlated with HR/FB rate to a reasonable degree. This was fairly obvious, though the correlation was much lower than I expected, and less significant than that of hitters. It’s why I rarely discuss pitcher batted ball distance, along with the fact it doesn’t correlate from year to year all that well. But the correlation is there and it does convey meaning. We could run the same analysis for pitchers, comparing their distances with HR/FB rates to identify those due for improvement or regression. So today I’ll look at American League starting pitchers with highly inflated HR/FB rates, but distances that suggest major improvement is on the horizon.

While some of these players will obviously improve due to how high their HR/FB rates are, you might wonder if that improvement means a 10% mark going forward or a 14% mark the rest of the way. This analysis should help form those expectations.

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I had no idea how I was going to follow up my extremely well-received article from last week, but then I realized it is the last Wednesday of the month which means it is time for my AL Outfield Tiers! Hooray! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s deep league waiver time. Please contain your excitement.

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Last week, I identified five hitters whose batted ball distance suggested better HR/FB rate days may be ahead and another five hitters who may be in for a sudden HR/FB rate decline. That’s one way to use a hitter’s average home run and fly ball distance — as a predictive metric to speculate on improvers and regressers moving forward. The other use is to validate as a backwards looking tool. Player X’s HR/FB rate has declined, has his batted ball distance plummeted as well? The batter is seemingly at greater risk of maintaining that decreased HR/FB rate if it came with a similar trend in his distance. Of course, he may improve the distance, in which case the HR/FB rate would rebound. But we still want to see the two match up.

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Last week, I identified five hitters whose batted ball distance suggested better HR/FB rate days may be ahead and another five hitters who may be in for a sudden HR/FB rate decline. That’s one way to use a hitter’s average home run and fly ball distance — as a predictive metric to speculate on improvers and regressers moving forward. The other use is to validate as a backwards looking tool. Player X’s HR/FB rate has spiked, has his batted ball distance surged as well? The batter would seemingly have a better shot at sustaining that increased HR/FB rate if it came with a similar trend in his distance. Of course, he may not sustain the distance, in which case the HR/FB rate would fall. But we still want to see the two match up.

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After two rough outings in mid-May, Steve Cishek has bounced back in his last two save opportunities pitching two clean innings, and earning his 12th save today. The heart of the Seattle bullpen pitched well tonight, as Joaquin Benoit bounced back after giving up a run in his first appearance coming off the DL by pitching a clean inning today. Nick Vincent was also perfect today, as he has not allowed a run in five straight games, and could be inching his way up to the second in line designation. Vincent has appeared in twenty games this season and has only allowed an earned run in 3 of those appearances. He has 24 K’s in 19.1 innings with only 2 walks. For leagues that count holds, he can be a valuable asset right now as he earned his 9th hold of the year, and will help in the rest of your categories outside of saves (at least, so far).
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Sam Dyson was immediately thrust into action after being named closer for the Rangers, and his first appearance was not so hot, despite earning the save. He faced five batters, giving up two hits and one run, while striking out one. Tonight was a different, cleaner story as Dyson pitched a perfect inning earning his 4th save of the season. The rest of the Rangers bullpen has also been strong this weekend, particularly Jake Diekman striking out four over the pas two innings. Diekman is sporting a career best 35% K rate this season, as well as a career-low 6.2% BB rate. Based on usage, Diekman is certainly next in line if Dyson ends up struggling, but may not get the role because he is one of two lefties in the Rangers pen right now. Matt Bush is the sexy name right now, as he has impressed in his small sample so far in his call-up. Tonight he earned his first hold, going through the heart of the Astros line-up, giving up his first baserunners this season. He still struck out two and managed to get out of the mini-jam he created. I don’t see Dyson losing the closer role in the near future, so Diekman and Bush appear to be guys to lean on for those holds. We’ll also monitor Tolleson’s usage moving forward to see if all trust has been lost, or if he will be a primary source for holds as well.

Carson Smith was placed on the disabled list yesterday after returning to the Red Sox on May 3. He has only pitched in 3 games this season, and felt soreness in his elbow after pitching a long outing against Oakland on May 9th. Smith was supposed to be a major addition to the Red Sox pen, and although John Farrell does not think he will need surgery, there is always concerns when it comes to the elbow. Junichi Tazawa has pitched in that 7th inning role and has been excellent this season posting a 1.58 ERA (2.47 FIP) striking out 31.8% of the hitters he has faced. I wouldn’t be surprised if he soon takes over the 8th inning role, as Koji Uehera has not been his typical dominant self. The K’s are slightly down and the BB’s are slightly up. His ERA  is up to 3.94 (3.09 FIP), which isn’t a huge alarm for concern, but Tazawa has just been that good.

Miguel Castro made his first appearance yesterday since being placed on the DL, pitching a scoreless 8th and surrendering only a double. I moved him back into the grid as second in line, but can easily see him jumping into the first in line very shortly. Castro has impressed in his brief appearances this season, but so has Carlos Estevez. Colorado has some nice arms in their pen and I am curious to see how this scenario plays out the whole season. I predicted McGee to get 40 saves in my bold prediction piece, and I think he is still in line for that. He just has unexpected protection before him, and this would go a long way to legitimizing part of Colorado’s pitching staff.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

The Phillies called up Tommy Joseph exactly a week ago, which means I am technically a week late in getting this to fantasy owners looking for some depth at first base. I blame the timing of the Phillies who need to be more cognizant of this writer’s publishing and writing schedule. I intend to touch on Joseph’s past, as well as looking forward to what lies ahead in his future as well, which is a bit difficult with his lack of past experience.
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Stolen bases require a combination of runner speed, aggressiveness, and opportunity, but all too often, we assign all of the credit or blame to runners who either increase or decrease their stolen base totals to their speed. A month and a half into the season, it’s common for runners to be well off of their stolen base pace from last season even if they have not experienced a change in their speed or willingness to steal bases. Before I make any alterations to my expectations for players, I like to take an alternative look at basestealer effectiveness based on their opportunities.

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It’s easy to advise fantasy owners to buy low and sell high, but unless you’re in a league filled with newbies, it’s much more difficult to actually put into practice. It’s far easier to execute a sell low or buy high trade, because we’re all trained to do the buy low, sell high thing. When you’ll selling low, your trade partner may very well think he’s buying low. But you know better. Or at least believe so.

Today, I’ll recommend three American League starting pitchers to sell low on. It’s not typically a strategy that I’m a fan of, especially early in the season when it’s still mostly small sample size zone. But there are certainly changes that can occur in various aspects of a pitcher’s underlying skill set that is driven by various forces that should alter our evaluations and projections moving forward. I think these three are examples of such happenings.

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